If masks work. Most places are supposedly covid safe. Why are cases rising.

[LetsPlayAGame20]

Genuine question that's juts popped into my mind.

Surely if cases are rising and majority are following rules. Why are cases rapidly increasing

This shows the percentage of cases in different settings for last week - enough evidence for you?

I like the picture, but no. The question is about causes. All children go to school so wherever they catch it it is reported as being in a school.

I would love to see the average number of positive cases in school bubbles that have been sent home. That might be informative.

Most of the spread is through close social contact. Masks help but social distancing and limiting social contacts are more important.

Schools are very unsafe. The government rule is to force attendance by prosecuting parents if they don’t send their children in.

Where I am, people have gotten to the point of only wearing them when required - so they people will put them on entering a shop and take them off as they leave. I live next to a corner shop and the pavements here are regularly clogged with people pausing to put them on or take them off (though some have mask lanyards now that makes all that easier with less touching the mask -- I have mixed feelings on this).

There was far more consistent use of them back in April before they were required. I'm not sure if it's just burnout or frustration at the inconsistent rules or what, but it's been weird watching how it's changed over the last few months.

@ComicePear

The piechart is meaningless without a source. It could be referring to a different month or a different country or anything.

Here you go, as a bar chart. Source PHE page 19

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

Is there any data for the actual size of outbreaks in schools? So we can see that it is 10 people rather than 2?

'I would like to see the average number of positive cases in school bubbles that have been sent home.' It would be great if we had that data, but I don't think it's published as such. Journalists should get on the case but they are too busy covering the situation in universities as it has more shocking images...

In my local area in East London, over 30 schools are partially shut. But what we don't know is - usually it takes one child with positive test to either send home children who had close contact with that child, a form, a class or a bubble. What we need to know is how many children test positive during the 14 day quarantine period, and I believe that families are under no obligation to tell the school if a child becomes ill at home. THey can, and they should, but there is no legal obligation to do so. So realistically, schools don't know how many pupils the virus is affecting. If we had a good track and trace system, we would be able to know and schools could adjust their measures accordingly, but they don't know. It's a bit crap.

"Covid secure"

You do realise thats just a catchphrase. Masks +social distancing reduce the risk. They dont actually make anywhere secure, especially indoor places with lots of people and air conditioning/heating Or they shout/sing.

'Covid Secure' just means somewhere meets all the current Government guidelines. This varies according to the type of setting and is about what they consider to be an acceptable level of risk for that purpose rather than no/minimum risk. On the face of it this makes sense- for example, the benefit for everyone of children being back in school makes it worth taking a slightly higher risk than, for example, having a party. However, most of the guidelines seem to be more about what the Government agenda is this week than a realistic appraisal of benefit v risk.

There's also the small issue of the fact that the virus is spreading in the actual real world and not the imaginary world that the guidelines seem to apply to. Taking schools as an example, guidelines say that teachers should not wear masks but should stay 2m away from children and other staff members- not sure how this is possible. They also say that rooms should be well ventilated- in most schools I have been in this is impossible in some rooms and in others the options are no ventilation or freezing cold with rain coming in.

The there's the small matter of the Government doing an amazing job of demonstrating to the public that they don't actually believe the rules matter (Cummings etc) and don't really have a clue what they are or why. So hardly a surprise that many people don't follow

People don't follow the rules correctly.
A lot of transmission happens in places where masks aren't worn (e.g. at home).
There's an increase in testing, so more cases come to light.
Masks aren't as effective as people think they are.
"Covid secure" doesn't actually exist - all we can do is mitigate the impact.

The one school who tested all the kids had 40/1140 i think infected.

If there are 3.5% of pupils coming into school infected then the school should be shut. It's too high and unfair on the staff and they would be in and out like yoyos. It would be one in every class of 30! And much higher than say 200/100000 which would be 0.2%
In fact testing all schools with children with cases would probably locate lots of the asymptomatic spreaders as once youve confirmed the case the whole family SI vs what is happening now is just the contact is SI but if you assume that either the kid catches it at school or a school has a lot of cases the parents and family members are likely infected too. And going about their business and to work.

Mask wearing in shod etc makes a minuscule difference to the spread of coronavirus

Shops

There's no such thing as Covid Secure

What we need to know is how many children test positive during the 14 day quarantine period, and I believe that families are under no obligation to tell the school if a child becomes ill at home

I completely agree. Given that you are infectious before you have symptoms that would be really helpful to know.

Queen a lot that ger ill while Si for contact would still need to be off after the 14d for contact though.
If they got ill day 5 they would be off till day 15 in total.
I think someone showed though that if 1 does get ill the whole bubble needs to isolate until 14d from that ones symptoms onset. Which doesn't make sense as no contact. But it is possible for half the class to be asymptomatically infected on day 5 so homefully their contagious period would be over nearly by the time they go back.But if a few got asymptomatically on day 11 they will still be contagious until say day 21 and back in school for a week.

Perusal of recent threads (e.g. current one about a children's birthday party) suggests that there are plenty of people not following rules ...

@LetsPlayAGame20

Genuine question that's juts popped into my mind.

Surely if cases are rising and majority are following rules. Why are cases rapidly increasing

Theres numerous threads about "can i still have my child's party even though there is 15 of them and im in an area of local lockdown?"

That might be a clue.

Aside from household transmission the data from PHE is quite clear. I don’t understand why people still question this.

The thing is, we ramped up testing at the same time schools and universities went back, it would be interesting to see % people tested during September by age vs say July and August..... the sceptic in me says a lot more school age people are being tested so stands to reason that the positive cases will be higher for that populous!

I know of 3 school "bubbles" that have burst and the group sent home for 14 days after 1 child in each bubble tested positive. In all 3 instances not a single one of the other children in the bubble presented any symptoms or needed tested, which would suggest is ISNT being spread in schools and more likely being taken into schools by children who have caught it from family members/elsewhere.

There are just so many variables and we've not had any periods of testing where the focus of testing were the same groups, so we simply can't compare the data!

Example, look at how many deaths there were in April as a % of positive tests, it was massively higher than now but of course it would be, in April we were only testing care settings and hospital admissions so only the most severe cases! All this tells me is that Covid was just as rife back in April as it is now, we just didn't know about it because we weren't testing.

Also I agree that maybe there is some logic about masks and viral load, why is it that cases are high now but deaths and hospital admissions aren't as high??

Because the majority aren't complying with the rules? Maybe they are only complying with some, the ones they agree with.

200 students from Coventry uni having an illegal party in the early hours of this morning.

People piling out of pubs not attempting to socially-distance etc etc.

People not wearing masks in retail premises because they don't wish to (who can't be questioned as we aren't allowed to in case they are exempt).

Maybe the virus is airborne so only keeping 2 metres away from others outside is based on a false premise?

Who knows?

@LetsPlayAGame20

Yes ds is a massive year group bubble of around 200 I think. He said they face eachother at tables as tables don't fit other ways.. There is one way systems on corridors but his head of year has said if it means it's going to take 5 min to follow the loop to the right but your next class is 4 doors to the left don't worry and go the quickest way. Theyve given up trying to make kids wear masks in corridors and places because a large % didn't want to wear them. Da had 4 of his stolen!. I haven't the funds to keep buying them with enough to last.

So why are you under the illusion that schools are "covid secure"?

How is your son having masks stolen from his bag or pocket?

I think you misunderstand @LetsPlayAGame20

Masks reduce the spread by around 3-6%.

That means for every person with Covid, up to 97% per cent can still pass it on, regardless of masking up or not. masks simply help a tiny bit.

"Covid Secure" is just a buzzword. It doesn't really exist in any setting where large numbers of people don't social distance, don't wear masks and there's poor ventilation ie all educational settings in the UK
And don't get me started on "bubbles" - a bubble, especially the giant ones in UK schools, is not designed to stop infection, it is only designed to assist with track and trace. It's a post-infection measure not a preventative measure.
It means we have at least 10 million kids, half a million teachers, tens of thousands of additional staff plus all their associated households and transport links inter-connected. So that's a big reason why cases are still rising. It's herd immunity-lite.

The school bubbles bursting number can be really misleading. The average secondary school has 1000 pupils. If 0.02% of children test positive (1 in 5000) then 20% of schools could have a year sent home.

We are going to have to stop sending years home if one child tests positive.