Are schools the reason for the surge?

[NebularNerd]

Thousands of people mixing daily with no social distancing.

Children pass the virus on, as BJ has said recently (despite previously saying otherwise).

Surely even if other measures are put in place, the numbers will continue to rise?

Are schools behind the surge?

Counting #cases now to compare to #cases in March/April is a mistake as the two are not comparable numbers at all.
Back in March/April only those admitted to hospital with suspected Covid were tested. The hundreds of thousands not sick enough to need a hospital were never tested...and a handful were sick enough because they ended up dying at home or in a care home.

Today, you have key essential workers like NHS staff and grocery delivery drivers being tested weekly. There is mass testing going on of anyone and their family if one person develops symptoms. Yet, even with the mass testing, there are not enough tests to go around. But undoubtedly because there IS a lot more testing going on, more cases are being officially identified. Cases that were not counted because there was no as much testing back in March/April.

I’d look at # hospitalisation and # deaths to see if there is an actual surge. And look at that...these numbers are still low compared to March/April.

Walkesen

Which is why before school opened, government promised us they could test, track and trace.

They have renegaded on that promise and left us blindfolded like at the beginning.

eventually though the plan was to do heard immunity and surely this is part of Cummings plan. Let school return in September and get school age pupils to be infected through the early autumn - then when winter arrives its just aged people again at risk?

I could be giving the government to much credit here...?

I don’t think anyone is saying it categorically doesn’t spread in schools. People are saying that it was spreading before schools opened. In an age group that don’t go to school. So it’s not that schools are immune, it’s that other places/people are feeding the rise.

From the ONS report for this week:
‘In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) aged 2 to 11 years, 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years. Smaller increases are also evident in those aged 35 to 49 years and 50 to 69 years.’
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandandwales18september2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
Graphs in this document show the increases for each age group. Yes they did start to rise BEFORE schools went back across the whole of the UK but it still means there are more positive cases in children who attend school, and more cases that won’t have been identified in this age group, who will have been at school.

The key word is yet.

It's not schools yet.

However, the "breaks" can be applied more easily in schools as long as there's enough tests to identify who has it.

Whats concerning me is that in the NE it's near impossible to get a test locally at the moment.

If the local guidance is followed (doubtful from what I've hear among the partying lot on Osborne Road) we may see how it could be schools actually generating it due to asymptomatic pupils, as technically that may be the only place they're able to catch it.

There's mixed messages. PHE: "Send then in with a cold." Scientists: "Snotty nose can be a symptom in children."

Schools, pupils and staff, especially primary where there's no masks for staff or pupils, are massive sitting viral attracting ducks in a huge Petri dish experiment.

The twats in London in charge of this disaster can clearly get a test much more easily and aren't having to live and work like this.

I went to the supermarket yesterday. I had to look for the stand with hand sanitiser as it was a little way from the entrance. After I used it I stepped back to apply some emollient because the alcohol in sanitisers is making my eczema very bad and while I did that I watched other customers coming in. I was so shocked how few people even looked around for the sanitiser let alone took the few steps over to use it that I started to count them. Out of about 50 people who entered while I watched only 5 sanitised their hands on entry. I think it was probably a case of the sanitiser being out of sight so it went out of their mind. If that 90% of customers not following the fundamental rule of keeping their hands clean are indicative of habits across the country it’s no wonder the numbers are rising.

There was always going to be a increase when schools went back and people returned to work, sadly the government did not prepare for this, not enough tests etc..

I also think the “eat out to help out” added to the rise in numbers, since pubs and restaurants reopened the numbers have been going back up. Schools here have only been back for 2 weeks and numbers started rising before then.

But it's starting to be schools who are picking up the baton.

The starting point, particularly in the NE, was shit.

Yes. Community and family transmission initially, but the child then spreads it in school, so it then transmits like wildfire, as schools are pétri dishes for germs, even when extra hygiene measures are in place. Other children then take it home to families and their families get ill. Yes..

But there aren't loads of cases in schools. There have been lots of school closures because of one positive case in a bubble. I guess we need a bit more time to tell but there havent been that many outbreaks where dozens in a bubble have tested positive?

I'm in Lancashire, lucky for me on the border of Bolton , reading loads of local (from a work perspective, I work with schools across the county) schools having cases, daily now.
But our restrictions don't come into enforcement until Tuesday, so everyone having one last weekend blowout. Where is the reasoning behind it, when the NE restrictions where more or less locked down overnight? For me, it's not the schools, it's the revellers who are behind this.

It's a huge coincidence if them reopening hasn't lead to the increase. It's been the single biggest change to happen in September - the time of the largest increases since March. Everything else have been open and used for much longer.

Of course the government can't admit that though.
And many other people would rather not admit that school reopening must be a huge contributor to the rise in cases.

Schools need to be open. Children need to be in school and to be educated. Parents need to be able to work.

But of course having several hundred people mixing in close quarters every day will have an impact.

Certainly Newcastle city council had identified worrying clusters linked to bars and restaurants and younger adults gathering just before their own schools opened on the 7th sept. They gave a warning about it on the fb page.

Any parent who has a child in school, especially primary, knows how quickly infections spread. At ours one winter half the school and staff were off sick with norovirus. But the school stayed open for whoever was well enough (thus spreading it around to the rest ). There was also outbreaks of molluscum, threadworms, headlice, chickenpox. The usual stuff. Kids get anything and everything and spread it around.

If the government thought that covid wouldn't spread fast in schools then they are even more stupid and reckless than I thought.

@ivykaty44

eventually though the plan was to do heard immunity and surely this is part of Cummings plan. Let school return in September and get school age pupils to be infected through the early autumn - then when winter arrives its just aged people again at risk?

I could be giving the government to much credit here...?

If that was the strategy, it is not working in my area.

But I actually agree that this needs to happen. Who knows when a vaccine will appear if at all? We are going to have to learn to live with this virus long term and without vaccines that means we will be wanting to catch it as children.

The age group 2-11 has a clear increase in the number of positive cases, yet some people still think chucking 30 of them together in a room won’t cause any problems. For each child in this age group who show symptoms, and have parents sensible enough to get them tested (and can access a test!), how many are asymptomtic or have parents who won’t/can’t get them tested?

I also think though that because schools have gone back and because people are now expected to be back at work that people have made decisions, often unconsciously, to be more out and about. If they're mixing at work and school with people, then they often feel then that they may as well just mix with those people outside of school and work as well.

Here is the link to the 18 Sept report showing results by age. This is a good few weeks after schools return:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919092/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL.pdf

@walksen the reason was that a lot of the class got a cold the week they went back. So when they all got sent home because of the positive case most were taken for tests as they had potential symptoms. The child that tested positive had only had mild cold symptoms. No one else has tested positive.

@TheWindOnTheMoon

Any parent who has a child in school, especially primary, knows how quickly infections spread. At ours one winter half the school and staff were off sick with norovirus. But the school stayed open for whoever was well enough (thus spreading it around to the rest ). There was also outbreaks of molluscum, threadworms, headlice, chickenpox. The usual stuff. Kids get anything and everything and spread it around.

If the government thought that covid wouldn't spread fast in schools then they are even more stupid and reckless than I thought.

Despite all the evidence worldwide that primary aged children do not seem to spread the virus as much as older children / adults.

But yeah, it’s stupid and reckless to follow the science........

We already saw in 2016 and then in 2019 that this country new better than the experts.

No.

1. Because there has not been sufficient gap between the schools going back (apart maybe in Scotland) and the rise in cases. I think you would expect a lag of 4-6 weeks.
2. If you look at the age of cases if schools were the problem you would expect the initial wave to be in the under 18's and last figures I saw it was people in their twenties who had the highest current rates.

@timeforanotherusername

There's more ill children than healthy children at our school. Probably a cold. But no reason why it couldn't be Covid. Teachers are testing positive (reported in news) more often than children. Teachers must be getting it from somewhere... and children are not often eligible for testing as they typically get mild symptoms or asymptomatic. So it's blamed on teachers socialising outside school. Likely story!! I can't believe people can be so naive or yes, in denial.

@OneInEight The ONS figures for this week show a big increase in children aged 2-11

I know the rise started slowly after eat out to help out. But those people often have children who go to school. I don't believe you'd see a lag of 6-8 weeks... why?? Average incubation is 5 days. So that would only take around 2 weeks to show up in testing stats, from beginning of school start.

@Dorual I agree, the media keeps reporting that more adults in school are confirmed cases than children but it’s definitely misleading because the adults are much more likely to show symptoms and therefore be tested. But now there are significant increases in primary aged children testing positive.