Why are people so many people scared of Covid....

[Derbygerbil]

... when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

However, I think people are justifiably fearful, despite these apparently reassuring statistics, because of what it means when they are unpacked.

Survival rates from ICUs are around 60% (though this is improving with time).... So with a 0.6% IFR gives a 1.5% chance of being ill enough to warrant being admitted to ICU.

If crudely, we split the country into the “higher risk” and “lower risk” 10:90, with the deaths very disproportionately occurring in the higher risk group, that higher risk group has close to 15% chance of being admitted to ICU with Covid, with the lower risk group being a fraction of a percent. Again, this is a crude indicative split - none of us know our odds with any certainty.

The higher risk group is therefore working with similar odds to Russian roulette when it comes to being critically ill or dying. Yes, they will probably be ok - but rolling the “Covid dice” and hoping you don’t throw a ‘1’ Is a scary prospect.

Of course, some old and vulnerable will be philosophical about this risk - I hope I would be - but it’s a different prospect for those who are a lower risk who have loved ones who are higher risk, which is many of us. My parents are in their late 70s. They are active, otherwise healthy, whose active participation in the economy will be significantly curtailed if the virus was allowed to get out of control. They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for. My participation would be in the economy would therefore be seriously constrained too, even though my personal health risk is very low.

So all in all, there is a large proportion of the population who are rightly concerned, and those who have been saying the deluded “it’s over” or the naive “get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable” don’t seem to understand.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not pushing for another lockdown - we should avoid one if we at all can - just that we can’t just dismiss the risks as being so tiny as to be not worth worrying about.

Because I live in Bolton,and our infection rates are the highest in the country and still risingand the hospital admission,s are going up and my Dh has underlying health issues,

Even tiny risks for individuals can lead to significant numbers of fairly young people becoming seriously ill, if enough of that age group become infected. I did see people in their 30s-50s die in itu during the last surge and it was awful. Knowing that they were statistically incredibly unlucky doesn't make it any easier.

I think it is the uncertainty of how it will affect you that is unnerving. I have a friend in his 80s who tested positive but had no symptoms (tested in hospital when he was admitted for something else) and someone in his 40s who was really ill for a couple of months and is still not fully recovered.

Because the government knew people wouldn't comply with lockdown unless they felt "personally at risk" so the media started on the rhetoric of "anyone can get it", "lots of young people have died from it" and using emotive words such as "indiscriminate killer virus". They did a good job of making everyone scared.

Add to that people on Mumsnet claiming that they know umpteen people who have died from it, that their brother works for a morgue and they're overrun with covid cases, that their uncles friend is a consultant and says that covid turns your lungs to jelly. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Misery sells papers and gets people talking. Nobody talks about the millions who have had it with no symptoms. Theyre not they're interviewed. Nobody is writing a newspaper article about the people who were surprised to test positive because they only had the mildest cough. It's not newsworthy because it's so common.

Also it seems that many people are illiterate when it comes to reading and understanding statistics. There are people who believe that 10% of the country have died from covid (there was some survey done, I dont have a link to it now) and people who believed that because they had mild asthma they had a 25% chance of dying. It has really highlighted to me how schools need to teach statistics, science and critical thinking skills more effectively.

@eufycurious

I think it is the uncertainty of how it will affect you that is unnerving. I have a friend in his 80s who tested positive but had no symptoms (tested in hospital when he was admitted for something else) and someone in his 40s who was really ill for a couple of months and is still not fully recovered.

That is true and not knowing what could happen is stressful. However, that is the case for many other things too. You never know whether or when you could catch or develop a disease or condition which might affect you horribly. Unfortunately it's just how life is.

Because the media have been scaremongering for 6 months, which has led people to believe it is a virus akin to the plague which can kill anyone indiscriminately.

Ye Gods, this again?

Im not worried. I'm on the vulnerable shielding list etc but I chose not to. (and I'm not up for getting flamed for that. It is optional and I chose not to. I've gone back to work as a teacher ).
However, the media , the government, etc etc have whipped this up into a frenzy of fear and panic. People are scared.
People who are vulnerable are scared I think quite rightly so (just because I'm not doesn't mean I don't think others shouldn't be or are silly to be).
People don't want to lose their elderly relatives to anything. No one wants an elderly relative to die and thinks oh well it's ok they're old. Yes ok it's not as tragic as a baby dying but I mean no one wants it

I'm scared - not of the virus at all but if the huge amount of disadvantaged, vulnerable children who cannot be kept safe and, as they always have done have slipped under the radar.
I'm scared of ALL children losing education. I've asked tons of children what they did during lockdown and pretty much all of them have said they just played xbox or the like. Mumsnet isn't reality. Children don't sit home and nicely home school. months and coming up years of education has been missed to nothing but gaming .

Most people haven't lived in a pandemic and, there hadn't been a pandemic before where there has been such heavy social media presence in life. So of course there is so much opportunity for scare stories.

Maybe you're not scared. I'm not scared health wise either. I've also lost one of my children, not to covid, so my perception of risk and loss is heavily skewed

But...at this point ..6 months in...I'm not sure why you can't work out why people may be afraid.

I'm glad you're not...I'm glad I'm not...I've had enough fear and loss in my life...but I think we need a little kindness and understanding that some people are afraid and there are a million reasons why. Posts asking why people are scared I feel at this point (and have always ) belittled people's fears and that's not good.

Yes the figures you give are reassuring but people have anxiety, people have their own risk, people can just be scared....so numbers don't always help

It's not just affecting those who end up dead or in ICU though is it?

Even a "mild" case can wipe people out for weeks. Some people months later still aren't back to normal, can't exercise like before, get fatigued climbing stairs etc.

If I got it, I'd probably not die or be hospitalised. But I'm a terrible ill person, I live alone and have had flu so bad that i struggled getting out of bed to make food/use the bathroom etc so it can happen. If I can avoid catching it I will, no different to avoiding the dodgy takeaway with a crap food safety rating so I don't get food poisoning.

It's pretty short sighted to make the leap from "death rate is tiny" to "even if I caught it I'd be absolutely fine". There's a huge grey area in between and single parents/self employed/people who live alone should weigh this stuff up too.

Nobody talks about the millions who have had it with no symptoms. Theyre not they're interviewed. Nobody is writing a newspaper article about the people who were surprised to test positive because they only had the mildest cough.

That's not true, actually. I've read and seen many such stories.

Furthermore people are scared of lost livelihoods, poverty, not being able to get food, of working in unsafe environments with not enough ppe I mean come on the list goes on. If you're not scared enjoy that, I do on the whole still enjoy my life. I love going to work.... But ... If you're wondering why others are scared , maybe have a think of anything you've read and heard over the last few months ...I think it's fairly obvious for many reasons why people are

@Sparklfairy

There is no evidence that COVID patients suffer any more frequent or severe long-term symptoms than any other virus.

It is something that happens with every virus.

I know one person who's had it (in her 50s j believe), she was off work for 2 weeks and now she's fine.

I think it's down to personality type? (Being scared). Some people are just scared of everything, and this gives them a reason to indulge that part of themselves.

[quote Ecosse]@Sparklfairy

There is no evidence that COVID patients suffer any more frequent or severe long-term symptoms than any other virus.

It is something that happens with every virus.[/quote]
I didn't say there was. As I said, I've had flu that's knocked me for six for weeks. I'm just saying that if I can avoid catching it, I will. I wouldn't want to go through anything like that again and I'm such a wimp I moan even when I get a cold

People talk about risk assessments but as pp said there are multiple hazards for covid

Being hospitalised
Death obviously
Being affected over a number of weeks or months.
Reports of heart or lung damage which may or may not be long term.
Passing on infections to others in your household and extended family etc and any of the above affecting them.
Passing on infections to colleagues or people in your social circle etc and any of the above affecting them

The probabilities of most of these are unknown so you can't really properly risk assess them so people are being naturally cautious.

The media pushed it so much, with stories of healthy 35 year olds who had died, making it sound as though everyone who got it ended up on intensive care on a ventilator, stories of hospitals in Italy having to decide who got a ventilator etc, and how many ventilators this country had. However, the reality is that for the vast majority it is only a minor illness, but I have spoken to people who are absolutely terrified of catching it, and still aren’t leaving the house.

However, the reality is that for the vast majority it is only a minor illness

Part of the problem is the interpretation of the word 'minor'. My understanding is that 'a minor case of Covid' can/could (not in all cases) be the equivalent of a pretty nasty case of flu. But because of how serious Covid can get, it's classed as minor in the scale of things.

It doesn't necessarily mean minor in the sense of you have a cough for a few days and otherwise function normally.

It would be an inconvenience to say the least if I caught it, so yes, I'm minimising going out and mixing with people. My own situation means that I would really kick myself for getting it. Everyone has different circumstances and I don't judge anyone if they choose not to do the same.

No worries about me bit worried about my mum and older relatives ! My mum lives in Ireland and I’m in the U.K. - she’s high risk! I won’t dare go to visit her yet in case I make her sick!

That’s why it’s scary - because of older or higher risk people you care about who you don’t want to die ??

A 42 year old friend of mine also ended up in intensive care Which was a shock as he’s a healthy fit guy who was definitely not the type you’d think would get serious ill.

I’m also pregnant so definitely do not need to get this virus right now!

A small percentage of Covid patients end up in ITU, it is a small percentage but a small percentage of many infected means a larger number of patients than planned for in ITU.

Which equates to less capacity for what ITU usually caters for.

It can take one consultant hours to get the medicine mix (excuse the technical language!) right for just one patient in ITU. And full time nursing attention. It is staff heavy (thank you all NHS by the way).

Medics don't want to see patients in need on trolleys when they just can't help. They don't want to ration care. We should help them not have to make these choices.

So it's a snowball effect of everything.

It's not quite as simple as "....people scared if Covid".

I’m far more afraid of the social effects, the lockdown, the job losses, the recession, being prevented from seeing my friends and family for months (years? It’s already been 6 months after all) on end than I am of the actual virus.

Because of the two people i know that had it one still has problems 4 months on and the other was a gym bunny 37 No underlying health problems that left a child behind

Because I’m clinically vulnerable, I’ve had pneumonia from the common cold twice and I’d be unlikely to survive ventilation. I’m also BAME as is one of my parents who is the highest possible risk factor overall and most likely would not survive.

Because I live in one of the worst affected parts of the country.

I’m the only adult in my family who isn’t a doctor, nurse or care worker and I know exactly what is going on. I know 2 young healthy nurses and one youngish healthy care worker who all died of Covid after contracting it at work. Plus obviously more elderly people. My sibling, who lives abroad, got it at the end of January and still hasn’t recovered fully, having difficulty with breathing still and a cough that hasn’t fully gone away as well as low energy levels that is making it hard for them to work and parent (as a single parent).

I’m not bothering anyone by continuing to Shield and it’s up to me to make a personal risk assessment, no one else. I am always very careful at this time of year anyway due to previous severe winter illness and I always take special precautions when travelling etc.

@frozendaisy

Which is exactly why the people who are at risk of ending up in ICU should be protected and shielded.

@Lampshadesfor

Nobody talks about the millions who have had it with no symptoms. Theyre not they're interviewed. Nobody is writing a newspaper article about the people who were surprised to test positive because they only had the mildest cough.

That's not true, actually. I've read and seen many such stories.

Oh OK, I stand correct sorry. I havent seen any stories like this.

I think it's down to personality type? (Being scared). Some people are just scared of everything, and this gives them a reason to indulge that part of themselves.

I think it's down to personality type? (Being a twat). Some people are just twats about everything, and this gives them a reason to indulge that part of themselves.