Why are people so many people scared of Covid....

[Derbygerbil]

... when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

However, I think people are justifiably fearful, despite these apparently reassuring statistics, because of what it means when they are unpacked.

Survival rates from ICUs are around 60% (though this is improving with time).... So with a 0.6% IFR gives a 1.5% chance of being ill enough to warrant being admitted to ICU.

If crudely, we split the country into the “higher risk” and “lower risk” 10:90, with the deaths very disproportionately occurring in the higher risk group, that higher risk group has close to 15% chance of being admitted to ICU with Covid, with the lower risk group being a fraction of a percent. Again, this is a crude indicative split - none of us know our odds with any certainty.

The higher risk group is therefore working with similar odds to Russian roulette when it comes to being critically ill or dying. Yes, they will probably be ok - but rolling the “Covid dice” and hoping you don’t throw a ‘1’ Is a scary prospect.

Of course, some old and vulnerable will be philosophical about this risk - I hope I would be - but it’s a different prospect for those who are a lower risk who have loved ones who are higher risk, which is many of us. My parents are in their late 70s. They are active, otherwise healthy, whose active participation in the economy will be significantly curtailed if the virus was allowed to get out of control. They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for. My participation would be in the economy would therefore be seriously constrained too, even though my personal health risk is very low.

So all in all, there is a large proportion of the population who are rightly concerned, and those who have been saying the deluded “it’s over” or the naive “get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable” don’t seem to understand.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not pushing for another lockdown - we should avoid one if we at all can - just that we can’t just dismiss the risks as being so tiny as to be not worth worrying about.

Maybe because the government spent 3 months telling the general public to stay indoors in order to save lives.

It’s not just about deaths, I have a previously healthy friend in her early 30s who’s been ill for months. I am so sick of these stupid threads

I am not scared of it but I am also not stupid enough to go rubbing my face in it -same as I wouldn't for anything else, if there are things I can do to avoid it I bloody well will

Because how the virus affects you is a complete lottery?

That’s just not true I’m afraid- all the figures show that the vast majority of deaths and hospitalisations occur in certain groups- those with certain underlying health conditions.

There will unfortunately be a very small number of others who will suffer serious illness, but this also happens with other viruses like flu.

This virus is not indiscriminate or a lottery at all.

when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

Because people have elderly relative,.

Because most vital services wouldnt be able to run. Yes i understand health care has been massively restricted since covid, however the progress of opening things back up would be reversed. Im concerned my team wont be able to run safely

I run a vital nhs service, other services around me have had massive staffing issues. How do you staff a ward when the staff are sick? Even if its just cold/flu like symptoms, we now beginning to have to redeploy staff to fill sickness vacancies. Staff obviously have to isolate if family members test positive thus increasing the likely hood of short staffing even more if the infection rate is up. I work in a community team so we also have multiple vulnerable members of staff that are essential to the running of the service but have to be protected.

If the virus was to run its course, we would have to expect huge numbers of sickness (im not talking ICU sick, i mean staff off for a few days or so as happens with nasty bouts of flu), services like care homes, shops, food production, hospitals etc would be badly affected.

My body is a temple and I want it to stay perfect 😶

People are scared because it has killed so many people. The government put people on national lockdown to stop the spread and lost so much money. It is a Tory government that furlonged people and lockdown the nation. If it was a labour government that did that, then you would have had less people thinking it is a serious infection.

Because I'm extremely vulnerable and my consultant has told me to avoid going out. I listen to him because my condition is rare in adults and so they don't really know how covid affects it. They do know I can't fight infection
Plus if it's rare or extremely unlikely, I'm guaranteed to get whatever it is from past experience

Oh and me being worried doesn't affect anyone else, I just choose to stay in. So no real issue

it is particularly worrying because you can be symptom free and be spreading to all and sundry, if you are not careful

Because worldwide 9300000 people have died from jan till now ( 8 months ). This was even though there were national lockdowns. no vaccine in sight. No herd immunity. Long covid a reality

952000...not over 9 million have died... it’s a lot but thankfully not as catastrophic as that Howslifenow - you must have slipped a digit?

Sorry a mistake. Yes it's 952k.

You rely on your late 70s parents for childcare?!!

I know six people in their 30s who have had 'mild' Covid -- not hospitalised or treated for it.

Three have recovered completely but told me that if I had 'mild' Covid like they did, I would be unable to care for my children at the time.

One took about 10 weeks to recover and had some recurring bad spells but has now been fine for a couple of months.

But of the remaining two, one is still unable to work after having it in April and the other is seriously affected and no longer able to manage anything outside her part-time work (no socialising, none of her previous hobbies etc) as she is too exhausted -- five months on.

It's pretty concerning. These are real people and the results of this 'mild Covid' have been debilitating and aren't even recorded or acknowledged anywhere. You can bet your bottom dollar I'm concerned!

Two were in contact with a confirmed positive case, two tested positive for antibodies, and the remaining two had tested positive via work tests. So, definitely Covid.

And all six reported wildly different symptoms! Ranging from breathlessness, extreme fatigue, chest pains, gastro-intestinal disturbances, loss of smell and taste, and one cough.

@SpearmintPeppermint

It’s not just about deaths, I have a previously healthy friend in her early 30s who’s been ill for months. I am so sick of these stupid threads

This. People are rightly scared of the economic damage from uncontained spread, and of Long Covid (potential permanent heart, lung, or brain damage).

I honestly don’t know how anyone of working age can be more scared of this virus than the serious economic fallout from shutting down the country for months on end.

serious economic fallout from shutting down the country for months on end.

You might recall that many companies and events shut down voluntarily prior to being made to by the government. The only way to keep the economy going is to control the infection rate albeit many people seem personally determined to do the opposite.

@KnobChops

I honestly don’t know how anyone of working age can be more scared of this virus than the serious economic fallout from shutting down the country for months on end.

Perhaps they're scared of the serious economic consequence of not containing Covid.

The Bank of England know about the economy. They've issued a warning about the risks of increasing Covid cases.

Long covid doesn’t matter exist @SheepandCow.

It's because of the unknown longterm effects. Friend of mine had it and still not right. The exhaustion it has left her with has surprised us all and in someone relatively fit and who looks after herself. The fear is also for others who are vulnerable. Unfortunately it's people being flippant and selfish about this virus, which isn't just like any other virus, that has caused spikes and now potential second lockdown. My friend is dreading a second dose.

"Long covid doesn’t matter exist ".

Motherofdragonite posted personal experiences and there's an entire thread on Mumsnet about it. Are you gaslighting?

What with "exponential growth is impossible' and the Economy "shutting down completely" you don't half post some rubbish.