Why are people so many people scared of Covid....

[Derbygerbil]

... when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

However, I think people are justifiably fearful, despite these apparently reassuring statistics, because of what it means when they are unpacked.

Survival rates from ICUs are around 60% (though this is improving with time).... So with a 0.6% IFR gives a 1.5% chance of being ill enough to warrant being admitted to ICU.

If crudely, we split the country into the “higher risk” and “lower risk” 10:90, with the deaths very disproportionately occurring in the higher risk group, that higher risk group has close to 15% chance of being admitted to ICU with Covid, with the lower risk group being a fraction of a percent. Again, this is a crude indicative split - none of us know our odds with any certainty.

The higher risk group is therefore working with similar odds to Russian roulette when it comes to being critically ill or dying. Yes, they will probably be ok - but rolling the “Covid dice” and hoping you don’t throw a ‘1’ Is a scary prospect.

Of course, some old and vulnerable will be philosophical about this risk - I hope I would be - but it’s a different prospect for those who are a lower risk who have loved ones who are higher risk, which is many of us. My parents are in their late 70s. They are active, otherwise healthy, whose active participation in the economy will be significantly curtailed if the virus was allowed to get out of control. They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for. My participation would be in the economy would therefore be seriously constrained too, even though my personal health risk is very low.

So all in all, there is a large proportion of the population who are rightly concerned, and those who have been saying the deluded “it’s over” or the naive “get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable” don’t seem to understand.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not pushing for another lockdown - we should avoid one if we at all can - just that we can’t just dismiss the risks as being so tiny as to be not worth worrying about.

Previous, in reply to KnobChops

[quote Ecosse]@Sparklfairy

There is no evidence that COVID patients suffer any more frequent or severe long-term symptoms than any other virus.

It is something that happens with every virus.[/quote]
And if you put your mind to it, can you think of a big difference between Covid and most other viruses? I’ve made you a handy list:

Flu = there’s a vaccine.
Chicken pox = there’s a vaccine.
Measles = there’s a vaccine.
Mumps = there’s a vaccine.
Rubella = there’s a vaccine.

Covid = no vaccine. Which is why people need to take extra measures.

You would think it’s not rocket science...

the vast majority of COVID deaths have occurred in people who have underlying health conditions

Underlying health conditions can cover a huge range of medical conditions, many of which the patient may have been able to live with for decades more without Covid. I think it's very concerning that people hear that term and think that those patients would have died very soon anyway. I've mentioned before, DF has hypertension. It's perfectly controlled and he's an otherwise healthy man in his early 70s who probably has a good decade or two left. However, if he died of Covid he would be listed as having an underlying condition.

Because 0.6% of half the population of the UK (conservative estimate of how many people would get it if left unchecked) is a hell of a lot of people dying. Because there is now quite a lot of evidence that significant numbers of people who get covid-19 have symptoms that last for long periods of time.

0.6% of the population of the UK is still 407,788 people.
That's 10 times the current deaths.

Even if you assume only 80% catch it (for herd immunity) that's still over 300 000 deaths.

If hospitals bed fill up, there'll be even more deaths. Covid and non-Covid.
People won't be able to access treatment.

I'm scared of it as I've sat with my incredibly ill fiance whilst he was intubated and fighting to survive once this year (non covid related) and he would be at extremely high risk if he caught covid...and I work in a hospital so have a very real chance of catching it.

@MATINA3 I've reported your post for the shitty spam that it is.

I think the perception of how many are scared is exaggerated by those who

• Are in the public sector having an easy life at home on full pay and, therefore, an interest in this all carrying on as long as possible

• The above, the hysterical and trolls (and maybe even paid actors) making a lot of noise on the internet

• People being British and looking like they are complying - eg doing a bit of mask theatre for their 20 min Tesco run because not a massive downside to that - but then doing their own thing on the quiet

I know plenty who haven't been into the "Fear" for ages. The media and government just like to make out that they are a tiny tiny % - but they are not. We are not. And we will have our day.

Please note that this is a Zombie thread from September when the position with vaccines was very different...

I wouldn't want to risk myself getting it despite low chance . Just like taking contraception to avoid pregnancy? Once you are pregnancy , it's a big project. If I got really sick, who will take care of kids ? So I would minimize the risk if possible.

I’m not scared of covid
Never had been or will be
I’m a slave to my immune system and keep it in tip top condition and it serves me well

Because I have seen 12 people die from covid and the side effects it can have.

Wow @Vivana. What area is that . When you look at the official ons statistics deaths from covid very low in most areas

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsduetocovid19interactivemap/2021-02-25

Because the government and SAGE decided we should be.

There’s even a government document that’s published that shows how they went about achieving a scared society.

@Mathshelpme is right. Now the fear has become normal and restrictions are a way of life.

I wasn't scared of it particularly but now I've seen the affects of long covid, on my teenage dd - I worry way more about catching it.
She had it very mildly back in September

It was in the south west and I was working in a care home then. Sadly covid caused many deaths and I had to leave in the end.

Because no matter how much some deniers wants to down play it, the evidence is there, many people are getting seriously ill or dying all over the world.