Why are people so many people scared of Covid....

[Derbygerbil]

... when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

However, I think people are justifiably fearful, despite these apparently reassuring statistics, because of what it means when they are unpacked.

Survival rates from ICUs are around 60% (though this is improving with time).... So with a 0.6% IFR gives a 1.5% chance of being ill enough to warrant being admitted to ICU.

If crudely, we split the country into the “higher risk” and “lower risk” 10:90, with the deaths very disproportionately occurring in the higher risk group, that higher risk group has close to 15% chance of being admitted to ICU with Covid, with the lower risk group being a fraction of a percent. Again, this is a crude indicative split - none of us know our odds with any certainty.

The higher risk group is therefore working with similar odds to Russian roulette when it comes to being critically ill or dying. Yes, they will probably be ok - but rolling the “Covid dice” and hoping you don’t throw a ‘1’ Is a scary prospect.

Of course, some old and vulnerable will be philosophical about this risk - I hope I would be - but it’s a different prospect for those who are a lower risk who have loved ones who are higher risk, which is many of us. My parents are in their late 70s. They are active, otherwise healthy, whose active participation in the economy will be significantly curtailed if the virus was allowed to get out of control. They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for. My participation would be in the economy would therefore be seriously constrained too, even though my personal health risk is very low.

So all in all, there is a large proportion of the population who are rightly concerned, and those who have been saying the deluded “it’s over” or the naive “get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable” don’t seem to understand.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not pushing for another lockdown - we should avoid one if we at all can - just that we can’t just dismiss the risks as being so tiny as to be not worth worrying about.

The mortality rate doesn’t worry me as much as the long term health impact of the virus, especially on the cardiovascular system.

@Ecosse

Long covid doesn’t matter exist *@SheepandCow*.

You'd better let the doctors and experts know they've got it wrong.

@walksen

There are a small number of COVID patients who suffer after effects. This is a perfectly normal symptom of any virus.

It is not something that is unique to COVID and there is no evidence that the after effects of COVID are any more common or severe than any other virus.

It’s the unpredictable nature of it I think. My aunt who is living with cancer, COPD and multiple health issues was admitted with Covid in April. She is home now and feels back to normal. My previously healthy cousin (in her 20’s) was “mild” and didn’t require any hospital care but five months on is constantly exhausted, breathless, struggles to concentrate and get through the day. Her experience isn’t recorded except for the fact she didn’t require hospital treatment so she is “mild”. She can barely hold down her job and cannot take anymore sick leave.

I worried because I had it and it was fucking awful and I was off work for 4 weeks and knackered for at least another 6. Several of my friends have had it too and out of them:
A mum at school died (aged 45 with health problems)
A very healthy friend of mine aged 39 has severe cardiovascular issues and keeps relapsing.
My DDs BF who is 10 has been ill, with some sort post viral chronic illness since April and can't get back to school.
My school friends wife died aged 50 (no issues but overweight)
DH was ill in June and still isn't back to full health with mini replaces.
It's a weird nasty fucker.

I'm not worried although I probably should be as I'm not in perfect health. I'm more worried for my parents than myself and that's probably true of most of my generation.

There is no evidence that the after effects of COVID are any more common or severe than any other virus
That's not true.
Cardiologists have spoken about seeing an unusually high number of cases of heart damage caused by Covid. In previously fit and healthy young patients. They're concerned.

"There are a small number of COVID patients who suffer after effects. This is a perfectly normal symptom of any virus.

It is not something that is unique to COVID and there is no evidence that the after effects of COVID are any more common or severe than any other virus"

Owing to the fact that you spout rubbish so often I figure this is bullshit too.

There are hospital studies that shows people hospitalised have not recovered for months afterwards including the aforementioned thread on Mumsnet. I've yet to see the flu recovery thread or measles thread.

It may be true that long term complications can occur with other viruses but in over 40 years I've not met anyone who suffered from them or heard of many cases.

The opposite is true of covid which has been around for only 9 months.

This is simply a repeat of other viruses can kill you too and there's nothing special about covid. That's clearly not true either as it has been a 100 years since a virus had a similar impact.

Why are so many people afraid of still birth when that is only 0.5% too?

It's a silly question, really.

I'm not scared, I'm wary. I hope I would not be badly affected (no guarantee) but I certainly have fanily members I would like to see live longer who would be almost certain to dIe from it. I still don't think we would like the results if it were left to rum unchecked through the population.

My friend lost her dad, he was just 60, fit and well.

I don't want to be responsible for spreading the virus to anyone else because the more it spreads, the more people will die. Older people are more vulnerable but they are not expendable.

No matter how low the percentage sounds, the reality is that over 41 thousand people have died in the UK, as a direct result of this virus. When you just look at the death rate, you ignore how contagious it is.
If it was allowed to run throughout the population then sure, most people would be fine, but hundreds of thousands would die - and no, they can't just hide away to protect themselves!

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/evidence-builds-covid-19-can-damage-heart-doctors-are-racing-understand-it

Not everyone is white, middle class and middle aged OP.
Thousands and thousands of people are older, have underlying health conditions or are BAME, they have more reason to worry.

I hate this world we live seem to in where it's a case of "I'm alright Jack" and so no one should think about taking precautions to help the vulnerable.

I think younger people are not scared of it hence ignoring restrictions.

I can see why those who are over 65 with health conditions would be a bit apprehensive.

No matter how low the percentage sounds, the reality is that over 41 thousand people have died in the UK, as a direct result of this virus

That’s not quite true- 41,000 people have died after testing positive for COVID. Over 99% of whom had underlying health conditions.

We simply don’t know how many people have died as a direct result of COVID.

I have no idea. There are much worse illnesses to be terrified of getting.

The heart damage is being seen in under 65s.

And the (warned about by the Bank of England) economic damage of unchecked Covid cases continuing to spread will affect everyone of all ages.

@OpheliasCrayon

Yes the figures you give are reassuring but people have anxiety, people have their own risk, people can just be scared....so numbers don't always help

I clearly didn’t write very clearly if you felt my numbers were reasuring.... My point was to demonstrate that even with a 0.6% IFR and with that far lower still for younger people, the fear or wariness is reasonable and valid!

"That’s not quite true- 41,000 people have died after testing positive for COVID. Over 99% of whom had underlying health conditions."

The government themselves said that the best way to assess deaths was to look at excess mortality which is well in excess of 40,000. I'm not sure that their relatives will be comforted that they could have died "with covid not of it". 57k have covid as a contributory cause of death on their death certificate.

basically if under 50 with no health conditions, you don’t have a lot to worry about. The media and government have scared people.

It seems a lot of people have read the headline of
the thread, taken it at face value, and completely
missed the point I trying to make...Oh well, that serves me right for making it too long!

Over 99% of whom has underlying conditions
Do you have a link to the figures?
If that's correct, it's a huge risk to millions in the UK including many NHS staff. So many people of working age have underlying conditions.
(With Long Covid potentially many more will soon also have an underlying condition).

How many more people do you think will die if we do nothing to halt the spread -meaning hospital beds are full of Covid patients and the NHS short-staffed (because staff are ill)?

@walksen

Excess mortality will include the people who have died from the effects of lockdown, so not really a very effective measure.

The government themselves said that the best way to assess deaths was to look at excess mortality which is well in excess of 40,000. I'm not sure that their relatives will be comforted that they could have died "with covid not of it". 57k have covid as a contributory cause of death on their death certificate.

And 92% of death certificate including Covid were judged to have Covid as the underlying cause of death. There haven’t been 1,000s of car accidents of people who had tested positive for Covid a few weeks earlier as some on the DM comments pages would seemingly have us believe.

@ecosse

Nevertheless it is the government's preferred measure.

And there are still those 57k death certificates.