Why are people so many people scared of Covid....

[Derbygerbil]

... when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

However, I think people are justifiably fearful, despite these apparently reassuring statistics, because of what it means when they are unpacked.

Survival rates from ICUs are around 60% (though this is improving with time).... So with a 0.6% IFR gives a 1.5% chance of being ill enough to warrant being admitted to ICU.

If crudely, we split the country into the “higher risk” and “lower risk” 10:90, with the deaths very disproportionately occurring in the higher risk group, that higher risk group has close to 15% chance of being admitted to ICU with Covid, with the lower risk group being a fraction of a percent. Again, this is a crude indicative split - none of us know our odds with any certainty.

The higher risk group is therefore working with similar odds to Russian roulette when it comes to being critically ill or dying. Yes, they will probably be ok - but rolling the “Covid dice” and hoping you don’t throw a ‘1’ Is a scary prospect.

Of course, some old and vulnerable will be philosophical about this risk - I hope I would be - but it’s a different prospect for those who are a lower risk who have loved ones who are higher risk, which is many of us. My parents are in their late 70s. They are active, otherwise healthy, whose active participation in the economy will be significantly curtailed if the virus was allowed to get out of control. They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for. My participation would be in the economy would therefore be seriously constrained too, even though my personal health risk is very low.

So all in all, there is a large proportion of the population who are rightly concerned, and those who have been saying the deluded “it’s over” or the naive “get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable” don’t seem to understand.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not pushing for another lockdown - we should avoid one if we at all can - just that we can’t just dismiss the risks as being so tiny as to be not worth worrying about.

Excess mortality will include the people who have died from the effects of lockdown, so not really a very effective measure.

Much more likely to be non-Covid deaths due to hospital reprioritisation rather than lockdown measures, but “lockdown” gets the blame
for everything!

@Derbygerbil

Clearly there haven’t been thousands of people hit by busses who have subsequently tested positive for COVID.

However, the vast majority of COVID deaths have occurred in people who have underlying health conditions, particularly dementia.

This doesn’t mean that no one else is at risk, but it does show us who is actually in significant danger and allow us to protect these individuals.

@NIo1

basically if under 50 with no health conditions, you don’t have a lot to worry about. The media and government have scared people.

You'd better speak to the Bank of England to tell them they're wrong about the economic dangers of unchecked Covid.

Perhaps also have a word with the concerned cardiologists. No matter their scans showing heart damage in under 50s. You can let them know it's nothing to worry about.

Most people know and care about friends and family over 50. It's quite sad if someone exists in such a tiny world with no loved ones over 50 (presumably bad relationships or lots of premature bereavement).

@Ecosse if the case is that a significant number of people have died as a result if lockdown not covid in these figures, can this be supported by data? Genuine question. Are there figures that show deaths from suicide or cancer for example increased in the same period?

Because it is the most deadly and contagious virus of our lifetimes. Even if the risk of death is relatively small, there are no certainties if you do get it. It is showing to have lasting health impacts in some young, otherwise healthy people too. The whole world isn't wrong in its concern

Because millions of people have pre-exisiting conditions that would make it worse, or children with disabilities or they are obese, or they have grandparents/great grandparents they're worried about.

How long are people prepared to go on with this m? What if they never find a cure or vaccine? Do we go on like this forever? Is survival all that matters?

Going sort of off topic. Why do ostriches stick their heads in the sand? I must Google it.

@SheepandCow

Going sort of off topic. Why do ostriches stick their heads in the sand? I must Google it.

It seems they don't. Well that's one interesting fact I've learned as a result of this thread. I'm off to learn more about ostriches.

I am scared of it due to the lack of known treatment and that it could kill me, and you know, young healthy people possibly with their lives ruined by unknown long covid.

Nobody talks about people with cancer, heart problems and other life threatening diseases whose treatment has been severely compromised. Not yo mention doctors surgeries closed so delay in reporting symptoms of what might be a life threatening diseases. Not yo mention people's mental health.

"Nobody talks about people with cancer, heart problems and other life threatening diseases whose treatment has been severely compromised"

This point is brought up all the time by lots of people with different agendas.

Mental health is the same

Just popping in again before I head off for ostrich reading.
People have absolutely been talking about non Covid medical needs. It's one very big reason why it's so important to contain Covid. So that hospitals are able to treat non Covid patients (whether mental and physical health). They obviously can't do that if the beds are full of Covid patients and they're short-staffed (because staff are ill).

I agree the point is brought up but nobody is listening. It's terrifying.

Except beds have never been ‘full of COVID patients’ at any point @SheepandCow. In fact, we’ve had tens of thousands of beds in the Nightingale units lying empty for 6 months.

That’s before we even get to the non-COVID wards that have been closed completely for months, with staff in some cases having time to film Tiktok videos and watch Netflix.

Listening to you and agreeing with you are not the same thing.

The NHS has always prioritised healthcare and available treatments based on costs, benefits etc.

The elected government changed these priorities in light of the covid epidemic. People may disagree with it but it's now their decision.

My parents are in their late 70s. [....] They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for

Err ... OK ...

Actually, dying of it isn't the scary thing. Living with it is.

Nobody talks about people with cancer, heart problems and other life threatening diseases whose treatment has been severely compromised. Not yo mention doctors surgeries closed so delay in reporting symptoms of what might be a life threatening diseases. Not yo mention people's mental health.

It’s literally raised all the time of MN Covid threads... again and again.

What you seem to be inferring is that you continue to be disappointed that the “there are other bad diseases too” argument hasn’t led enough people to conclude “well in that case we should just treat Covid like the flu”.

As someone whose daughter has a heart condition, I’m all too well aware of other conditions. That’s precisely why I don’t want people to think “screw this, I’ve had enough. Let’s end social distancing and masks, and get back to normal”!

How will sky-rocketing cases improve cancer and other non-Covid treatment, mental health and the economy?!

@Time40

And what’s that meant to mean?!

KnobChops

I honestly don’t know how anyone of working age can be more scared of this virus than the serious economic fallout from shutting down the country for months on end.”

I am scared.
My working aged husband is responsible for managing the investments that affect the livelihoods and dictate the pensions’ performance of tens of thousands of people, which he does extremely effectively.

He has a rare genetic condition that suppresses his immunity and means he will in all probability die if he contracts Covid. It would be almost impossible to replace his expertise on the public sector salary he is prepared to work for. Should he die from this, the negative consequences would hit not just me and our children but all of those public sector workers.

Work it out.

@LouiseNW

KnobChops

I honestly don’t know how anyone of working age can be more scared of this virus than the serious economic fallout from shutting down the country for months on end.”

I am scared.
My working aged husband is responsible for managing the investments that affect the livelihoods and dictate the pensions’ performance of tens of thousands of people, which he does extremely effectively.

He has a rare genetic condition that suppresses his immunity and means he will in all probability die if he contracts Covid. It would be almost impossible to replace his expertise on the public sector salary he is prepared to work for. Should he die from this, the negative consequences would hit not just me and our children but all of those public sector workers.

Work it out.

As awful as that risk is for your husband I’m sure that if he’s that senior he can isolate himself and work from home. The greater good for the young (who mostly are not in the privileged positions of being able to wfh or even find a job) is not by destroying their immediate future prospects and driving them into poverty.

"NIo1

basically if under 50 with no health conditions, you don’t have a lot to worry about."

You really cannot say this so flippantly. I am well under 50, white, female and a super fitness freak before I caught Covid. I am six months on from "mild" Covid and nowhere near who I used to be. Still suffer terrible chest pain and shortness of breath. I have researched alot and there are thousands of fit, healthy, young people like me.

However, the vast majority of COVID deaths have occurred in people who have underlying health conditions, particularly dementia.

That’s true. I am not personally scared regarding my own health. However, it’s also the case that if the deaths with Covid on the death certificate, the vast majority (92% according to ONS) are identified as having Covid as the primary cause of death, even if existing conditions were a contributory factor in most.

Yes, he has been working from home since February. Unfortunately, it’s a little more tricky to keep our 17 year old student son at home, too, without the risk of destroying his immediate future.

You said you could not understand why anyone of working age is more scared of Covid. I have explained to you why I am, no more no less.