Why are people so many people scared of Covid....

[Derbygerbil]

... when it’s infection fatality is just 0.6% (CDC estimate based on wide range of studies) and even this rate is so heavily skewed to the elderly?

However, I think people are justifiably fearful, despite these apparently reassuring statistics, because of what it means when they are unpacked.

Survival rates from ICUs are around 60% (though this is improving with time).... So with a 0.6% IFR gives a 1.5% chance of being ill enough to warrant being admitted to ICU.

If crudely, we split the country into the “higher risk” and “lower risk” 10:90, with the deaths very disproportionately occurring in the higher risk group, that higher risk group has close to 15% chance of being admitted to ICU with Covid, with the lower risk group being a fraction of a percent. Again, this is a crude indicative split - none of us know our odds with any certainty.

The higher risk group is therefore working with similar odds to Russian roulette when it comes to being critically ill or dying. Yes, they will probably be ok - but rolling the “Covid dice” and hoping you don’t throw a ‘1’ Is a scary prospect.

Of course, some old and vulnerable will be philosophical about this risk - I hope I would be - but it’s a different prospect for those who are a lower risk who have loved ones who are higher risk, which is many of us. My parents are in their late 70s. They are active, otherwise healthy, whose active participation in the economy will be significantly curtailed if the virus was allowed to get out of control. They would “probably” be ok, but I would be cold and heartless to dismissive of that risk, and am concerned about the childcare we currently rely on them for. My participation would be in the economy would therefore be seriously constrained too, even though my personal health risk is very low.

So all in all, there is a large proportion of the population who are rightly concerned, and those who have been saying the deluded “it’s over” or the naive “get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable” don’t seem to understand.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not pushing for another lockdown - we should avoid one if we at all can - just that we can’t just dismiss the risks as being so tiny as to be not worth worrying about.

I am fearful because I know numerous people who have been very ill with it and some who months after having it are barely able to walk and are no where near getting back to any kind of normal with no idea whether they ever will. I know an ex colleague who ended up in hospital for nine days, a Consultant who ended up ventilated. I also have a dh who is extremely high risk due to the treatment he has for severe asthma.

I’m not super healthy so don’t want to take chances, the same about my DH. DD has a serious health issue a few years ago which as we were told was a result of viral infection and it’s just a mild cold. She recovered thankfully but I don’t want it to come back.
By the way I was not a risky type before Covid either: lots of cleaning with Dettol, washing hands and flu jab every year.

Because even if I’d survive it, it’d probably further reduce my minimal lung function. I’m already on oxygen 24:7 and I am going to be assessed for a lung transplant. No, it might not kill me but it’d massively affect my quality of life. I’m 32 and a single mother.

Well still recovering since having it at the beginning of April, 5 months later so....

Because I’m my son’s only parent, he’s already lost his father.

[quote Ecosse]@frozendaisy

Which is exactly why the people who are at risk of ending up in ICU should be protected and shielded.[/quote]
But some of those will be workers, carers, parents, etc. You can't just lock them behind closed doors. Who will do their work, their caring responsibilities, where will their kids go to be looked after? You're not just talking about 80 year olds in care homes. There are ECV people in their teens, some middle aged are nurses/doctors, etc. If you want to lock them away, then you need to properly provide alternatives for the work/care they provide and finance them being off work.

In reality, it's a hell of a lot easier for people to wash their hands, social distance, wear masks, etc so the vulnerable can carry on close to normal!

In rl I know one direct healthy person, 40s runner who got it and couldn't breath. Further 2 people removed also fit and healthy had an awful time with it.

I no longer worry and believe that we must learn to live with it as it has now entered our typical annual virus calendar. The virus has mutated and its mission isn't to kill its host! According to some Mumsnet users though, we must hide away for ever and use a firing squad for anyone that dares to meet up in a group of 7. I've been on 2 holidays since June and I'm carrying on as normal. I take precautions with hand gels and wearing mask but I'm not letting a virus with a high percentage of survival rate to dictate my way of living which ultimately impacts my MH. I wonder how some Mumsnetters that are happy about a second lockdown going to feel once they start losing their jobs as furlough ends and when they cannot pay for food and a roof over their heads? Or maybe they won't feel anything as they have no financial worries and the highlight of their lives right now is to be Covid Marshall's.

Because I hate the idea of unwittingly passing it on to a vulnerable person mainly.
Plus between my husband and I we know of multiple cases, ranging from "mild", which actually means ill for weeks, and some deaths. We are not terrified, but we aren't blasé either.

I think i have come to realise people need something to worry about whether it is parenting related, climate change, terrorism, covid there is always something people need to worry about (no not all)

My sister is a Critical Care nurse who worked on a Covid unit and she told me that the vast majority of the patients she looked after where in the early/mid fifties and the youngest was 17. About 75% of those poor people died. Also, she attended a recent meeting preparing for a second wave and they still don't have enough of the right sort of ventilator nor is there different treatment on offer - they were always treating Covid with steriods. On top of that a lot of the colleagues she worked with before have left to work in other areas of the NHS because they are not prepared to go through with it all over again. What really pisses me off is all these Radio presenters who speak with such authority and tell people they have nothing to worry about and that it's just a flu type thing. It's scary that people actually listen to them.

@VickySunshine

There are a very small number of young people who will suffer serious adverse reactions from covid. This also happens with flu.

This does not change the fact that the vast vast majority will not.

Because people are shit at evaluating risk and have been utterly terrified by every single news bulletin since about February.

Because it is infectious and you might pass it to someone vulnerable.
i am also clinically vulnerable.
i have family i really worry about

we are scared.

Why are people so many people scared of Covid
Because people have vulnerable or elderly people in their families who they don't want to inadvertently kill?

Because you could be one of the random people who is badly affected even with no pre-existing conditions. My perfectly healthy mid-40s friend has been unable to get back to her normal life, including work, since she contracted Covid in April. She has a partially collapsed lung and newly diagnosed cardiac issues. There is increasing evidence of long-lasting effects that can seemingly affect you at random.

I'm also worried for my 72 year old Dad who has hypertension, completely controlled by medication so he could expect to live for another 10-20 years, but would be at much greater chance of dying if he contracted Covid.

Because i don’t want to be ill, I don’t want to feel breathless as I have a slight medical issue anyway it could affect, because I don’t want to suffer longer term issues if it’s long Covid, because I don’t want to see very vulnerable family members die

Would you fly if 1 in 500 planes crashed?

@SockYarn

Because people are shit at evaluating risk and have been utterly terrified by every single news bulletin since about February.

A lot of people are not terrified they’ll die but that they’ll unwittingly pass it on to elderly loved ones. I’m extremely clinically vulnerable and I’ve been specifically told my combination of conditions are very high risk but even then, statistically I am likely to survive and fully recover. I still worry about my grandparent who is nearly 90.

Because how the virus affects you is a complete lottery?

My son's PIL tested positive and had few symptoms, they are middle 60's and MIL has reduced lung capacity due to an illness in her early life.

Yet, a friend's daughter who is 30 and who runs marathons was hospitalised with it in March and is still a shadow of her former self.

A friend who was a fit and healthy paramedic died from it in June.

We have relaxed our guard a little as the figures dropped but from watching the news yesterday and hearing the stories of the real flesh and blood people behind the 41000 deaths and how their families have been affected it made us think we need to up our game again.

I just try not to think too much about it as obviously now, it is a simple economy/schooling v lives scenario and very much a balancing act.

It’s probably the whole risk of death and serious illness thing.

Because if hospitals become filled with COVID patients then there will be less/no provision for other illnesses and accidents.

I don’t think many people are scared of coronavirus on an individual or personal level, unless they have underlying conditions etc

It’s the damage it can cause to society, the economy and the health care system.

It’s ok saying it’s only has a low death rate, but that’s a very simple way of viewing it.

It also has a very high transmission rate. So for example:

X illness has a low transmission rate and a 50% mortality rate. At any one time 10 people are infected with the illness, so we can expect 5 deaths.

Y illness has a very high transmission rate and a 1% mortality rate, 100 people are now infected, we can expect 1 death and reasonably many more Hospital admission dues to complications.

So whilst illness Y is less deadly, it has more of an impact.

@Sparklfairy

However, the reality is that for the vast majority it is only a minor illness

Part of the problem is the interpretation of the word 'minor'. My understanding is that 'a minor case of Covid' can/could (not in all cases) be the equivalent of a pretty nasty case of flu. But because of how serious Covid can get, it's classed as minor in the scale of things.

It doesn't necessarily mean minor in the sense of you have a cough for a few days and otherwise function normally.

It would be an inconvenience to say the least if I caught it, so yes, I'm minimising going out and mixing with people. My own situation means that I would really kick myself for getting it. Everyone has different circumstances and I don't judge anyone if they choose not to do the same.

Yet millions have had it with very few / no symptoms at all so actually, minor can sometimes mean minor.

@SockYarn

Because people are shit at evaluating risk and have been utterly terrified by every single news bulletin since about February.

100% this. Even the BBC trot out the death toll and new cases the end of every bulletin, with no context or discussion, like a grim version of the football results.