Possible national lockdown over October half-term

[GetRid]

FT reports that Sage are looking at a 2 week national lockdown to coincide with October half-term.

article here

@GoldenOmber

What's the point of scheduling it for October? Surely if the situation is bad enough now to be proposing national lockdowns then we should have a short one now rather than a months-long one later?

Yes this.

We've dragged our feet all the way through, Johnson is incapable of making decisions!

I think reinfection has happened about 6 times in the whole world?

confirmed reinfection numbers are low, but there is now evidence reinfection happens, which has implications for disease management, as it means those who have already had it don't block transmission, unlike with e.g. chicken pox, so vulnerable people remain at high risk of infection, and impacts.

@sorryforswearing

Londonmummy66 Perhaps it would be better to just cancel half term altogether - not as if the children haven't missed enough school already...

Yes that’s a good idea. Never mind that school staff are entitled to their holidays just like everybody else. They’ll probably all be off sick by then anyway.

Kids still need a break though. Imagine cancelling adult leave - they'd be a riot!

I think reinfection has happened about 6 times in the whole world?

Yes, and it's a concern that it is occurring already. It suggests that the period of immunity following infection can be as little as 6 months. This is about the time we would start to see confirmed second cases. It's a number to watch, especially as quite a lot is riding on how long immunity (whether from disease or vaccine) will last

Repeatswan You can get chick pox more than once.

@Treesofwood

Repeatswan You can get chick pox more than once.

It is much rarer.

Sorry, should say it is rare, not rarer, as we don't know yet about covid.

Chicken pox is usually rightly assumed not to be circulating in e.g. sixth form age group.

My childminder lives in a locked down county in Wales and I have been there and back multiple times in the past two weeks, and noone is "policing" it or noticing. I could easily be heading to a friend's house for a coffee. It's all a bit pointless to be honest.

Rumours that BJ could announce two week lockdown on Tuesday stating almost immediately. I really hope not. Local measures better.

Starting

Where have you read that @Northernsoulgirl45?

If they leave it til then we are all
Fooked

I've heard the same @Northensoulgirl45. 2 weeks lockdown, 2 weeks (I don't know), rolling on. Boris is supposedly going on national TV this Tuesday. My husbands away on business, he's coming home early.

The rumours are that is will only be pubs, restaurants and leisure on tuesday. Sounds more sensible that waiting until the end of October.

www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2020/09/19/two-week-circuit-breaker-lockdown-could-be-announced-as-early-as-tuesday-13294772/amp/

What do people think will happen regarding foreign holidays in the october half term ? I have one booked to Turkey

@ceeveebee

If a lockdown is needed then how can they “schedule” it for 6 weeks time! Either it’s needed now or it’s not needed.

Presumably it's because the current figures are deemed to be 'acceptable' whereas the prediction for October is likely to be much worse and at levels that if left unchecked will put pressure back on the NHS

@changing35

What do people think will happen regarding foreign holidays in the october half term ? I have one booked to Turkey

If Turkey is on the "essential travel only" list at that point then you can't go.

Well as a vaccine is months off, if ever, what will they do after that lockdown? Lockdown forever? We could eat grass and rock back and forward with misery but at least be free from a virus that doesn’t affect 99.95 per cent of us...

Well as a vaccine is months off, if ever, what will they do after that lockdown? Lockdown forever?

For the long term there are only two alternatives. Either there is a significant medical advance or we decide to live with the risk. It’s early enough that we are all hoping for the first but in 6 months it will be clearer if that hope was forlorn.

I am not sure lockdown is really the right term for the new restrictions it seems they will put in place. Is shutting pubs at 10pm really a lockdown?

Yes. But in 6 months buggering around with lockdowns and closures and an econocmial catastrophe it’s too late to say “oops- should have taken plan a”.

Can no one else see the blindingly obvious truth that we now need to plan to let the virus go through?

Can no one else see the blindingly obvious truth that we now need to plan to let the virus go through?

This suggestion normally comes the addition of “and protect the elderly and vulnerable “.The problem is that it’s not clear it is actually possible to separate everyone over 65 from the rest of the population for 6 months, say. It would mean no one over 65 leaving the house and their all living alone with no help in the house either.

Well it wouldn’t. The risk even at under 75 is very low. It’s medical conditions that exacerbate it and we know so much more now. How to treat, what not to do and the overall risk factors.

As my mum says / better she takes the 0.05 per cent risk age 76 than my neighbour who has terminal cancer which wasn’t caught in time.

The risk even at under 75 is very low.

Sadly I don’t think you are right . See www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4

One reason why you are mistaken is that having comorbities is increasingly the norm as you get older.

The risk of death at under 75 is only low for white women in normal health.

It is very wrong to airbrush out both the non-lethal but still highly undesirable other complications, and also the population which is vulnerable at any age

Can no one else see the blindingly obvious truth that we now need to plan to let the virus go through?

Not in my name

I think that is both the riskiest policy (worse economic collapse) and the most heartless

Stop and think - why would a Tory government be ready to damage the economy?