Possible national lockdown over October half-term

[GetRid]

FT reports that Sage are looking at a 2 week national lockdown to coincide with October half-term.

article here

[quote Ecosse]@weepingwillow22

Those kind of scaremongering numbers have not been seen in France or anywhere else, in fact.[/quote]
It is not scaremongering it is maths.

The UK doubling rate is 7 to 8 days
www.ft.com/content/c525663e-a66a-48da-8c27-39f7ca3d9204

What is the doubling rate in France?

Yes but exponential growth is maths - but it isn't real life which doesn't quite work that way.

Some areas are going towards exponential growth
Some areas are linear and remaining stable

We need an effective system to manage this to effectively use the mathematical models - its this which is failing. Without the correct data modelling the maths behind it doesnt work.

And we are no way in March - at all.

Yes, that's the issue with modelling.

You can't punch Real Life with all its nuances and subtleties and infinite human behaviours into a statistical model.

@HesterShaw1 your mentality is exactly the reason we no longer visit Cornwall.

Instead we visit Pembrokeshire where the cases are equally low but the people are just so much more humble grounded & none judgmental.

Yes the maths and the ‘models’ are often incorrect. We have human behaviour to factor in.

Dido has admired she used a SAGE model
over the summer to predict demand for September onwards. Apparently the model said demand wouldn’t increase. Whereas any idiot could tell you kids going back to schools = lots of illnesses = lots of tests.

We are however behaving completely different to last March when there no restrictions.

No only that but the doubling of 7-8 days is an average of England as a whole - within that there are going to be areas (one assumes North East and Lancashire) that are rising quicker.

I am angry at the idea of a national lockdown because it should not be needed and doesnt help.

Matt Hancock and Boris Johnson should be ashamed at their complete incompetence. Germany have managed from the start to be able to have sufficient data to make regional decisions - why cant we?

[quote IfOnlyOurEyesSawSouls]@HesterShaw1 your mentality is exactly the reason we no longer visit Cornwall.

Instead we visit Pembrokeshire where the cases are equally low but the people are just so much more humble grounded & none judgmental. [/quote]
WTF?

My attitude? I'm confused. I said residents had been bombarded my media messages that the influx of tourists would bring a mass of death, so many of them had behaved very cautiously. After all, many of them are old and there's very limited hospital capacity.

The media did an absolute number on them. Those fears were unfounded.

I think you might have misunderstood my meaning.

but I'm glad you like Pembrokshire. I agree, it's lovely.

I suspect that the level of demand was estimated on the predicted numbers of people with Covid symptoms

The scientists didn’t realise that lots of people without symptoms would be demanding a test, either for their own peace of mind or because they have been told to get one by their school or employer

It was entirely predictable though. Kids get colds in September and take them home.

It's as inevitable as the shortening days.

Well the scientists should have anticipated that with everyone back at school and work then the demand for tests would go up. It’s not rocket science. Yes lots of people are getting unnecessary tests. But we should have known that basic demand would increase in September for many reasons as everything opened back up again.

The point of the first national lockdown was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and it worked. There should be no need for another lockdown and definitely no need to close schools. The nightingale hospitals are built, ventilators purchased- life needs to go on. The proposed cures are worse than the disease in terms of long term, irreversible harms

@HermioneWeasley

The point of the first national lockdown was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and it worked. There should be no need for another lockdown and definitely no need to close schools. The nightingale hospitals are built, ventilators purchased- life needs to go on. The proposed cures are worse than the disease in terms of long term, irreversible harms

^This.

And it's a massive reason why things should have been more sensible and realistic over the summer, in order to control things better now.

At the start this was mooted as a policy. Lockdown in the spring to flatten the curve, and protect the NHS, let it run a bit in the summer while taking sensible precautions when people could be out and about getting as active as possible, and then seeing where we were. It was quietly forgotten about and instead they embarked on this quest to eliminate death itself. Even BJ's War On Fat has resulted in nothing but a couple of TV adverts.

Instead we were in our houses and not allowed to mix at all until June, by which time we had had two months of lovely warm weather, while they dicked around with press conferences and not sorting out the schools issue. What did they think was going to happen to people's immunity to other coughs and colds if they were kept apart from one another most of the summer? Instead...oh let's release them all at once. Genius.

Do you remember in late feb / early March there were rumours of an extended Easter break finish early for school holidays to avoid a longer lockdown. Two weeks would be pointless if there is another lockdown it will be the same as before rumours of longer half term to stop the spread. Then extended and extended.

I've just checked and half term for us is six weeks away! Are they really going to wait they long with cases getting out of control again like they are?

Wouldn't it be too late by then anyway? The R rate is 1.7 across parts of the country and with so many unable to get tested it's going to spread with schools and offices full of people with 'just a cold' and not wanting to isolate their household for 14 days.

@Beebityboo

I've just checked and half term for us is six weeks away! Are they really going to wait they long with cases getting out of control again like they are?

That's the genius of Hancock and Johnson. If the shit is hitting the fan now, waiting till October makes no sense whatsoever.

Mind you does anything they do make sense. I'm sure they are "following the science".

I don't really get why workplaces and schools would stay open. Hardly a lockdown in that case . Also, half terms are different times around the UK so not sure that will work. As well as the fact that half term is quite a way off...

Workplaces would stay open because that it how an economy works
Schools would stay open to facilitate workplaces and to provide education
Not exactly hard to understand...

The covid surveillance showed rhinoviruses up a lot.
So not sure where they get the info on that as i dont think the swab does that.
My kid was negative with 2 maybe 3 symtoms. I think it probably was a rhinovirus.
The other kid had no temp just slightly runy nose and cough. But if 100% of my kids had at least 1 symtom and 50% had 2, you can see how the tests get used up.
Temps and coughs in kids are probably very common.
Temps in adults not very much.

Keepibg d&v kids off longer would probably slow covid too. As anyway sometimes that in one kid is a cold virus in another.
If we assume everyone had symptoms then mostly thats viral i assume and there are also all those not testing who actually have a cold.
So people need to try harder with SD and at schools.
I imagine some have started doing more in other people's houses due to weather etc

Are they playing the same game as last time? Waiting for the calls, to our saviour BJ to "lock us down, Boris, lock us down!"
"October half term is too far away. We need it to happen now." Never mind all the people who will lose their livelihoods and possibly their home. Never mind the children and their education. People must not die of covid. (All other causes are fine, apparently)

What's rhinovirus !?

@Spinakker

What's rhinovirus !?

Rhino is Greek for nose! Basically the common cold.

I’m just sat here reading all the replies, looking at the news and thinking, tick tock. It’s inevitable a second lockdown is going to happen, the numbers are going to get out of control otherwise.

It’s going to be interesting to see how this impacts those who have already had the virus if they get it again. Reinfection has happened a lot already I know, however not in the same scope as another wave. Will we see further complications as a result of this? We need to just keep everything crossed that there isn’t another mutation that makes this worse either here or in another country. Watch international news closely, once countries start closing up we will follow suit, despite the economic impact.

@Thewiseoneincognito
I think reinfection has happened about 6 times in the whole world?