Another National Lockdown

[Malachite234]

What are the chances ? Sky News are reporting the possibility and a second lockdown has become a reality in Israel.

How likely do you think it is ?

@Itsabeautifuldayheyhey

could you imagine if they tried to lockdown people over say 75 back in March. The outrage would have been immense and yet they are by FAR the most at risk.
Does being age 75 and over automatically put people at risk though or is it the health conditions people have that put them at risk, regardless of age?
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Given that the average age of death from / with the virus is 82 then yes being over 75 does automatically put people at risk. In the same way as being over 80 puts people of dying from any cause at more risk.

I'm not surprised there would be outrage if protection was solely focused on the elderly (who do of course deserve protection). The millions of younger vulnerable should be protected too.

It would also be outrageous to protect some groups from death but put everyone else at risk of permanent lung, heart, and brain damage from Long Covid. The numbers of disabled and vulnerable would increase dramatically.

[quote 1dayatatime]@Itsabeautifuldayheyhey

could you imagine if they tried to lockdown people over say 75 back in March. The outrage would have been immense and yet they are by FAR the most at risk.
Does being age 75 and over automatically put people at risk though or is it the health conditions people have that put them at risk, regardless of age?
^
+++++
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Given that the average age of death from / with the virus is 82 then yes being over 75 does automatically put people at risk. In the same way as being over 80 puts people of dying from any cause at more risk.[/quote]
It's not people over 75. It's people over 50. Does this change things?

I honestly can't see it. Reclose all shops and pubs and restaurants? Send everyone home from work? Close schools? Restart the furlough scene? Pay more out to freelancers? I know the numbers aren't great and point in that direction, and I might be wrong.... but I honestly don't believe the government will go down that route.

@toolatetooearly I wonder if they'll lock everything down and just not pay anything out?

[quote MaxNormal]@toolatetooearly I wonder if they'll lock everything down and just not pay anything out?[/quote]
They’d have to. No way can the money be found for months more of furlough.

I will comply but agree the government have lost every shred of goodwill from the public.

There are 7 of us in 3 different households.
We did stick to the rules from March to sometime in July, but no more.
I'm not missing out on seeing my dc or gc.
It's personal opinion and your own risk assessment.
The adults in my family are all wfh, don't go to pubs and won't be socialising, due to new baby or underlying health issues.

@VinylDetective This is why I don't think they will lockdown - they can't afford to pay out furlough etc again, but equally, they can't afford not to. Both in terms of job losses, compliance, and the damage it will do to the party. I can see further restrictions, but not full April/May style lockdown.

At the end of the day an extra two months furlough won't make much difference. Particularly if this time they don't waste millions on fraudulent claims.

It also doesn't have to be quite as generous. Still pay something but not quite as much. Better still, universal basic income. No one falls through the gaps, no huge administrative costs, less room for fraud.

@SheepandCow

At the end of the day an extra two months furlough won't make much difference. Particularly if this time they don't waste millions on fraudulent claims.

It also doesn't have to be quite as generous. Still pay something but not quite as much. Better still, universal basic income. No one falls through the gaps, no huge administrative costs, less room for fraud.

Of course it will make a difference. You can only bankrupt the country once and they’ve already done it. Why do you think they’re so anxious to get people back into the office?

@VinylDetective the money will be found. There will be no other option unless we want a chaotic breakdown in social order and crime rising because millions have no money. It’ll never happen.

People need to start understanding that until there is a vaccine this is the reality, a few months lockeddown a few months open again. This is the same thing globally.

We’re nowhere near Israeli situation but it could easily happen unless our Government get their act together. Israel I’m sure “couldn’t afford” to lockdown either. Their hospitals are overflowing. I’d love to hear what those who propose we just ignore the virus and carry on as usual suggest countries do when healthcare becomes overwhelmed? Just let people die in the street? If not of Covid then traffic accidents etc? I really don’t think people think through what they propose.

They’d have to. No way can the money be found for months more of furlough.

That'll be an interesting one socially. Lockdown with no additional financial assistance would a shortcut to social unrest.

So I'm not really sure what the answer is.

@StealthPolarBear

but agree the government have lost every shred of goodwill from the public.
You can only speak for yourself. They haven't lost mine. The Govt are doing what they think is best in this situation. They have got some things wrong and some things right as have most, if not all, Govts throughout the world.
I would be supportive if a labour Govt was in power, too. I'm sure any party would be doing their best to get us through this situation (and getting some things right and some things wrong). It's a tough gig.

The money can’t be found. Where do you think it’s going to come from? Of course you can’t leave millions of people with no money, that’s precisely why there won’t be another national lockdown. We don’t need one anyway - infection might be up but deaths and hospital admissions aren’t.

That's good. I started giving them my faith and the benefit of the doubt but afraid the lying and failure upon failure while talking about "world-beating" systems has changed my outlook. I will be installing the app but it was a debate.

It's pretty low to use disabled people as an excuse for widespread lack of mask wearing
It's just as well I haven't commented on disabled people then isn't it? Are you hard of reading or comprehension?

@rubbishatballet

Mmm. Some random comes on Mumsnet and starts talking about secret preparations for a mid October vaccine deployment, which is three weeks time.

I think not.

Despite conflicting with the flu jab, which would be completely untested.

No, I don't think so.

@VinylDetective you have looked into the lag from infections in the young to older or more vulnerable people yes? Then obviously the lag from hospital admissions to deaths?

We'll continue fucking up the economy a lot more by doing what we've been doing. Ignoring the problem, pretending it will all go away if we wish hard enough.

In, out, in, out is no good either. The cheapest option is two months proper lockdown then gradual opening up (like New York is doing). With borders closed for longer. (Essential travel allowed but with proper quarantine where necessary).

That's the best option for the long-term economy.

Our furlough was more generous than it needed to be. We could do another two months but with slightly less given out. Oh and perhaps we could fund it through clawing back the money claimed fraudulently?

@Itsabeautifuldayheyhey

It's pretty low to use disabled people as an excuse for widespread lack of mask wearing It's just as well I haven't commented on disabled people then isn't it? Are you hard of reading or comprehension?

I responded directly by quoting one of your posts. That speaks about disabled people. It's just a few posts up on this thread

@SheepandCow exactly. All the countries who have dealt with Covid as effectively as possible have taken the least economic hit.

The two are so interwoven we cannot ignore Covid if we want the economy to recover faster. The Government are slowly coming round to this, hastened by the Long Covid issue and the fact that any vaccine won’t be a silver bullet. Do you watch the WHO updates? It’s been stated early indicators are the vaccines are working well in one group not another. I’d guess not well in the elderly.

It’s not rocket science. I wish people could separate what they want the reality to be from the reality we are actually facing!

@Oaktree55 we don't have to "think through" anything, we're not making government policy here. We're just aimlessly speculating with strangers on the internet....