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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:03

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

OP posts:
Thread gallery
50
BighouseLittlemouse · 17/09/2020 14:50

@RaggieDolls - it appears the council requested to be included.

It could be to do with work patterns for south Northumberland at least - as in many work in areas that have higher rates. But it would be interesting to see the reasoning ( could also be they have extra data on how it’s rising)

RaggieDolls · 17/09/2020 14:57

Thanks @BighouseLittlemouse I've not been following what's been happening in Northumberland. I guess the rate per 100,000 is a blunt instrument because it doesn't give a picture of how stable infection levels may or may not be or where the majority of transmission is taking place.

Perihelion · 17/09/2020 15:30

4% of the the tests in Scotland today were positive. Feels like it's starting to ramp up now.

CaptainMerica · 17/09/2020 15:38

@Perihelion

4% of the the tests in Scotland today were positive. Feels like it's starting to ramp up now.
It has definitely been rising alarmingly quickly, it was consistently under 1% just a few weeks ago.

However, I am a bit confused about this test positivity number that gets announced every day. The numbers I've seen for the UK as a whole are so much lower. I think it's % of people testing positive, rather than % of tests, but I can't get my head around why that would give a higher result.

IloveJKRowling · 17/09/2020 15:45

SleepymummyZzz

Flowers The situation you are in is, I believe, illegal.

The government has admitted children transmit, yet expect vulnerable teachers to teach classes of 30 with no social distancing, no functioning test and trace and the only protection is washing hands a lot (look how well that worked in March).

Your working environment does not follow scientific advice and lacks all the safeguards (SD and masks) available to all other workers in the economy. I think you posted in another thread about 4 year olds dosed up on calpol and sent in (and how honest they are...)

I hope you have good support from the Head in your school and the unions. I hope something will be done to reduce risks soon.

And if I see another poster say all the vulnerable are shielding ignoring all the teachers and all the parents who are not being allowed to do so, I will SCREAM!

wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 15:55

Scotland definitely reports positivity for newly tested individuals which makes zero sense.

If anyone had been tested negative 2 months ago and is now being tested again with new symptoms, surely they should be treated as a new case? Otherwise we will eventually run out of “newly tested” people. In fact, this may happen sooner than we think given the demand for tests.

conkersarebonkers · 17/09/2020 15:58

However, I am a bit confused about this test positivity number that gets announced every day. The numbers I've seen for the UK as a whole are so much lower. I think it's % of people testing positive, rather than % of tests, but I can't get my head around why that would give a higher result.

Yes - it's the percentage of newly tested individuals who have tested positive. This is how it's described on the SG website:

"The percentage of newly tested individuals that are positive is the number of new confirmed cases shown as a percentage of the number of people newly tested, i.e. the number of people who have tested positive in the past 24 hours / number of people newly tested in the past 24 hours x 100.

The number of people newly tested refers to the number of individuals in Scotland who have been tested for the first time for COVID-19 on the previous day. Note that each person is only counted once regardless of repeat tests. This means that where someone tests positive after receiving a negative test result on a previous day, they would be counted in the new positive cases for that day but in the number of people newly tested on the day they first received a test result."

The total number of daily tests is much higher than the number of newly tested individuals each day.

conkersarebonkers · 17/09/2020 16:02

@wintertravel1980

Scotland definitely reports positivity for newly tested individuals which makes zero sense.

If anyone had been tested negative 2 months ago and is now being tested again with new symptoms, surely they should be treated as a new case? Otherwise we will eventually run out of “newly tested” people. In fact, this may happen sooner than we think given the demand for tests.

Agree. I think the idea is maybe to avoid people who are tested frequently as part of their job from being counted multiple times. But it's a weird measure, not ever truly representing the situation on any given day.
wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 16:06

I think the Scotland approach makes sense if the two tests are indeed one day apart but as time passes, there will be more and more people who get tested multiple times for different illnesses (e.g. back in March and now).

There should be a cut off time (two weeks? 28 days?) after which the new test starts counting as the new case.

Ecosse · 17/09/2020 16:11

The test positivity figure is not representative given that most testing capacity has been moved to areas with high case rates.

sunseekin · 17/09/2020 16:12

[quote Derbygerbil]@ReadtheData

Things aren’t good, but I think that’s unduly pessimistic. If we were anywhere near to, let alone above, March’s peak, we’d be seeing a much bigger surge in hospitalisations than we are currently.[/quote]
It’s a different profile of the population with covid at the moment so hospitalisations will be lower.

Unfortunately a high number of cases also makes for lots of chains of transmission to more vulnerable groups.

And we have an ever diminishing idea of where these cases are and how they’re growing.

I don’t think the government will react until the public are properly alarmed though (ie it will be too late to save thousands of lives again).

BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 16:12

What is important is the % of people who are positive, not the the % positive tests
It doesn't matter re infection spread whether it takes 1,2 or 3 tests per person

However, those getting pillar 2 tests are not a typical sample of the community, but mostly a sample of those with symptoms, or with close contact to an infected person
i.e. more likely than the average person to be infected

So the real % infected would be lower by some unknown amount

" The truth comes to those who wait :)"

Indeed, we need to wait for the ONS weekly infection report tomorrow
Last report had 1 in 1,400 infected in England, 1 in 1,200 in Wales, but said infection rates were increasing

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/09/2020 16:16

Apologies if that is very obvious to most here, but elsewhere I have read posters getting very alarmed that 3% of the population are currently infected, which of course is nowhere near the case.

OP posts:
CaptainMerica · 17/09/2020 16:20

Thanks. I guess, even though it is not a measure that can be used to compare to the overall UK test positivity, it is still useful, in that we can see how quickly it is rising.

MarcelineMissouri · 17/09/2020 16:21

3395 new cases today.

wintertravel1980 · 17/09/2020 16:21

Looks like processing times are getting slightly better.

Out of 2,788 cases reported today in England:

  • 41 tested on September 16
  • 1,015 on Sep 15
  • 1,080 on Sep 14
  • 214 on Sep 13
  • 165 on Sep 12
  • 226 on Sep 11
the rest of cases are from earlier in Sep
RedToothBrush · 17/09/2020 16:24

[quote littleowl1]Councils in England with Highest Cases per 100K of Population

I produced this table for a friend this morning and thought I would share here in case anyone else would find it useful.

It shows the councils in England with the highest cases per 100k of population up to Sept 11th (the most recent reliable date for council level data). I couldnt screesnhot all 315 councils but if you want to check any council that is not on this list, the same data is published here: www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/[/quote]
Interesting. Yesterday when they said that there had been a significant readjustment for Bolton's figures upwards for a previous day's data they weren't wrong. That table really shows how much its going on.

The table LittleOwl has put up is data for the 11th as published on the 17th.

The Arcgis app data, which is the one that has been published by Reach newspapers, is updated at about 4pm and shows data for the day four days previous (so the last one was published for the 12th on yesterday on the 16th).

The delays in results is really showing if you compare the arcgis tables for the 10th and 12th (published on the 14th and 16th respectively). I can't find one for the 15th which would relate directly to the 11th but since we know the trend of the rate of cases is increasing in the vast majority of the top areas we can see the problem from these two data sets if you put them next to the covidmessenger table even though you can't compare directly.

For example Oadby and Wigston:
On the 14th the original data for the 10th put the seven day rate at 114.00
On the 16th the original data for the 12th put the seven day rate at
133.3
But the revised data from the 17th relating to the day inbetween both of the other charts seems to be showing its substantially higher on 145.6. If the trend is upward then thats bad news - its showing areas with data lag.

It does look like certain places are getting significantly longer data lags that others from this. I would suspect this MAY highlight local testing capacity issues and a greater reliance on home testing kits (though I could be wrong on this) and perhaps places more at risk of problems with the test shortages.

To show this more clearly, I've put the revised figure for the 11th (italics) next to the provisional for the 12th (plain) and the difference between the two (bold). Its interesting which areas seem to be popping up with figures which seem to suggest the biggest uptick in revision on the 11th.

Bolton 211.1 196.1 +15
Oadby and Wigston 145.6 133.3 +12.3
Hyndburn 127.1 112.3 14.8
Blackburn with Darwen 124.9 116.2 +8.7
Oldham 113 118.1 -5.1
Tameside 112.1 107.7 +4.4
Warrington 110.9 105.2 +5.7
Preston 104.1 120.9 -16.8
Liverpool 100 91.4 +8.6
Bradford 99.5 94.5 +5
Knowsley 98.8 98.8 0
Sunderland 98.7 82.5 +16.2
St Helens 98.6 91.4 +7.2
South Tyneside 98 78.2 +19.8
Burnley 97.8 113.6 -15.8
Wirral 92.0 85.5 +6.5
Rochdale 90.8 83.6 +7.2
Birmingham 90.8 83.6 +7.2
Bury 90.1 84.8 +5.3
Leicester 89.2 86.4 +2.8

I KNOW this is a fudge with data which isn't like for like (so will make data purist wince) but I think it does make a point about the reliability of the initial publication of the arcgis data and how much its underreporting - and where it might be underreporting most.

Why are there such huge differences between areas too? Sunderland and South Tyneside are looking worse on this front than anywhere else which has slightly surprised me tbh - but this should be a concern... and maybe precisely why its gone into lockdown as seemingly as abruptly as it has.

(note - i started this post before 4pm and when the next lot of data has come out).

EducatingArti · 17/09/2020 16:29

@wintertravel1980

Looks like processing times are getting slightly better.

Out of 2,788 cases reported today in England:

  • 41 tested on September 16
  • 1,015 on Sep 15
  • 1,080 on Sep 14
  • 214 on Sep 13
  • 165 on Sep 12
  • 226 on Sep 11
the rest of cases are from earlier in Sep
But that doesn't account for people who are symptomatic but haven't been able to book a test yet!
Witchend · 17/09/2020 16:32

Deaths are creeping up now. I've been watching week by week. Week beginning:
31/8-52 total deaths
7/9-75 deaths
This week already 77 deaths with 3 days left to go. Sad

EducatingArti · 17/09/2020 16:35

This quote is from The Guardian

"Up to four times as many people may be wanting Covid tests as can get them, MPs told
This is what Dido Harding told the committee about what the level of demand for tests is. She said:

There’s significantly more demand than there is capacity today.

The best way we have of estimating the total demand at the moment is the number of people calling 119 and the number of visits to the website ... The number of people calling 119 and visiting the website would three to four times the number of tests that we currently have available, but there will be some double counting in that. People will call from their home line and then from their mobile.

Asked for an estimate of what the demand was, she replied: “It is multiples of the test capacity that we have today.”"

EducatingArti · 17/09/2020 16:37

Apparently Harding also said that none of the modelling showed this type of increase in demand.
I wonder what modelling they used?

ReadtheData · 17/09/2020 16:39

I agree @TheSunIsStillShining. I know many vulnerable people who are definitely not old. There are children too! It's not a long term feasible solution for anyone. My mum is only 59 and and doesn't want to they stuck indoors for another three months on her own.

The point I was making is that in March NOBODY was shielding. A lot of vulnerable people are now, or at least being extra careful where possible, therefore hospital admissions may be lower because of that. Not because of lower cases.

I'm classed as vulnerable now after having covid in March which has wrecked my heart and lungs. I haven't been to a restaurant or a pub, I can't risk it. I'd imagine a lot of people feel like that. My children still go to school but I'm trying to balance the risks. Not easy without tests though...

alreadytaken · 17/09/2020 16:44

Bolton's test rate for the last week, if repeated this week, would mean more than 0.4% of the population tested and likely to be infectious. Given the problems getting tests, that the numbers were rising fast and that ONS data have never come near the tested figures Bolton are likely to have more than 1% potentially infectious. I'd guess someone has assumed 10 people not tested for every one that is to get to 3%.

SleepymummyZzz · 17/09/2020 16:48

JK Rowling thank you so much for your support. I feel like I’m in a parallel universe where no one recognises the risk xx

alreadytaken · 17/09/2020 16:55

The advice given to the shielding was always ridiculous. Staying in your own home all the time depletes vitamin D levels and was probably actually dangerous. Anyone with a garden should take advantage of sunshine and fresh air and if you dont have a garden get outside early morning or late at night. Wear a mask if you still think you'll pass people, although as long as you can go past reasonably quickly you are unlikely to be exposed to enough virus to infect you anyway.

Of course that doesnt help those being forced to work or to send their children to school, the treatment of those people is disgusting.

Readthedata the lung damage after Covid is gradually improving for some people so there is hope on that front. I dont know what is happening with heart issues.

Swipe left for the next trending thread