Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

I know where Gav was today!

At my ds college! He was interviewing students in ds class as they are first to do new T level. Presenter did ask about COVID and testing as his college also has a case and is online learning for that class for 2 weeks.

What did he say?

@littleowl1 @3boys

Thanks for your graphs this morning. Sorry for the delay in thanking you too- my son’s negative test came through and I was able to return to work!

They understand the issues which is why they have each school a small number of tests for those who had no way of getting to a testing centre. (So what you'd expect!)

It's on South today. And you'll remember all issues I had with my ds (the bullying and knife etc) and how you and others supported me. My ds is one of the children speaking

@PatriciaHolm
Thanks, yes, it's the official figure from tested population

@RaggieDolls

Quite surprised to see Northumberland (26/100,000) included in the new North Eastern restrictions. It raises the possibility of the same happening in the North West including areas such as Cheshire East (24/100,000) and South Lakeland (11/100,000).

Has anyone seen anything that sets out the logic of the north-eastern decision.

Knowing what Newcastle types are like they'd all pile into Northumberland on day trips and to the pubs etc. Even if not allowed. There's a lot of connection between Newcastle and Northumberland, many commute etc. (We spend a lot of time up the coast.)

It's also a border to Scotland so perhaps needs to maintain low cases?

It also may be that the hospital infrastructure couldn't cope with a spike there anyway.

Oooh wow it's! Well done your ds!

@Fyzz

I came across this on the BBC yesterday The graph showing cases from March to now. There is an estimate that the 6000 cases a day of that time was probably only 5% of the total because no one in the community was tested. So potentially 120000 cases then compared with c3500 now. Not news to anyone on this thread but the vast majority of the public see that graph all the time. Would be useful to see the graph reproduced with an estimate of the real numbers at the peak of the pandemic.

Someone (sorry! Can't remember who) posted this earlier in the thread:

ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-new-estimated-infections-of-covid-19?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=~GBR&region=World

@wintertravel1980

Looks like processing times are getting slightly better.

Out of 2,788 cases reported today in England:

• 41 tested on September 16
• 1,015 on Sep 15
• 1,080 on Sep 14
• 214 on Sep 13
• 165 on Sep 12
• 226 on Sep 11

the rest of cases are from earlier in Sep

Presumably the greater the delay on getting samples tested the greater the chance of false negatives 🧐

What's happened regarding the GM review? I've not heard anything and it was due to be today. The lowest rates in the region are 43.4 and the highest 189.9. Yet the NE has lower rates? There's no logic to any of this.

This is BAD

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/bolton-coronavirus-testing-cases-rate-18951529
One in ten Bolton Covid tests now coming back positive - that's double the rate in the rest of Greater Manchester

The number of positive tests has gone up by 644 per cent in the last month

Almost one in ten coronavirus swabs in Bolton are now coming back positive, according to new test data.

The 'positivity rate' in Bolton has reached 9.7 per cent - which is almost twice has high as the rest of Greater Manchester, the numbers show.

The latest figures show that of the 6,392 tests carried out in the borough in the week up to September 12, 618 came back positive.

The positive test rate of 9.7pc is significantly higher than the average for the whole of Greater Manchester, which stands at 5.1pc.

The next highest rate in the region was in Salford, where 6.4pc of tests came back positive.

In comparison, just 3.4pc of tests were positive in neighbouring Wigan.

and

The data, which was released by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, also shows that the number of positive tests in Bolton is rising far quicker than the number of tests being taken.

Last week, the number of tests carried out in Bolton was up 14pc compared with four weeks earlier, in the week ending August 15.

But over the same period, the number of positive tests has gone up more than 40 times faster, rising by 644 per cent.

Thanks to all the contributors on this thread. I have no faith in my government to make sensible decisions about anything and am relying on you brilliant lot to keep me informed. I am an ex-shielded parent with a child in primary and secondary schools where there is no social distancing and find this information so useful to keep the risks in perspective.

Luckily, I'm in the South West (thanks for the Bristol link @edujaded) and so am ok with spinning the roulette wheel of kids in school a little longer. Not sure how I'd feel if we were in the NW or NE just now.

to @SleepymummyZzz and anyone else in a similar position. It's shit being a ECV parent, I have no idea what they're thinking with school staff

Oh that's' nice to hear its (about your DS that is, not silly sausage Gav).

Nadine Dorries has my school on her no fly list since our kids once gave her such a grilling. Her DD attended for a while. I use 'attended ' in the loosest possible sense!!

Also see Liverpool:

liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
Coronavirus cases by area
Report published 17th September 2020
Cases data from week 8th-14th September 2020

Data extracted covering testing up to 14 September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 537, an increase of 201 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of COVID-19 in Liverpool is 107.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 7.6%.

There has been a rapid and worrying increase in cases in Liverpool since the 1 September, when there were 94 cases per week, to the current level of 537 cases per week.

Of those cases where ethnicity was given, 86% people were recorded as White British and 14% people were from a Black and Minority Ethnic background. The majority of cases (55%) were in those aged under 40 years, whereas 27% cases were in those aged 40-59 yrs. Of all the confirmed cases in the last seven days 49% were female and 51% were male.

Just regarding the feeling of bias in the media towards the south and even midlands, I bring you this, pinched from the NE thread...

@Bercows

What's happened regarding the GM review? I've not heard anything and it was due to be today. The lowest rates in the region are 43.4 and the highest 189.9. Yet the NE has lower rates? There's no logic to any of this.

NE Council leaders insisted on this and pushed it through.

@Captain Thanks for the v useful link to true number of infections this year
I'll snatch that to add to the next OP

@itsgettingweird

They understand the issues which is why they have each school a small number of tests for those who had no way of getting to a testing centre. (So what you'd expect!)

It's on South today. And you'll remember all issues I had with my ds (the bullying and knife etc) and how you and others supported me. My ds is one of the children speaking

Our school has 10 tests for a school of about 2000

@Bercows
MEN says nothing probably happening for at least another week but who knows. I’m in Stockport which is at the bottom of the list but the growth in cases across GM is bloody alarming especially as we have been in some kind of lockdown since the end of July so it hasn’t worked

red That 9.4% Bolton positivity rate is shocking, with Liverpool too on 7.6%

Ah, Bolton 9.7% positivity

My only explanation for them not announcing the NE and NW lockdowns on the same day is that ours is going to be harsher tomorrow. It better bloody had be with those percentages

Good for MiniWeird speaking up 👏🏼
I hope he washed his hands thoroughly after being near Gav - he won't want to catch stupid

Exactly witch his "we have each school a small number" is the 10 per school!

neurotrash that can't be real???