Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

and Dido Harding must be using the back of a fag packet for her modelling.

ATM 0.57% of the UK population has had or has covid. We are very far off from the non-existent herd mentality (a la trump)

I don’t know if this is the appropriate place to share but in case anyone is interested, live tweeting from the:
Science and Technology Committee Meeting UK Science, Research and Technology Capability and Influence in Global Disease Outbreaks

Witnesses:
Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine & Director, University of Oxford;

Dr Thomas Waite, Director,Joint Biosecurity Centre;

Professor Sylvia Richardson, Director, MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health

Prof Richardson: increase is being seen in infections, but must be interpreted with caution because of sampling characteristics (i.e. selection of those coming forward for testing). ONS and REACT studies may have less bias, but also have smaller sample sizes

Dr Waite: deaths & hospitalisations are lagged data (wait two weeks etc). We wouldn't expect to see an uptick based on the people we're seeing getting infected at the moment

Heneghan: increase in detected cases on Sept 2nd. Right around bank holiday (he means delay processing tests), and right after Eat Out to help Out (may have increased cases). Then, in Sept, 50% increase in consultations for acute respiratory infection. This is highly predictable for going back to school, back to work, etc. Many people are coming forward fr medical care with COVID alongside other respiratory pathogens

mobile.twitter.com/jadenozzz/status/1306587037244428291

@TheSunIsStillShining

ATM 0.57% of the UK population has had or has covid. We are very far off from the non-existent herd mentality (a la trump)

The figure is much higher than that.

Far far from herd immunity.

Is that the percentage who have tested positive?

@TheSunIsStillShining

ATM 0.57% of the UK population has had or has covid. We are very far off from the non-existent herd mentality (a la trump)

I thought it around 8 to 10%? Higher in some areas (London). Where is this figure from?

@EducatingArti

Apparently Harding also said that none of the modelling showed this type of increase in demand. I wonder what modelling they used?

I don’t know, would they include common cold symptoms of children in first week of school in modelling?

This may be obvious but I wouldn’t know

I tested positive for coronavirus yesterday and I have been reading this thread to keep my mind off the scarier info out there. It's a great resource with impressive contributions.

Marsha
It wouldn't have exactly been rocket science to realise that this would be a problem. Any teacher and most parents could have told them. However there again they don't exactly have a good track record of listening to teachers.

@EducatingArti

Marsha It wouldn't have exactly been rocket science to realise that this would be a problem. Any teacher and most parents could have told them. However there again they don't exactly have a good track record of listening to teachers.

Maybe. But I am interested in whether they did include it. By your answer I’m guessing not.

Tbh early school illness hasn’t crossed my mind, but we rarely get colds (tough wood). But then I’m not running the system.

Touch

As a scientist on R4 just pointed out, gradually increasing testing as has happened over the summer is not exactly a match for W virus with exponential growth rates!

Hope you're OK @CornishGiant

There have been quite a few negative tests amongst friends though

CornishGiant this study is why you should get out in any sunshine there may be where you are, while keeping away from other people, of course.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/

@TheSunIsStillShining

ATM 0.57% of the UK population has had or has covid. We are very far off from the non-existent herd mentality (a la trump)

That's using the official number of tested cases - far far more people than that have actually had it. PHE Surveillance reports suggest, for example;

"New adjusted seroprevalence estimates based on samples from adult blood donors in London and the North West were 12.6% and 6.8% respectively".

The average is just under 6%.

I’m in Oadby and Wigston.
Cases are rocketing but we have no restrictions whatsoever except for a 5pm-7am, just introduced, curfew on parks.
The council has asked residents to voluntarily follow the Leicester restrictions but seems unlikely to happen.
It’s mad. I’m shielding here watching the rates rise day by day.

I came across this on the BBC yesterday The graph showing cases from March to now. There is an estimate that the 6000 cases a day of that time was probably only 5% of the total because no one in the community was tested. So potentially 120000 cases then compared with c3500 now.
Not news to anyone on this thread but the vast majority of the public see that graph all the time.
Would be useful to see the graph reproduced with an estimate of the real numbers at the peak of the pandemic.

@CornishGiant
Are you ok?
Have a little garden I hope? All the best

@CornishGiant I have bookmarked this trial - the treatment looks promising to me and I'd take the 50% chance of the treatment. www.covidtrialathome.com/

This modelling must have been done by my year 12 sociology class.

Any predictions I have seen said return to school raises R by approximately 1 ...ergo, a rise in cases, ergo a need for greater testing and testing capacity...

Surely, they can't be this stupid??

Surely, they can't be this stupid??
🤔😱

I am fine. At first I was very scared. But I'm under 30 with no risk factors. My children are young with no risk factors too. Reading this has helped me realise on a personal/ individual level I have nothing to fear really.

That's good to hear @CornishGiant

@pussycatinboots

Surely, they can't be this stupid?? 🤔😱

they are. but some of us voted for them

@CornishGiant

I am fine. At first I was very scared. But I'm under 30 with no risk factors. My children are young with no risk factors too. Reading this has helped me realise on a personal/ individual level I have nothing to fear really.

...... Cornish 💐 As a healthy young woman in your 20s you are at absolutely tiny risk of the more severe symtoms and your young children are at even lower risk.

I'm glad if reading some facts and data here has helped you feel calmer

Except they were being told schools were covid secure. So all these colds shouldn't have spread with all this erm. Oh yeah just handwashing.