Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

For the people wondering why Northumberland was included , are the rates in south east Northumberland ( Cramlington, Blythe valley, ashington ) perhaps higher than Northumberland as a whole?

@Piggywaspushed

Oh that's' nice to hear its (about your DS that is, not silly sausage Gav).

Nadine Dorries has my school on her no fly list since our kids once gave her such a grilling. Her DD attended for a while. I use 'attended ' in the loosest possible sense!!

Go, those kids!

I'm currently trying and failing to track down the positivity rate by local authority.

A positivity rate above 5% tends to suggest that they have lost control of the situation in that area.

My feeling about retrospectively adjusted figures and lack of testing facility had Liverpool ranking particularly poorly, which would tie in with a very high positivity rate.

But I can't find the data to support my theory.

I think that we will find there is a particularly bad problem with Sunderland, South Tyneside, Bolton, Hyndburn, Oadby and Wigston, Blackburn with Darwen, Liverpool, St Helens, Rochdale, Birmingham, Wirral, Warrington, Bury and Bradford.

Its interesting that tonight C4 news are running a story
www.channel4.com/news/government-being-complacent-over-virus-testing-says-newcastle-city-council-leader-nick-forbes
Government being ‘complacent’ over virus testing, says Newcastle City Council leader Nick Forbes

and the local newspaper there is running a story about a test centre where people were booked in, but people turned up to find there was no one there to test them

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/doxford-park-test-centre-sunderland-18953706
No staff at Sunderland test centre on day new North East lockdown measures announced
People who had booked a test at Doxford Park were told by the media they would not be tested, as there were no officials there to inform them.

And I suspect it wil turn out these are the places that need extra capacity via the hometests most - because the testing sites on the ground are insufficient for demand / poorly located for accessibility.

But as I say its just a theory, and I'd need to see the data to start getting an idea of whether its true or not... I'm sure we will find out in due course.

However with positivity rates that high, PHE can not possibly have control of the situation and transmission is out of control.

I really do not understand the pissing about and delay with a local lockdown in Liverpool in this context. Every 24 hours is important.

@Toomanyapplesinthefruitbowl

My only explanation for them not announcing the NE and NW lockdowns on the same day is that ours is going to be harsher tomorrow. It better bloody had be with those percentages

Or to ensure publicity is adequate and there is enough awareness.

But yeah, also could be lots of scratching of heads about how to handle things and how strict to be.

Its anxiety inducing.

For context - at the height of the crisis the positivity rate was 40%. At its lowest it was 1.12% in July. Nationally it was at 2.5% on 7th.

I'm guessing that if Bolton's rate is coming out at 189 per 100,000 with 10% positivity rate, to get a true number of the figures to compare with the rest of the country, I'd say you could safety double if not triple that figure of 189.

Piggy

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000mslh/south-today-evening-news-17092020

Start at 13.15.

There's a bit about T level and then he interviews him about testing.

Tapper COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group – Are we experiencing a 2nd wave ?

Analysis of hospital admissions, deaths & R

https://henrytapper.com/2020/09/17/are-we-experiencing-a-second-wave-asks-stuart-mcdonald/

Doesn't look good does it. That summary was pretty short but very succinct.

Will watch later !

the "real numbers at the peak of the pandemic" are estimates from various different models, none of them really predicting the current increase and with a wide range of variation. So while they are useful in showing that cases were believed to be much higher none of them are "real" in any normal sense of that word.

@NeurotrashWarrior

Just regarding the feeling of bias in the media towards the south and even midlands, I bring you this, pinched from the NE thread...

Whoever is in the graphics department is "aware" of the north, but doesn't really know where it is...

@RedToothBrush - the empty testing centre was just in BBC news ( I think the one featured in the chronicle).

It does appear that the NE councils themselves pushed for the immediate and relatively strict lockdown. Even MH seemed to indicate this. I guess other councils in NW might be balancing different things ( different economies, different levels and spread of the virus? etc) and therefore not pushing for it as quickly ( also because they are in restrictions already).

Its depressing how the north east has risen so quickly when it’s had many areas with such low levels.

@alreadytaken

the "real numbers at the peak of the pandemic" are estimates from various different models, none of them really predicting the current increase and with a wide range of variation. So while they are useful in showing that cases were believed to be much higher none of them are "real" in any normal sense of that word.

... My own calculations are that the UK peak cases was slightly over 200,000

However, the great value of those various modelling curves is that all show the tiny proportion of cases now compared to then,
compared to the completely misleading graphs that keep being posted,
and answers the frequent queries on so many other threads about why so few hospitalisations and deaths atm if the virus hasn't drastically changed.

The modelling estimates of rwal cases give perspective to where we are now

The modelling estimates of real cases give perspective to where we are now

Sky reporting a Lancashire lockdown tomorrow now too.

Not caught up but please say you are watching BBC Question Time.

amp.ft.com/content/77a1e3b6-3864-4a24-88af-df19fd22f235?__twitter_impression=true
Second national lockdown proposed by UK scientific advisers
Government’s advisory bodies look at restrictions to coincide with October school half-term

Leeds may be added too

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lancashire-will-be-placed-under-tighter-lockdown-measures-12074606

Hancock has told senior MPs from the county that he will announce the clampdown in the morning and the rules will come into force on Saturday.

The coronavirus restrictions, similar to those being introduced in North East England, will cover the whole of Lancashire with the exception of two thirds of the seaside resort of Blackpool.

The coronavirus restrictions, similar to those being introduced in North East England, will cover the whole of Lancashire with the exception of two thirds of the seaside resort of Blackpool.
....
In contrast with the North East, Lancashire's new local rules are not expected to feature a 10pm curfew for bars and pubs
and a ban on people mixing with others outside their household.

The restrictions for Lancashire, on which Mr Hancock is expected to be quizzed following a Commons statement on Monday,
will outlaw socialising with different households in homes, private gardens, public parks, restaurants, and pub beer gardens.

There will also be curbs on using public transport,
with advice urging people to use buses and trains only for essential trips such as education, work, and health appointments.

Pillar 1+2 was 3.22 % positivity in England on 9 September.
Now ??

@BigChocFrenzy

I suspect the positivity rate will be higher simply because most testing capacity has been moved to areas of high transmission.

Personally, by October half term, I think a two week lockdown will be too late. That's still five weeks away, and things seem like they have got a lot worse in just the last two weeks, really.

As someone else said upthread, I feel in school there's an abnormal number of children off with cold/flu type symptoms, even if not coronavirus. It may be parents are just being more cautious (which is probably a good thing), but I had 8 kids off in one class today, and nominally only 3 of them were self isolating- the others were reporting other symptoms.

I know people down here (rural SW) are finding it very hard to get a test. In theory, the LA has a very low number of cases, but if you look at cases vs deaths, the overall deaths are at well over 10% of cases- which suggests a huge number of cases being missed. I also think if you are unwell, you are probably not really capable of driving 1-2 hours to get tested.

Our case numbers for the last week are low, but they have been almost doubling week on week for a few weeks now, which to me is concerning.

@Oldbagface

Not caught up but please say you are watching BBC Question Time.

They never fail to get the loonies on.

Irresponsible BBC again.

@Timeforanotherusername

Why is anyone who doesn’t join in with the scaremongering a ‘looney’?

[quote Ecosse]@BigChocFrenzy

I suspect the positivity rate will be higher simply because most testing capacity has been moved to areas of high transmission.[/quote]
Hasn't this been the case for a while though- that areas of high transmission have been prioritised, and test-and-trace contacts (who are obviously more likely to be ill) have been prioritised?

I'm not convinced this can explain the sudden jump in cases- particularly as people even in lockdown areas are struggling to get tests.