How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

[quote beingmums]@MarshaBradyo if you work in a school then you know that social distancing in schools is impossible. [/quote]
From other adults?

‘The letter calls on Glasgow schools to stress to staff to maintain a distance from other adults in the school.’

Yes even from other adults. You use the same facilities including bathrooms and the corridors are narrow.

I visited one of our schools last week and the number of teachers just seen in the middle of the classroom was a bit worrying.

Basically showering spit over about six desks!

We’re doubling every week at present. Where I am, cases started very low, about 5 in a week. A week later, we’re up to 15 in a week. These are individual cases, not a cluster, so we can assume community spread and that the figures are out by at least a factor of 2. Being conservative and basing it in a starting point of 40 actual cases right this second and doubling once a week, we have
40
80
160
320
640
1280
So over a thousand cases by half term. That’s about 1% of the population by that point, as a conservative estimate, starting from a low base.
Doing nothing is not going to be an option for long.

@beingmums

Yes even from other adults. You use the same facilities including bathrooms and the corridors are narrow.

That's the same for lots of workplaces though.

@beingmums

Yes even from other adults. You use the same facilities including bathrooms and the corridors are narrow.

Still worth reminding teachers not to congregate in closed spaces. Such as for inset training or meetings. Limit exposure between adults even if you pass in corridors (meant to be 15 mins for close contact though)

The best and safest place at my kids school to wait for them is the enormous school yard. They’ve closed it though so everyone has to hang around in a busy road in two areas like sheep pens, under the kosh of “window collection compliance”
Then they can’t go anywhere with the first child because the second one is being prepped for exist in the yard.

Yet the Council have the temerity to criticise parents who have no choice

@Nellodee agree doing nothing not an option for long.

And if this rule of six isnt enough, how long will it take for government to know that?

If rule of six could bring r rate down to 0.9 that'd be a really great outcome.

Could it be enough?

@Bol87

They won’t. We cannot destroy children’s education anymore for a virus that doesn’t much affect them.

Blended learning is all very nice for those with understanding employers who work from home. Millions don’t have that luxury & their children will lose out. And it’ll be poorer families who are most affected as they are more likely to do jobs that cannot be done from home. I’d say I’m fairly middle class and a reasonable earner. Not loads. But I’m not struggling. But I’m a key worker & I cannot home educate my child. I don’t have time. My employer expects me to work, they aren’t very family focused. Even in a pandemic. As soon as nurseries opened, I was expected to put my child back in & work properly. Luckily my DD is nursery aged at the mo & I don’t worry I’m failing her education but if she was primary, I’d be gutted.

Stop with this middle class, Mumsnet luxury of being able to blended learn. Most can’t. Unless they reintroduce Furlough or make it the law for employers to have to allow flexible working. Even then, many jobs can’t be flexible. And mine that was, I was working 24/7 basically. Looking after my kiddo, working when she was playing & catching up until 2am. It was soul destroying. Not sustainable long term.

100 x this. Parents were struggling so much before September and falling apart. The only thing keeping them going was schools opening again. I don’t know how a lot of people will cope with multiple closures all winter.

@Bol87
I also agree with what you have written
The impact on jobs, mental health and families and of course young people’s future will be catastrophic

Bol agree. Children have been put last for six months. Their education is now rightly a priority.

@Timeforanotherusername the assumption is that the children do not spread it, this is contradicted by the research. You do not have 500+ not socially distancing employees in many places. It is easy to blame teachers than agree that having no ventilations, no social distancing among pupils and no masks and PPE for adults is the cause of spreading infection.

Surely the point of the bubble system is to stop this happening. DD's school is divided into 24 class bubbles so even with 10 cases, over half the school would be left attending.

@BetterEatCheese unfortunately the bubbles differ in each school. Some schools have only year bubbles. There is no universal approach towards bubbles. Each schools make their own rules, which means one might be more successful than other.

[quote beingmums]@Timeforanotherusername the assumption is that the children do not spread it, this is contradicted by the research. You do not have 500+ not socially distancing employees in many places. It is easy to blame teachers than agree that having no ventilations, no social distancing among pupils and no masks and PPE for adults is the cause of spreading infection. [/quote]
Which research are you thinking of? Could you link

Israel school had a big outbreak but low spread between close contacts

I am not convinced either way as studies have been scarce and shown both sides. Which is why we should collate information after bubbles close re symptoms in the family.

being the article in the Herald suggests that teachers are spreading it to other teachers.

If that is indeed happening then it needs to be addressed.

And that does not mean that children don't spread it.

The research does seem to suggest that younger children do not spread it as much as adults.

@MarshaBradyo I am not a scientist and only can go about I read online. Alasdair Munro (Clinical Research Fellow) recently stated , This report on viral transmission is based on a (currently) very flawed study (unpublished but online) Children almost certainly DO transmit COVID-19'. mobile.twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1255876771796471808
I agree that current school situation and bubbles will deliver the answer to the question, but isn't that a risky strategy? Is it not better to implement the rules in schools that would reduce the spread all together? All in all we are all on the same page, we want the schools to keep open. I mean by this more fundings for schools to employ staff. Temporary tents to have more space and classrooms.

@Bol87

They won’t. We cannot destroy children’s education anymore for a virus that doesn’t much affect them.

Blended learning is all very nice for those with understanding employers who work from home. Millions don’t have that luxury & their children will lose out. And it’ll be poorer families who are most affected as they are more likely to do jobs that cannot be done from home. I’d say I’m fairly middle class and a reasonable earner. Not loads. But I’m not struggling. But I’m a key worker & I cannot home educate my child. I don’t have time. My employer expects me to work, they aren’t very family focused. Even in a pandemic. As soon as nurseries opened, I was expected to put my child back in & work properly. Luckily my DD is nursery aged at the mo & I don’t worry I’m failing her education but if she was primary, I’d be gutted.

Stop with this middle class, Mumsnet luxury of being able to blended learn. Most can’t. Unless they reintroduce Furlough or make it the law for employers to have to allow flexible working. Even then, many jobs can’t be flexible. And mine that was, I was working 24/7 basically. Looking after my kiddo, working when she was playing & catching up until 2am. It was soul destroying. Not sustainable long term.

Don't be under the illusion that WFH and homeschooling is at all doable, even for middle classes. It's a complete and utter nightmare.

Trying to focus on your own work while a child is trying to ask questions, doesn't understand what they are trying to do as their being taught by an amateur.

Then throw in the preschooler who's viving for attention and ace at disrupting the learning and working environment.

It really is year your hair out stuff.

@Timeforanotherusername

being the article in the Herald suggests that teachers are spreading it to other teachers.

If that is indeed happening then it needs to be addressed.

Alice Roberts on this:

"Ridiculous anyway when 50% of transmission estimated to be from presymptomatic/asymptomatic cases. If the pupils are not being tested - how we KNOW this is only adult to adult transmission?"

Being I’m finding that hard to decipher beyond his statement and then some reasons why statements to contrary are incorrect.

If we could do temporary spaces and did have extra staff that would be great. But I don’t think they are options that are possible. Where would we find all the extra teachers and space? I did actually suggest this yonks ago only here and got requoted a lot to say there is already a teacher retention issue.

What I find incredulous is that (as far as I’m aware) there aren’t any proper school surveillance studies under way in U.K. I guess because if they don’t look they won’t find.

It seems that staff/wider community will be used as canaries in the coal mine to eventually alert us to mild/asymptomatic spread amongst children which is currently flying under the radar because there aren’t any proper monitoring systems.

This is recent from States....

www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937e3.htm?s_cid=mm6937e3_w

Here Israel school found close contact transmission was low. I am not convinced either way as data is so sparse. But we should be collating days from Scottish schools already and now English schools on symptoms in families in bubbles. It’s crazy to me we close bubbles and carry on without understanding more about what is happening.

Oak heres one in Bristol

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-54116927