How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

Wolke blended learning may work for some but we would end up with many kids even more behind that they already are.

My DC Primary school did brilliantly during lockdown but they still missed out on so much.

I don't know the answer. Obv bubbles shutting down will cause disruption too.

Yes it would be better to have smaller class sizes and more space.

But its not going to happen.

We have an incompetent government (not really a surprise) so its not going to get any better.

I really would not want either of my DC to wear masks all day although I support teachers having PPE.

Completely agree with Wolke

@notevenat20 it is not ideal by all means, but with no PPE in schools and no masks in classrooms, the spread would be to high to keep going. Imagine a teacher is infected and everyone she had a contact with have to self isolate. Children are in the bubble, but the teacher might teach across a few bubbles. Then everyone that used the same bathroom has to self isolate. In the school I used to teach was one female toilet for all staff, which means all female teachers, TA and many more staff have to isolate. The tests are not available and you wait days for results. The list goes on.

@timeforanotherusername totally agree blended learning won't work for everyone but full time schooling for all is not going to work either, there'll be too few staff to teach effectively and parents are going to start pulling their kids out because they think they will be safer and suffer less disruption at home. With 200 kids in a year group, secondaries there will be so many periods of isolation that parents will realise blended learning is the only way forward. There are no good choices. At the moment we need to try and avoid a total shutdown of schools and that means reducing the number of children in school at any one time and enforcing the use of visors for staff and at very least masks in the corridors and at break time. We can't just hope quarantining a few glue sticks is going to be enough to stop the spread.

I think we need to stop it being called “blended learning” and call it what it will be which is part time school. If they have to implement it fair enough but let’s be honest about what it is. We had our school’s plans, which were better than most. But there wouldn’t be anything offered on their non school days, it was just homework, as obviously the teacher will be teaching the other half of the school!

[quote beingmums]@notevenat20 it is not ideal by all means, but with no PPE in schools and no masks in classrooms, the spread would be to high to keep going. Imagine a teacher is infected and everyone she had a contact with have to self isolate. Children are in the bubble, but the teacher might teach across a few bubbles. Then everyone that used the same bathroom has to self isolate. In the school I used to teach was one female toilet for all staff, which means all female teachers, TA and many more staff have to isolate. The tests are not available and you wait days for results. The list goes on. [/quote]
You don’t have to isolate just because you share a bathroom with someone

Schools won't close. Well, primary schools won't. Seems they are safer than secondaries

I passed two primaries on Friday afternoon around hometime. So many parents waiting outside, chatting, not socially distancing. They didn't seem to be allowed in the school grounds so congregated en masse along the narrow pavement. Not many wearing masks.

Near the other school, the bus stop was packed with parents and their children waiting for the bus. I'm sure many drive/ walk home but as it was Friday, they were probably going shopping/ somewhere other than home.
I think that whilst primary schools are probably safer than secondaries during the school day, it's what happens before and after school that could be the issue.

Here there are many more primaries with cases than secondaries. Obviously there are more primary schools though. I don’t know why so many people think keeping primary open is the priority when secondary education is clearly more critical (Other than childcare). Half of a secondary school in Scotland is exam years.

MadameBlobby I've wondered the same. Each child in an exam year in secondary school was affected when their school closed as they couldn't sit their exams. Not every child in a primary year group was negatively affected by their school closing. Many still learnt and had worthwhile experiences at home.

I've not read to the end so this may have been said, but the govt published a doc on how local lockdowns would be managed and as part of this it includes a tier based system for managing schools and childcare depending on what the outbreak level is www.gov.uk/government/publications/containing-and-managing-local-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreaks/covid-19-contain-framework-a-guide-for-local-decision-makers#annex-3-tiers-of-national-restriction.

No I don't think there is an intention for blanket closure across the country again. I think that regardless of what happens our govt have no intention of shutting this country down again and that everything will be dealt with locally.

I think we need to stop it being called “blended learning” and call it what it will be which is part time school.

This is very true. It might be blended learning for a lucky few who have the right home environments and support from parent guardians/teachers. For many the time at home could never realistically be learning time.

I see covid is in care homes again. I care deeply about my children's education, but I do think we need to take a step back and think if mass transmission in school is a price worth paying for full time as usual school.

Call it blended learning or part time school, all I know is I don't feel great sending them in now, as it is just a waiting game before a year group shuts.

MadameBlobby people prioritise primaries because young children can't be left alone if schools close and parents still have to go to work. I completely agree though that education for students with impending exams is the most pressing matter.

@MadameBlobby The person, working as a tracker, stated that the bathroom share is one of the criteria they use to establish close contact.

@Inkpaperstars

I think we need to stop it being called “blended learning” and call it what it will be which is part time school.

This is very true. It might be blended learning for a lucky few who have the right home environments and support from parent guardians/teachers. For many the time at home could never realistically be learning time.

‘Blended learning‘ suggests the school will be accessible in those hours. Since it won’t be part time school will impact on dc especially exam years.

Scotland has been back for weeks? How has it progressed?

Could only find FT article FT concerns dissipate

Didn’t mean the first ?

@MadameBlobby bathroom sharing is considered close contact, thats why all out bubbles have their own toilets.

Instead of debating whether or not schools will close nationally again, why are people not asking very loudly why our schools are not being given any extra funding to support them putting measures in place to keep them open? The government has spent millions getting people back into bars and restaurants over the summer but according to my head teacher, not one penny has been received to help our schools in the fight against covid. The PPE provided by my employer consists of a pack of anti bacterial wipes to clean the computer as I travel from classroom to classroom which are jam packed full of teenagers - no smaller class sizes which would be one thing that could help as there's no money to pay for it. Up to 150 households I am encountering every day with one pack of wipes for protection. It's an absolute disgrace. I don't want schools to close but if my place is anything to go by, I don't know how teachers and students can keep themselves safe in the conditions they are having to work in. Years and years of under funding means a lot of our school buildings aren't fit for purpose, there's no way to manage any kind of social distancing. I feel so sorry for the kids packed into such small spaces after months of keeping apart to try to keep safe.

If there's no one to teach the kids because the teachers have caught the virus, they'll have to be home schooled! But hey, as long as the bars and restaurants are busy...

BBC growing cases in Scottish schools - this is apparently not to be updates after Sept 4th

Coronavirus: 'Extraordinary' number of Glasgow teachers test positive in past week

FT article behind paywall, so I can't read how concerns have dissipated

Is it? Weird I could read it I don’t think I’ve subscribed to FT

But Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said the public should not be “unduly concerned”.

In the week to August 23, just under 17,500 people aged two to 17 were tested in Scotland, but only 49 were found to have the virus, only two more than the previous week, Ms Sturgeon told a coronavirus briefing on Thursday.

“Despite an increase of more than 300 per cent in the number of young people that were tested from one week to the next . . . the number of positive cases recorded increased by just two. Not two per cent,” the first minister said. “I hope [that] is reassuring to parents and teachers across the country.”

Actually it’s a bit old.

God that article listing numbers. We need a table showing by week or chart.

I agree with other article though

A Glasgow City Council spokeswoman said: “This was a reminder to schools about the importance of physical distancing amongst adults in line with the national guidance.

@MarshaBradyo if you work in a school then you know that social distancing in schools is impossible.