How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

[quote Oaktree55]What I find incredulous is that (as far as I’m aware) there aren’t any proper school surveillance studies under way in U.K. I guess because if they don’t look they won’t find.

It seems that staff/wider community will be used as canaries in the coal mine to eventually alert us to mild/asymptomatic spread amongst children which is currently flying under the radar because there aren’t any proper monitoring systems.

This is recent from States....

www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937e3.htm?s_cid=mm6937e3_w[/quote]
I agree. It’s a bloody disgrace that the only place making data available on school closures is a Twitter feed called Tory fibs. Given the amount of public interest in this. Why isn’t it being monitored and reported somewhere more mainstream?

@MarshaBradyo we have two options stay as we are and the schools close for most pupils or in the best case scenario go as blended teaching (I agree this is part-time), or there are some changes implemented soon. The money going to eat out to help out could actually support schools.

@RepeatSwan

Part time schooling is a disaster for women who will have to sacrifice their careers again.

I know this is true, but I don't know that we can carry on with full time school, if shown to be a transmission problem, for this reason.

Part time schooling doesn't work for teachers who are also parents.

[quote beingmums]@MarshaBradyo we have two options stay as we are and the schools close for most pupils or in the best case scenario go as blended teaching (I agree this is part-time), or there are some changes implemented soon. The money going to eat out to help out could actually support schools. [/quote]
I am not pro part time.

I am not convinced it will stop closures. Community cases will still enter schools. So we need to know more about spread. We should have the family data.

Part time disadvantages state school immensely to private and after A level fiasco we should not sleep walk into this again. We won’t be able to simply adjust as we did for that.

Exam years in particular should be full time. Not sure other years are ok with helping prioritise this.

If you want maximum part time hours for all you have to remove KW etc provision.

If sharing a bathroom is an issue, either for spreading or determining which contacts should isolate, then that will be a big problem for staff in many schools.

We have all staff meetings online, separate staff areas for each bubble, one way systems and an absolute minimum of face to face contact with other bubbles.

We also have just one set of staff toilets. Only one person allowed in at a time, but as we’re all supervising lunchtimes as well there’s about a 20 minute slot where everyone has their only chance to go.

I guess if we all have to isolate due to sharing toilets that will be presented as our fault for not being careful enough. The media will blame lazy teachers for not spending their long holidays training their bladders to expand to the size of a beach ball. 😁

@Timeforanotherusername thanks hadn’t read that.

@MarshaBradyo for that we need more tests and test also asymptomatic cases in schools. The current testing capability doesn't allow it. Yesterday, it was mentioned that some centres reduced the capability rather than increased it.

Being we can start with monitoring symptoms in the family when a bubble closes. At least collate the data. We are still fairly blind when it comes to spread in schools.

And yes of course everyone would welcome mass testing. But it’s not instant

Someone told me (so hearsay!) that the Zoe app can be signed up to by schools, I was intending to look into this.

The area I live in has been labelled an area of concern, infection rates are nearly 4000 per 10,000 people a day, up to now 10 schools have had to send year bubbles home to isolate. These numbers are nearly the same as they were during May when we were in full lockdown, this is when schools have just returned, I'm fully expecting that by November schools will be closed again & we will be back in full lockdown.

@Nat6999

The area I live in has been labelled an area of concern, infection rates are nearly 4000 per 10,000 people a day, up to now 10 schools have had to send year bubbles home to isolate. These numbers are nearly the same as they were during May when we were in full lockdown, this is when schools have just returned, I'm fully expecting that by November schools will be closed again & we will be back in full lockdown.

Please could you double check your numbers as what you type is 40%!

@MadameBlobby

Here there are many more primaries with cases than secondaries. Obviously there are more primary schools though. I don’t know why so many people think keeping primary open is the priority when secondary education is clearly more critical (Other than childcare). Half of a secondary school in Scotland is exam years.

It's probably easier to teach secondary kids who already have competent reading skills online than it is to teach primary kids who can't read.

Secondary kids should be capable of independent learning. Primary kids need constant support. Which for many won't happen, parents working in or out the house, younger siblings distracting etc.

I seem to be hearing lots of people testing ....but no positive tests?
Negatives only & worryingly taking at least 3/4 days to confirm a negative test. The turn around should be a lot faster. .otherwise we constantly in a state of panic. Someone getting a cold causing mayhem, parents panicking it’s Covid getting their child tested (without symptoms in some cases but only because a child at school is isolating) this causes a reduction in available tests and increases time to get results.

@Changeagain1

I seem to be hearing lots of people testing ....but no positive tests? Negatives only & worryingly taking at least 3/4 days to confirm a negative test. The turn around should be a lot faster. .otherwise we constantly in a state of panic. Someone getting a cold causing mayhem, parents panicking it’s Covid getting their child tested (without symptoms in some cases but only because a child at school is isolating) this causes a reduction in available tests and increases time to get results.

That’s because the vast majority of people who test don’t have it.

Sorry 4000 per 100,000

There is 706 schools affected now.

39 in Wales
68 in Northern Ireland
111 in Scotland
488 in England

Obviously Scotland has been back the longest which shows the difference between community levels in each nation.

@MarshaBradyo

Being we can start with monitoring symptoms in the family when a bubble closes. At least collate the data. We are still fairly blind when it comes to spread in schools.

The problem is that the bubble doesn't end there. The children meet friends and family members. They have siblings in different bubbles. You can create bubbles in the school but children walk to the school with their friends from the different bubbles. In addition, many are asymptomatic and it would not deliver on the question if the asymptomatic children cause the further spread of the virus. I argue that in the current school situation and without introducing further measures, the schools will not last long.

Track and trace is abysmal. My friendship group are still waiting to be told that 2 have CV. It's been about 3 weeks now I think.

For those asking if the UK are monitoring schools here's the info for PHE’s school serosurveillance study (sKIDs)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/904207/sKIDS_protocol_v1.4.pdf

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/914700/sKIDs_Phase1Report_01sep2020.pdf

Two local schools had cases this week. They’ve not closed, they’ve isolated kids which have been in contact with the infected instead.

I agree. It’s a bloody disgrace that the only place making data available on school closures is a Twitter feed called Tory fibs. Given the amount of public interest in this. Why isn’t it being monitored and reported somewhere more mainstream

Agree. Each day they should have to announce case numbers, hospital admissions, icu numbers and school numbers. There seems to be little about schools at all unless you go and look for independent data.

The problem is that the bubble doesn't end there. The children meet friends and family members. They have siblings in different bubbles.

The child isolating won’t meet friends but I agree if they show symptoms it could be incorrectly attributed to school close contact rather than family bringing it in.

There is very little data on spread in schools. Israel school had low spread between close contacts. It could be the case that taking out the positive case from the school is enough. But we do not gave the information (and admittedly no one will want to take the risk).

Do not have

www.heraldscotland.com/news/18716555.coronavirus-extraordinary-number-glasgow-teachers-test-positive-past-week/

Fails to realise that it's not just about staff having meetings, but also things like their lunch breaks. To prevent lots of movement many pupils are staying in the classrooms all day, thus these rooms are no longer available to staff so have no choice but to all be in the staff room. Before CV empty classrooms were used by staff at lunch.

Not all have the ability to hold online meetings, a lot of class pc's don't have webcams, and not all staff have mobile phones or smartphones.

Due to a surge in cases Israel, the West Bank and Gaza are going into a national lockdown, including all schools, from Friday 18th and to last three weeks. They are perhaps the most comparable to the UK with regards to class sizes.