How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

[quote Oaktree55]@MarshaBradyo your point about there being disparity across the class with homeschooling. This will happen anyway, as numbers rise some parents will remove kids, children off isolating. I think most teachers will be spending a lot of time helping those behind so even if a child has 100% attendance this year the teaching won’t be as it normally is. There’s too much disruption for many reasons.[/quote]
Yes some will isolate but if it’s more than two the whole class likely will. So all at same stage. Hopefully with provision over that two weeks.

Children homeschooling at will, will undoubtedly make it harder.

I think you are doing this? I don’t think your dc will lag, but it may not be the case for all.

@MarshaBradyo you’re forgetting those who must isolate as a result of a family member etc for 2 weeks and to give an example which is already happening at our school, symptoms, no tests available for 48 plus then 48 hours plus for results. In an ideal world yes there’s quick turnarounds etc but unfortunately our testing system for many isn’t working as it needs to. There is no easy answer. It’s a mess.

Oaktree It is a mess. But I wouldn’t want to add another layer of mess ;

Does your school provide work in that situation?

I think by mid October

@MarshaBradyo. I haven’t asked I’ve made my own way with work. It’s not on line yet but apparently work will be put on line as they’re expecting a lot of disruption. It was my decision not to attend so wouldn’t expect staff to go to extra bother. I sent in a summary of what I’ve covered out of courtesy to show they won’t fall behind which elicited a supportive reply. I must admit being mid 40’s I was taught in the old school way which may not be how teaching is done today but if nothing else it “sticks” and won’t harm them temporarily.

Oaktree I’m sure you’ll do a grand job. I ended up using a different year online for yr5 dc as it was a better match, not sure how that’ll fit in but he had to be challenged a bit to be happy (also checked he could do the other stuff).

I think if you care as you do, they’ll be a-ok.

[quote StatisticalSense]@Kaktus
Basically yes.
The government have basically told the generation at the start of their careers to put their lives on hold, while destroying their career prospects and lumping them with trillions of debt which will lead to them paying higher taxes in the future. Meanwhile those with children believe they should be exempt from the rule of 6, while being able to keep their children in school and if that becomes impossible they are now expecting to be paid to look after their own children. If anything it would make more sense to ban school aged children and their parents from leaving the house for any purpose other than school, work, medical appointments or buying groceries, while allowing the childless to visit pubs and the like in order to keep the virus out of schools.[/quote]
I agree that people need to be sensible if we want to keep children back in school and not jump from household to household socialising. However, as a young, childless teacher, I will still be going to the pub and socialising with my family and friends.

And I don't mean that I will run around hugging them or getting close to them, but just to show that the virus could still get into school through parents, children or staff.

My DH is a mathematician. He can do the maths!

Reading this thread has made me think about a few things that I wouldn’t have usually crossed my mind. I’m very much of the belief that the best place for the children are at the education establishment however that could be because I’m not equipped to home school my DC, she is 15 so this is exam year Nat 5s and I genuinely believe that being in school is the best place for her to excel, learn and be a ‘normal’ 15 year old,

I am under no illusion that C19 has been devastating to us all, both my parents were hospitalised with it in March, thankfully recovered. So really it should be an individual choice if parents feel that the risk is too much then let them homeschool without penalties and let the rest of us get on with it 🤷🏼‍♀️

Sorry for another long post... but I am extremely interested on how old your children are who are participating in this chat

12 and 8. The 8 year old is still at school. The 12 year old has been in to school and had a few days off (the inevitable going back to school cold and another medical issue and is also very worried about lack of social distancing having been shielding and about me catching it).

12 year old currently wants to try going in again on Monday, which is fine if that's what they want to do.

I'm very grateful that neither are doing exams or a transition year and, while we are high risk, there are currently not many cases in the area.

Cumulative risk over the whole winter however, is going to be a challenge. I am hoping there will be more of a shift in the weeks ahead.

@herecomesthsun

Thank you, this has made me look at my situation again and that myself or DD do not have health issues or shielding so maybe a lot of comments on here are reflective on these circumstances.

Schools open five weeks here
No schools closed
No cases in schools
Small cluster linked to pubs and 'gatherings'
Children and young peoples education needs prioritised .
Think the schools will stay open regardless
Vast majority of NHS frontline staff are parents - close schools-they can't use grandparents due to household limits /extended shielding = no staff for hospitals .
That is not going to be happening .
Schools won't close but the hospitality industry might and end up being the collateral damage.

I hope the government will come to senses and review the school's situation and create smaller bubbles and part time schooling so they can be open check on children and their wellbeing and at the same time reduce the spread of the virus. Schools as we see them now will not last long.

@MarshaBradyo ah thanks. Just doing what suits us and feels like our bit to help in a crazy situation our Government has put us all in.

If we assume that the UK is following France a month behind, then not for at least a month. The French haven't closed their schools yet despite having a lot of cases. It will be interesting to see what happens there in the next couple of weeks.

I hope the government will come to senses and review the school's situation and create smaller bubbles and part time schooling so they can be open check on children and their wellbeing and at the same time reduce the spread of the virus. Schools as we see them now will not last long.

Part time schooling is a disaster for women who will have to sacrifice their careers again.

Part time schooling is a disaster for women who will have to sacrifice their careers again.

I know this is true, but I don't know that we can carry on with full time school, if shown to be a transmission problem, for this reason.

What I mean is, we must be able to help safeguard women's careers somehow.

As parents its our responsibility that our children get the best chances in life.

That is not part time school and inferior learning.

So we should be doing everything in our power to stop the spread of the virus outside of schools. Less spread in community means less cases taken into schools.

Why aren't we?

@Timeforanotherusername

As parents its our responsibility that our children get the best chances in life.

That is not part time school and inferior learning.

So we should be doing everything in our power to stop the spread of the virus outside of schools. Less spread in community means less cases taken into schools.

Why aren't we?

I'm not in control of what other people do, I am doing all I can.

It's also my responsibility to keep myself well to provide for my children - school puts this at risk.

But I am doing everything I can.

@Timeforanotherusername

As parents its our responsibility that our children get the best chances in life.

That is not part time school and inferior learning.

So we should be doing everything in our power to stop the spread of the virus outside of schools. Less spread in community means less cases taken into schools.

Why aren't we?

By 'we' do you mean parents?

I'd welcome a move to blended learning. It's not ideal but people are going to realise it's an awful lot better than bubbles being sent home with no notice. We don't have good options available to us - it's simply a case of choosing from a range of different poisons. Whatever waffle the government has given about closing pubs first is absolute twaddle; they don't have any more money in the pot. Schools will go to part time hours before the pubs close. The government will try and wheedle their way out of it by saying that the schools aren't really closed.

Parents will start voting with their feet when faced with restrictive periods of lockdown, they'll simply pull their children out. Without clear leadership we are going to end up in a kind of hell whereby some children are isolating, some are homeschooling (officially or otherwise) and some are in school going over things they've done 100x before because the teacher is off sick and the supply has no idea where anyone is at.

It's also going to interesting how many teachers simply take themselves down to the doctors and ask to be signed off with stress. The autumn term is always difficult but this year the burden is so much greater and many will feel like they can't go on. There will be those who don't seek help too ...

The reason schools in Europe aren't closing is that they have more PPE, bigger classrooms, smaller classes etc. In Spain teachers are returning in with masks and visors and all the kids over the age of 6 will wear masks all day. Miserable, but at least they are attempting to control the risks - we've just sprinkled schools with pixie dust and keep repeating if they wash their hands it will all be okay. To be honest the only hand washing I can see going on is the government who are desperately trying to point the finger of blame as far away as possible.

I hate to be so pessimistic but I think people need to see this is where we are heading if the government don't step up and take the lead.

@Wolke

So true with Europe schools in a much better position than us.

5if we get to half term.i will be pleasantly surprised.

At the end of the day it is having a massive effect on children's education and mental health. But worrying about it all from any angle is pointless. Us plebs dont make the rules.

Better to be realistic and have low expectations and prepared for any eventuality