How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@MarshaBradyo

Honestly thank god for Whitty’s sense overriding all this emotion.

I think whitty is giving political answers.

Of course it is lower risk for vulnerable children to be in school, because for that group the risks from covid are lower than the risks from chaotic home life, lack of supervision, violence, criminality etc.

That is not at all the same as Whitty saying 'full time school is lower risk for all pupils than part time school with distancing'. Full time school is, imo, higher risk for my own children due to greater risk of disruption to education.

I don't think for one second the government care about educational impact on the majority of children.

Full time school is, imo, higher risk for my own children due to greater risk of disruption to education.

I don’t agree in Whitty. But I do think the government ignored the obvious issues with last term provision, and focused on being happy that 1m were in school. Tg that Whitty changed that message to no it’s not good enough. All children are better in than out.

I got zero school for yr5 student last term so he’s on the up already.

Can you work out the numbers for part time including KW / v dc. By the time you provide ft cc for this group you’ll get less than half. Maybe 1 day a week. And you’ll still get closed if a positive case comes in.

Schools do have an issue but there’s better ways to address it as part time is problematic.

As for the 25% cap on my yr10 that was ridiculous. So much learning time squandered.

Can we STOP with this talk of “destroyed educations” , you do know your kids can hear you , and - one way or another - you’re adding to that?

“How so?” I hear in wails of outrage ...well, education is lifelong. Stop giving kids the impression they’re done for for good if they’ve not achieved this goal by that age. Apart from making some even more anxious , some will just give up.

There’s are far more injurious things happening to our kids’ futures than losing school hours , on a societal level. While schools play their part in ameliorating this , they should not have to.
Opining about some kids missing hot meals? - well you know what box to tick next election. Don’t , and you’r concerns are as ironic as all Tory types who give to charities that should not have to exist.

Yes I got political because it IS political, everything that effects is all is , by its very nature.

Oh and whoever said “doesn’t effect them much” . No. It effects their teachers and their loved ones. The psychological impact of losing parents - or loved ones - or simply witnessing others suffer that, is lifelong.

And don’t class bait. It’s cheap. I’m poor , I can’t homeschool. It’s difficult to find work that’s both Covid safe and not shifts , as I’m a single parent with lung damage. I’m also “no recourse to public funds” as I have a tiny pension.

But I support every parent doing whatever they can right now, I just wish I had similar resources.

You know what to do. Give another person - one with hopefully more integrity- the £150k salary Cummings’s puppet finds so onerous to cope on. As soon as you can.

Can we STOP with this talk of “destroyed educations”

Trying telling that to the children that are sitting their GCSES's and A levels in a few months time after six months off school already, and are trying to remain focused in the middle of a pandemic and media hysteria around them. I am sure they would beg to differ!!

Their results will make or break their future chances for sure, so a destroyed education is probably a mild term for how they are feeling right now.

Their results will make or break their future chances for sure, so a destroyed education is probably a mild term for how they are feeling right now.

I agree with the poster above, this talk is too much, too dramatic. I have a child in the group you describe (exams), I do think it's going to be a hard year - but I do not believe any adversity or suboptimal outcome has to 'make or break their future'.

My family cares for some incredibly disadvantaged people, it has taught me there is always something we can do. My children will hopefully be ok, and if they are not ok, I will help them do whatever it takes to get to ok.

Try not to overblow this to your children. Disappointing, sad, scary, frustrating, worrying - yes. Ruined lives, destroyed futures? Not necessarily.

My Ds is very much more laid back than me. Just had a chat about mocks and subjects due to another thread. There’s no way I’m piling on the doom for them. He is good at doing his own work so I barely have to say much about it, just general interest.

But right now both are happy and in school. And I’ll cross the bridge of staying home if they get a positive case. Online provision should be as good as it was in secondary during last term and motivation is easier for shorter period. It was the long term on screen learning that was harder.

And as much as I express what I think about pt on here they don’t know or hear it.

We’re mostly just going things normally and I’m appreciating it.

@RepeatSwan I know personally a person who failed the GCSE first time and he managed to pass them later. He is very successful. It is a difficult year for all, but let's try to encourage our children to do the best they can in this difficult times.

I think the nearer the child is to the end of their education, the bigger impact the pandemic and/or lockdowns will have on them.
The younger the child, the more time there is to catch up before leaving school. Hence if your DC is older they have less time to catch up.

And the older the child, the most important and life-affecting the qualifications they are taking. So A levels will directly affect the university you get into and the course you can take and therefore directly affect the job you can get and the career you have. Of course you can take a few years extra and retrain, but that is not an option for many. The best time to take a qualification is at the normal age with all the support systems in place.

And you can't even say that all the older pupils are in the same boat, since smaller private schools won't be affected as much by whole year group bubbles being sent home and universities could fill places with students from abroad whose education had not been so disrupted.

Children every year mess up in exams and don't get to do what they wanted, sometimes for reasons beyond their control (illness, bereavement, family issues). This does not and should not destroy their future, sometimes it might take them longer to get where they wanted, sometimes they might have to change plan. But it is not helpful for anyone to say that their life is defined by exams, even under normal circumstances that is immense pressure.

As it stands, everyone is in a similar boat in one way, we are all in the middle of a pandemic - this is stressful and means we don't know what is going to happen next. Some people (including children) will cope with this better than others. Some will be luckier than others and not have to isolate. However even if for a particular child they have a terrible year and things don't turn out as they would wish, there are always options. It is not a destroyed education.

When you minimise the importance of education you make it acceptable for the goverment to treat the kids where they are.

They do not deserve this. They deserve it less than anyone.

Of course a parent is going to hopefully support their children through this, but let's not kid ourselves that this is not a disaster for this generation.

Time I agree. Obviously I’m not going to load dc up with more stress, how would that help.

But it’s not ok to dismiss their education and importance of school. And I’m with anyone on here who thinks it’s important.

@Timeforanotherusername

When you minimise the importance of education you make it acceptable for the goverment to treat the kids where they are.

They do not deserve this. They deserve it less than anyone.

Of course a parent is going to hopefully support their children through this, but let's not kid ourselves that this is not a disaster for this generation.

Totally agree.

If all this had happened to me as a student in late high school I’d have been absolutely crushed and broken. OK me with 30 years more life experience now knows it wouldn’t have been the end of the world but I have learned that myself. Not had a bunch of patronising old people tell me I had to suck it up.

The middle aged and older have treated the young terribly. It’s an absolute disgrace. I’m ashamed.

If we had a decent government, they would use this opportunity to bring it more opportunities for people to continue their education into adulthood. I understand that we cannot simply extend children's time at school by a year, but surely, any money invested in assisting students to extend their education voluntarily would be paid back by their economic input in later years? Any good government with its people's interests at heart would already be coming up with plans to enable students who have been disadvantaged to take valid alternative paths to their desired goals.

I do think the Government has failed children massively. They've ignored all the scientific advice on safe school reopening completely and utterly - so many other countries are doing so much more.

As a result children's education will be disrupted, already is being disrupted. To be honest, it's been worse for my DD1 this past week - isolating because her sister had a fever - than lockdown. The uncertainty, no schoolwork, the stress of thinking it could happen again at any time and that tests are so hard to get.

As I've said repeatedly, my DD1s primary managed the whole school back in small class sizes, SD in summer (with extra money and extra TAs). Not only did none of the kids get ill over 4 weeks, the whole experience was better than school normally is, and my DD1 loved it and misses it enormously. I'm angry that this sort of schooling was given to her for such a short time (I don't blame the school, they've always done the best they can with the money they have). I'm angry that this government gets away with giving so little to children who aren't rich. We should demand more (I regularly write to my MP and would urge others to do likewise).

I'm angry too. Both my children in GCSE years. This is not a drill.
I've written to my Conservative MP, but I feel like I'm shouting into the void.
They've abandoned education and I don't know how this will be repaired.

My one son is back home after just 7 days in school, due to a positive case, spending hours on screen again.
His twin's school also has several cases and is on the brink.

I too remained fairly philisophical when were both back in school, but then my healthy child waa sent home. Some lessons never materialised, yet two thirds of the year in school had those lessons.

@Timeforanotherusername

When you minimise the importance of education you make it acceptable for the goverment to treat the kids where they are.

They do not deserve this. They deserve it less than anyone.

Of course a parent is going to hopefully support their children through this, but let's not kid ourselves that this is not a disaster for this generation.

I do not minimise the importance of education, but not will it help children's mental health to catastrophise this disruption.

I would want my children to get to where they are hoping to get - but I don't believe my children's lives are 'ruined' if they have to resit.

What I see, honestly, on these threads are lots of people whose children were going to do fairly well. I've told mine to do their best, and that we'll assess and address any fall out when we get down the road.

A bad situation can be dealt with if you have a secure home and caring family. So of course I worry for young people who don't have that. But I doubt there's anyone on this thread who doesn't care about their children's education. A secure home may be a different matter, of course.

Repeat my kids will be fine educationally because 1/ they are young enough 2/ they have got DH and I.

The social aspects of missing school- well I only hope that doesn't impact them too much. DS has missed over half this time at school so far

But a large number of their classmates will probably not fare as well.

They may be young, but will they ever reach their full potential?

The school has worked so well over the last few years and really started to make a difference.

What damage has been done?

That is also why I get annoyed when people are essentially dismissing the importance of primary school here as secondary is more important

I get how important high school is, of course it is.

But here we have young children, many who are vulnerable, and they are not getting the chance to learn the basics.

We have a wonderful school and the provision we will get for learning from home will be excellent. But will the kids who really need it most engage from home?

When school staff go and pick up kids to bring them into school it gives them a chance. This isn't.

I don’t blame anyone for caring about ft education for dc and schools even if they have a very good home life.

It’s more apparent on exam year threads. I find it easier to talk with others who get it rather than having to say it’s not a home life thing.

@IloveJKRowling

I do think the Government has failed children massively. They've ignored all the scientific advice on safe school reopening completely and utterly - so many other countries are doing so much more.

As a result children's education will be disrupted, already is being disrupted. To be honest, it's been worse for my DD1 this past week - isolating because her sister had a fever - than lockdown. The uncertainty, no schoolwork, the stress of thinking it could happen again at any time and that tests are so hard to get.

As I've said repeatedly, my DD1s primary managed the whole school back in small class sizes, SD in summer (with extra money and extra TAs). Not only did none of the kids get ill over 4 weeks, the whole experience was better than school normally is, and my DD1 loved it and misses it enormously. I'm angry that this sort of schooling was given to her for such a short time (I don't blame the school, they've always done the best they can with the money they have). I'm angry that this government gets away with giving so little to children who aren't rich. We should demand more (I regularly write to my MP and would urge others to do likewise).

Wow what they managed in the summer sounds amazing. We’re they a pilot school or did they just manage to be really creative with resources?

Marsha dismissing the concerns, completely valid ones, to fit their agenda is poor form.

Time if people start trying to shoe horn oh it must be your home life I’m not hanging around to engage with them. By all measures education is as important at home here and I still want them in school and see the impact if not.

On the plus side everyone talking on R4 from scientist to politician reiterates importance of schools and education.