How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

Repeat ah I see. Do you know the split? I did think antibody testing was low.

@cantkeepawayforever nhs labs struggling, we’re not doing routine testing on staff at the moment, ideally we should, and yes offer to teachers/care staff too.

@middleager

Itis I agree that secondaries need to be prioritised. I have two year 10s, one at home already because of a case in primary schools.

Education cannot be caught up on for these GCSE years and I was gobsmacked by how primaries seem to be prioritised over secondaries, by the Govt and so many posters.
And I understand that is about working parents with primary aged children, but I'm talking about education. GCSE years that we can't get back. Lessons that are beyond my (a working parent too) level of education. This should be the urgency. The year 11s are already heafing towards another results fiasco.

Agree.

Thanks pomegranate, I thought that might be the case.

So no end in sight for the testing issue that will close schools...

@Pomegranatepompom

So really we all need to be shouting about the utterly crap test system. Teachers want to teach and parents want DC in school, we need to be proactive, the government certainly won’t be.

Exactly this.

A functional TTI system gives us all what we want.

Just a reminder of the figures with regards to part time / full time. With reduced numbers the total outbreaks in schools from March 23rd to the various dates for end of summer term were 197. For the start of autumn term (again various starting back dates) to date is currently 1305.

Disclaimer: These are just the figures, I am sure there’s countless reasons why they are what they are other than reduced numbers vs the current 88% attendance.

Oh, should have split the figures for March 23rd to end of May was 3 outbreaks. Attendance was very low but was during the peak of infections and deaths.

It is also worth thinking about how many tests are going to be needed to do testing 'properly'.

On another thread, I did a 'back of the fag packet;' estimation that worked out that once you take away tests reserved for care homes, testing of NHS staff, the ONS survey etc etc, then there are about 50,000 tests per day (of pcr,. not antibody ones) for all other purposes.

Then think about how many we need. The WHO states that a 3% positivity rate is the absolute maximum for a country that has any kind of control over the virus (over this, it is out of control). So for a daily positive test number of 4,200 (say), and a positivity rate of 3%, you need (4200/3)*100 = 140,000 tests daily. However, as cases are currently doubling every week at best, next week you will need 280,000 tests. the following week, 560,000 tests.

Of course, as the doubling means the virus is out of control, we will in fact have positivity rates well outside the WHO guidance, but even at 10% positivity, we need 42,000 this week, 84,000 next week, 168,000 the following week.

That is why we are not going to recover from the current testing issues. The combination of increased demand alongside exponential growth will mean that tests will not be available to get teachers back in front of classes fast enough for schools to stay open.

If we want to talk figure re part time school

• in June our school was offering 50 percent education to three year group - there maximum capacity if they were to operate social distanced schooling. The school usually provides 100 percent education to seven year groups so it was offering only about 20 percent of its previous education provision and only just over 40 percent of pupils got anything

School in June stayed open more for the pupils they were open for but overall Over half of the pupils at our primary got no education march to July so knowing the school was open for those allowed to go was little consultation!

This is the problem with socially distanced schooling it means as a society to keep school open for a few we have to deny education completely to quite a lot and the decision on who gets the limited education we provide will always be controversial (and it was in June prioritising the year groups that were was not 100 percent supported by teachers never mind parents!). For those denied anything it’s hard to get them behind the idea this was a great idea and even if it shuts tomorrow my son will have had two weeks more education under this system than if we had kept with the June plan...so we are “up” even with the possibility of increased school closure.

@Qasd

If we want to talk figure re part time school

• in June our school was offering 50 percent education to three year group - there maximum capacity if they were to operate social distanced schooling. The school usually provides 100 percent education to seven year groups so it was offering only about 20 percent of its previous education provision and only just over 40 percent of pupils got anything

School in June stayed open more for the pupils they were open for but overall Over half of the pupils at our primary got no education march to July so knowing the school was open for those allowed to go was little consultation!

This is the problem with socially distanced schooling it means as a society to keep school open for a few we have to deny education completely to quite a lot and the decision on who gets the limited education we provide will always be controversial (and it was in June prioritising the year groups that were was not 100 percent supported by teachers never mind parents!). For those denied anything it’s hard to get them behind the idea this was a great idea and even if it shuts tomorrow my son will have had two weeks more education under this system than if we had kept with the June plan...so we are “up” even with the possibility of increased school closure.

Exactly. Well put

They didnt test kids till jun i think.
Where has the 1400 come from?
Last week has around 120 incidents of 2+ on the covid data. (Though obviously about 1000 cases since august reopening Scotland then england.)

@MarshaBradyo

Repeat ah I see. Do you know the split? I did think antibody testing was low.

Not sure. Pillar 1 is NHS, pillar 2 is community, pillar 3 is antibodies, pillar 4 is the ONS random testing.

Only pillar 1 and 2 should be counted I think, when comparing our test and trace with other countries.

@cantkeepawayforever

It is also worth thinking about how many tests are going to be needed to do testing 'properly'.

On another thread, I did a 'back of the fag packet;' estimation that worked out that once you take away tests reserved for care homes, testing of NHS staff, the ONS survey etc etc, then there are about 50,000 tests per day (of pcr,. not antibody ones) for all other purposes.

Then think about how many we need. The WHO states that a 3% positivity rate is the absolute maximum for a country that has any kind of control over the virus (over this, it is out of control). So for a daily positive test number of 4,200 (say), and a positivity rate of 3%, you need (4200/3)*100 = 140,000 tests daily. However, as cases are currently doubling every week at best, next week you will need 280,000 tests. the following week, 560,000 tests.

Of course, as the doubling means the virus is out of control, we will in fact have positivity rates well outside the WHO guidance, but even at 10% positivity, we need 42,000 this week, 84,000 next week, 168,000 the following week.

That is why we are not going to recover from the current testing issues. The combination of increased demand alongside exponential growth will mean that tests will not be available to get teachers back in front of classes fast enough for schools to stay open.

A very interesting post, thank you.

Can't say you've cheered me up though .

I saw Scotland is at 5% now?

Does anyone think they might back down on fines in the near future? Our family are fast approaching the point where deregistering is our only option, but I don't want to do that if fines/prosecution for vulnerable families may stop soon. Having my nightly panic attack about all of this .

Plus of course huge additional demand for testing when universities go back

What Qsad said. Totally nailed it.

Repeat my understanding is that in Scotland it’s only 1st tests they consider.

So if you’re child had tested negative before and tested negative again they wouldn’t be included in the percentage tested positive.

Not sure I have explained it well, but it will always be over inflated.

Seems a bit daft. I get it counting repeat tests, but within a few days not forever.

@Beebityboo

Does anyone think they might back down on fines in the near future? Our family are fast approaching the point where deregistering is our only option, but I don't want to do that if fines/prosecution for vulnerable families may stop soon. Having my nightly panic attack about all of this .

I don't see how fines can be enforced, it seems to not be in line with the intention of the law, but I am no expert.

Have you spoken to your head?

It become perfectly obvious that this campaigning for full opening were useful by vulnerable and disadvantaged children as a smoke screen for their own selfish concerns.

Most of the schools affected to so far are inner city schools in some of the most deprived areas of the country. These children have been badly failed by the people who saw school as childcare and would accept no other option because they didn’t have the imagination to see how their plan would fail.

A consistent education for ALL students lies in blended learning with the priority places on those in need. Especially at secondary where most student could work from home part time.

Tik Tok ...... extended half term here we come

Sorry ‘were using vulnerable and disadvantaged children’.

Didn’t mean to imply that children were using people!

Organised part-time schooling - rather than chaotic part time schooling, which is inevitable under current circumstances for almost everyone except those who are very lucky - would need to be for every year.

We could have got every child back for half a week, every week, from as soon as it was allowed if it hadn't been for the ever-expanding number of 'keyworkers' - while we had very few initially, over half the school declared themselves eligible, so it was increasingly hard to balance this with returning the priority year groups.

A preferred model educationally would be 2 'shifts' per week, of 2 and a bit days, with a thorough clean and a couple of hours PPA time in the middle. Group A from each class would do highly compressed input initially, then the rest of the week on 'output'. Group B would be offset by a couple of days (they would start with a couple of days 'off', but would then work a couple of days extra into the next holiday) and do exactly the same.

A better model for infection control would be week on, week off, though that rotation would be quite slow for primary pupils.

Teachers would deliver the same material to each group, to reduce preparation and to make up for the fact that they are marking and giving feedback on 'output' for the other group at the same time.

We did it over lockdown - in school teaching a returned year group and remote learning for our own classes - so I know it to be possible.

Blended learning - is that what teachers want?

I don’t want it because I think 6 months of homeschooling was enough and we cannot do this for another year or 2.

But how can a teacher teach a class in person and also teach online at the same time?

I just can’t see how it can be done without physically and emotionally breaking teachers and parents.

In many ways I think the ones shouting loudest for blended learning since it perhaps suits their personal circumstances are selfish.

@Qasd

You’ve misunderstood what socially distanced schooling would be like.

Ideally, the government would stump up for them all to be in school all the time in more classrooms with more teachers.

However, we could always do a rota. Whereby every child got two days a week, with work to take home for the other days. These means the work would be explained by a teacher and then constantly monitored.

That means that all children get equal provision.

What is actually happening now is a slow collapse towards remote learning for the majority of kids as centres and bubbles close down. It is random, chaotic and absolutely the worst of all worlds. No consistency!

What is actually happening now is a slow collapse towards remote learning for the majority of kids as centres and bubbles close down. It is random, chaotic and absolutely the worst of all worlds. No consistency!

Exactly