How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@Timeforanotherusername

Worry not. I am telling you that it can easily be done. Just because you haven’t seen something happen doesn’t mean it isn’t feasible.

@RepeatSwan , yes spoke to her this morning as DS had caught a cold in the four days he has been back despite how "covid secure" the school is and I needed to inform her of the result (negative).
I just reiterated that as a disabled mum, I am really afraid and really concerned and will she fine us. I got a very curt reply which basically just said "I expect the children to be in school on Monday" .
I don't know what to do anymore.

Belle so tell me how it can be done?

So my DC do not suffer because we are both working.

And please don’t tell me my 5 year old can be learning in a different room to me all day so as not to interfere with my work, like a PP did.

Or question my parenting or his behaviour because he couldn’t learn this way.

@RepeatSwan

The number of tests processed is still misleading when you remove the antibody tests because they count each test twice (each swab!). According to the ONS, around 80,000 people are being tested a day. That’s the figure that counts but the government removed it from the daily data.

@Timeforanotherusername

Right, so you seem to want to avoid what happened in lockdown. As do we all.

You five year old (like my four year old) can’t be in a different room al day learning.

What they can be is at school two days a week and then at home doing scheduled some school activities for the rest of that week.

It’s not the best but it is a damning sight better than the chaos that is the slowly collapsing school system. How much learning is you child going to get done when their bubble/ school closes for a minimum of two weeks? How much childcare will you have magic up then?

It is icy more manageable and consistent if parents and children know the day, reduce the risk and help to keep schools consistently open.

Primary is a totally different kettle of fish to secondary. They need to be planned for differently.

Belle but won’t you still have disruption from closing bubbles when you get a positive case?

Also in your plan do KW etc have ft provision? Where do they fit in on their off days

Totally agree with staggered school days for those that can and agree with the some learning whilst at home.
Esp in primary teachers could concentrate one day maths, work sheet, 2nd day English, work sheet.

I hope to god the schools don’t close and pretty sure it will be a very last resort.

@Hyperfish101

I hope to god the schools don’t close and pretty sure it will be a very last resort.

Hyperfish,

I don't think the schools will be told to close. i do, however, think that many schools will de facto be shut, because of year groups sent home to isolate and, even earlier, teachers self-isolating who are unable to get tested.

The Government can say 'open' all they like, but unless they tell teachers to teach regardless of symptoms, and students to stay in school regardless of infected peers, schools will shut. Proper 24 hour testing - you know, the testing we were told existed - would at least mean that teachers testing negative would return to the school after a couple of days - but testing is broken, so that 2 days is now 14, with a huge impact on schools' ability to stay open.

School Im at has closed to 2 different year groups already.

Kids have been back 2 days and 2 weeks.

Meanwhile infection rates have continued to climb despite lots of people unable to get tests. It makes you wonder what the numbers would be if tests demand wasn't 4 X capacity.

I doubt the next 2 weeks will be much better

I’m worried for years 11 and 13. How can they sit exams next May when their 2 year has basically consisted of patchy chaotic part time teaching?

Here grade standardisation will help them. Although scores will be a lot lower than 2 years ago so will grade boundaries. The proportion of people getting 8's 9's etc will stay broadly the same or even be higher than normal if exams are cancelled again.

@MarshaBradyo

It’s not my plan. It’s what’s being done all over the world so that children can have a sustainable education in these times.

It is the government’s job to come up with something that won’t fall over after a term.

There are already tens of thousands of kids back at home again under this plan. Can you honestly say that it’s working properly?

With blended learning there would be some disruption but far less because of lower exposure and smaller bubbles. The students would also already be used to doing some work at home.

I’m not sure how people don’t see how being able to plan ahead PT learning is better than randomly having to find childcare for two weeks all the time because of bursting bubbles.

[quote BelleSausage]@MarshaBradyo

It’s not my plan. It’s what’s being done all over the world so that children can have a sustainable education in these times.

It is the government’s job to come up with something that won’t fall over after a term.

There are already tens of thousands of kids back at home again under this plan. Can you honestly say that it’s working properly?

With blended learning there would be some disruption but far less because of lower exposure and smaller bubbles. The students would also already be used to doing some work at home.

I’m not sure how people don’t see how being able to plan ahead PT learning is better than randomly having to find childcare for two weeks all the time because of bursting bubbles.[/quote]
Belle they would still be sent home after a positive case in bubble and ad hoc childcare would need to be found. That’s if having them home part time already didn’t stop people working.

But what about KW provision? How would that be done?

@MarshaBradyo

Could you not work that out for yourself? Are you saying it couldn’t be done? Where’s your evidence?

Frankly, the whole system is going to gambler by itself in the next few weeks wouldn’t it be better to put something else in place now rather than just sticking our finger in our ears.

Also, setting up blended learning would require all schools to have a decent online offer that they use regularly. How can this be a bad thing considering the paint of kids already at home?

[quote BelleSausage]@MarshaBradyo

Could you not work that out for yourself? Are you saying it couldn’t be done? Where’s your evidence?

Frankly, the whole system is going to gambler by itself in the next few weeks wouldn’t it be better to put something else in place now rather than just sticking our finger in our ears.

Also, setting up blended learning would require all schools to have a decent online offer that they use regularly. How can this be a bad thing considering the paint of kids already at home?[/quote]
No I’m asking you genuinely what would happen with KW provision?

Do you think it would be off too or all in?

Because both have issues, one means that provision for others is far below half. The other brings obvious issues for KW who need to work and vulnerable students

It shows that part time is not a simple solution of half in half the time. So which way is better?

I think there is a very real risk that even with blended learning we would have both that and school closures. I think that to avoid this, we need to switch to blended learning before cases rise too high. If cases are too high, we will have the worst of both worlds. If cases are relatively low, blended learning will keep them that way. If we leave it too long, the window of opportunity will have passed.

However, I think we will leave it too long, since our government has been reactive rather than proactive throughout, and I think that instead of blended learning we will end up with a full lock down.

The biggest risk to schools is high community cases. After initial colds etc in Scotland there hadn’t been school spread. Data in this would be useful, but going by Scottish posters on here.

Measures to limit cases coming in will always be more effective than SD and part time. As any case coming in still closes that bubble. You only need to go from one student on one day to two as a minimum (one in each session) for this to happen. The threshold is incredibly low.

I think people are looking back to June and getting a false sense of stability from numbers in school. Rather than looking at number of community cases which are different.

But schools add to the general community level and full time school with full classes will quite possibly add more than double the amount of half time school with good social distancing.

@Nellodee

But schools add to the general community level and full time school with full classes will quite possibly add more than double the amount of half time school with good social distancing.

What are you basing that on? Genuine question

Israel had high community cases but low incidence of spread between close contacts

Not much to go on, but not definitive either

My school has been putting a lot of effort in to buying material that can be accessed online.

It's strange having so many options available when they haven't been there before and I haven't quite got my head around all of it. But we had a deadline to post everything we've taught so far online by the end of last week and now we have been asked to make sure all homework we set can be set and marked remotely.

I feel like we're prepping for a repeat of March.

Not sure what the long term financial impact is of this as they haven't received any extra money. The premises team told me the sanitising measures were costing £2500/week alone. (And we have a new member of staff in charge of cleaning / the extra measures.)

@MarshaBradyo Israel had high community cases but low incidence of spread between close contacts

Israel is in the lockdown to reduce the number of transition. All schools are closed.

[quote notmyselfanylonger]@MarshaBradyo Israel had high community cases but low incidence of spread between close contacts

Israel is in the lockdown to reduce the number of transition. All schools are closed. [/quote]
You do realise they opened them last term?

Did you miss the articles across international media and scientific studies from that time