How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@Timeforanotherusername

itsasecret so seriously damage a generation of kids in primary school....ffs every single year is important.

Don’t be so dramatic. Kids will cope without a year in primary school. Secondary children will not. There has to be a priority. Secondary children must be it, like in other countries.

No because lots of primaries have mixed year groups anyway!
Better stuck with some younger kids and a teacher than at home with mum working...
Many kids are years out from achievements anyway.
Our 2 form entry had 3x year 5/6 classes.
Tneres a kid in my dc class who in yr 4 is at the level she was at at the end of reception if that. She could be doi ng yr 5-6 english.

Primary is not just about learning the 3 r's......

So no its not dramatic

@Keepdistance

No because lots of primaries have mixed year groups anyway! Better stuck with some younger kids and a teacher than at home with mum working... Many kids are years out from achievements anyway. Our 2 form entry had 3x year 5/6 classes. Tneres a kid in my dc class who in yr 4 is at the level she was at at the end of reception if that. She could be doi ng yr 5-6 english.

It’s quite clear the more you say, the absolute lack of insight you have.

Teaching a bubble of 30 across all key stages isn’t teaching, it’s childcare and a total waste of time education wise. At least understand what you are asking for. It will never go this route and hopefully secondary schools will be prioritised first. Those children have been seriously let down and the majority of adults are not fighting their corner.

I’m amazed at how selfish people have become in this pandemic, whilst trying desperately not to appear that way.

@Timeforanotherusername

Primary is not just about learning the 3 r's......

So no its not dramatic

It is dramatic, the curriculum changes all the time and primary aged children have a lot more time to adapt than secondary children who are still expected to sit their exams. Children will not be ruined at primary age by having a year out. I have seen children who have had practically zero primary education for various reasons go on to get top GCSEs.

The difficulty is that primaries are prioritised by the Government due to childcare.

In theory, the tiers of closure go like this:

Tier 1 - everyone in (we are currently in tier 1)
Tier 2 - secondary part time, primary full time
Tier 3 - secondaries closed, primaries full time
Tier 4 - everyone closed, except for keyworkers.

Introduced here

More guidance for Tier 2 here

The issue will be that there will be nobody to staff primaries in tier 2 and 3 UNLESS we get on top of testing AND infections very quickly indeed, so effectively Tier 2 will be part time for everyone - controlled(ish) for secondary, uncontrolled foro primary.

To be honest, there isn’t the staff to keep primaries open now in Tier 1. So many staff can’t get tests for families or themselves. They will close to all but key workers rapidly. It won’t be their fault either and not through lack of effort.

@Itisasecret

To be honest, there isn’t the staff to keep primaries open now in Tier 1. So many staff can’t get tests for families or themselves. They will close to all but key workers rapidly. It won’t be their fault either and not through lack of effort.

Exactly. Whether posters WANT part time or full time will become irrelevant - when schools run out of people to put in front of classes, schools will close partly or fully, often at short notice.

Yep, it will be before half term at this rate too, so parents need to prepare. Staffing is already a huge head ache. Covering all over the place.

It’s puzzling why so many school staff are waiting tests or have symptoms. London nhs trusts have minimal staff off, data regularly collected and it’s been less than 1% off for weeks. People are commuting, working in large teams with little ability to SD, only wearing ppe when in direct contact with patients and working mostly since March. Working with vulnerable groups, you’d expect the percentage to be much higher. We do have testing at work. People back to work within couple of days.
So, with good testing which I know we have not got at the mo, there should be no need for extended staff absence.

It’s always known as the sickly month, schools are germ hotbeds. If staff/their families/children have one of the 3 symptoms, then they must be tested. Everyone who works in education said this would happen. If there isn’t the tests to weed out a Covid temp or normal cold temp, we will close again. They should’ve sorted testing, they didn’t. Schools will close with poor testing and the current guidance. It’s unavoidable and not because anyone wants it to happen.

Itis I agree that secondaries need to be prioritised. I have two year 10s, one at home already because of a case in primary schools.

Education cannot be caught up on for these GCSE years and I was gobsmacked by how primaries seem to be prioritised over secondaries, by the Govt and so many posters.
And I understand that is about working parents with primary aged children, but I'm talking about education. GCSE years that we can't get back. Lessons that are beyond my (a working parent too) level of education. This should be the urgency. The year 11s are already heafing towards another results fiasco.

Sorry a case in his options group, don't know why primary schools slipped in

@middleager

Itis I agree that secondaries need to be prioritised. I have two year 10s, one at home already because of a case in primary schools.

Education cannot be caught up on for these GCSE years and I was gobsmacked by how primaries seem to be prioritised over secondaries, by the Govt and so many posters.
And I understand that is about working parents with primary aged children, but I'm talking about education. GCSE years that we can't get back. Lessons that are beyond my (a working parent too) level of education. This should be the urgency. The year 11s are already heafing towards another results fiasco.

Agree completely.

So really we all need to be shouting about the utterly crap test system.
Teachers want to teach and parents want DC in school, we need to be proactive, the government certainly won’t be.

@cantkeepawayforever

The difficulty is that primaries are prioritised by the Government due to childcare.

In theory, the tiers of closure go like this:

Tier 1 - everyone in (we are currently in tier 1)
Tier 2 - secondary part time, primary full time
Tier 3 - secondaries closed, primaries full time
Tier 4 - everyone closed, except for keyworkers.

Introduced here

More guidance for Tier 2 here

The issue will be that there will be nobody to staff primaries in tier 2 and 3 UNLESS we get on top of testing AND infections very quickly indeed, so effectively Tier 2 will be part time for everyone - controlled(ish) for secondary, uncontrolled foro primary.

Is any region doing Tier 2 do you know?

Thinking about high number areas

Tbh our testing rates are high compared with Europe.

It’s the colds etc that kicked in at start of term.

And, lastly, more labs due in a couple of weeks

Yes the testing system needs sorting. They knew this was coming. Everyone in schools around here have a nasty cold/throat or sickness. It will get worse as it gets colder. The thing that will shut schools, is testing, yes.

University facilities offered lab space but were told no by the government- these were labs who can do pcr testing. Just ridiculous.

@Pomegranatepompom

University facilities offered lab space but were told no by the government- these were labs who can do pcr testing. Just ridiculous.

That’s crazy.

Yes. They wanted standardised testing, there are variations tbf in how pcr testing is done in labs but it’s quite simple to get an accurate result. We do it often for other viruses and just process in 2 labs to get your virus ratio.

It’s puzzling why so many school staff are waiting tests or have symptoms. London nhs trusts have minimal staff off, data regularly collected and it’s been less than 1% off for weeks. ..... We do have testing at work. People back to work within couple of days.

That's the difference. NHS staff, as i understand it, have a different testing stream, run by the NHS.

Teachers have to rely on the 'general public' system, which has completely broken over the last 2 weeks and is very unlikely to catch up again, given the huge rise in cases too.

Could teachers get access to the NHS testing stream, do you think? Or is that itself so close to maximum capacity that the extra demand would make it crash too?

@Pomegranatepompom

University facilities offered lab space but were told no by the government- these were labs who can do pcr testing. Just ridiculous.

The government has been determined to use private companies. They said no to royal mail, universities, local government public health teams... They've spent a fortune with serco, Deloitte etc., and look where we are

@MarshaBradyo

Tbh our testing rates are high compared with Europe.

It’s the colds etc that kicked in at start of term.

They look high because our figures include antibody tests, but when you take those out, not so much, apparently.