How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

No Cant I’m asking you specifically what happened in June.

Did they send the whole bubbles home with a positive case even though there was SD?

The only reason the Tories are pretending to care about the elderly anyway is because that’s their voter base. They don’t really give a fuck.

So Marsha, what you are saying is that you would prefer every child, every teacher, and every parent, to play the 'school hokey cokey' - to go into school every day not knowing whether it will be the last day in school for a while, or whether school (for that individual child) will continue for another day, another week, another fortnight? You would prefer uncontrolled, unplanned openings and closings to anything planned and organised?

Or is it just that you think any problem will be 'somewhere else', so your child will be OK, while those in badly affected parts of the country will just have to suck it up?

@MadameBlobby

Plus blended learning won’t be happening. It’s part time school because teachers can’t exactly split themselves in multiple pieces to deliver teaching in school to kids there and support for online. If you’re going to bang on about how wondering it is at least call it what it is.

I know this blended business is a misnomer.

It’s not even half time part time when you have KW etc provision.

Schools being closed in the first place and exams being cancelled caused more problems than it has solved.

Cant I am asking if June SD stopped the disruption you want to avoid

Did they send the bubble home?

Because if they did the only reason why disruption is greater now is because community cases were much lower then, compared to now.

@MarshaBradyo

No Cant I’m asking you specifically what happened in June.

Did they send the whole bubbles home with a positive case even though there was SD?

The bubbles involved were maximum of 15.

Not 250, or 1,500, or 30+.

Small bubbles with strict SD between them allowed for just 15 people to be sent home after a positive test - and these were rare. I didn't send any child home with symptoms, and no member of staff (every member of staff in the school was in except for shielders ) had to be tested. Both those are VERY different now.

Exactly @MarshaBradyo. I wonder how many would be delighted at so called blended learning when they saw that their child who missed exams already this year would be in school requiring to prepare for exams for Uni entry one day a week. That’s exactly what friends of mine and their kids were facing. A day of school a week to study for five highers. Absolute nonsense.

There is very little sd where I am and we are lucky and have some large rooms.
Students think its OK to hug and get close because they are in a bubble. They do not understand transmission at all. They have had PowerPoint, teaching on covid. I must admit they are very good with the hand gel in and out class and they mostly can be seen rubbing their hands.
Masks, 70 good 30 not.
But in class they gather round for tasks, hug, sit close... Sneeze... Cough! Demand windows are shut! In spite of one way systems they still have pinch areas, queues... They are supposed to have staggered lunches but this isn't happening.

The absolute only saving grace is... We are in part time to thin students out.

That also takes pressure off the staff room.

Ok hands up who has maths past gcse level?
Of course part time helps. The infectious is 2 day s before and 10 after.
Doing part time reduces the likelihood of the 2 days before symptoms being in school.
With this cold dc got ill saturday so if that had been her week off she may not have infected everyone else.
it slows the wave yes they wouldnt get more hours in but they woukd directly have work set.
And possibly would have had until nov rather than October.
Just reading the thread of the woman in hospital getting it and have to wonder if the staff have become infected by their children.

(Ah, no, I remember - a single member of staff had to be tested due tio a household member. They were absent for precisely a day - tested, and results returned. Now, that member of staff would be off for the full 14 days as no tests are available - and will not be available in the coming weeks either)

Part time if it is 50% and for a relatively short period is fine. I was happy with what our school proposed. I was not happy with it lasting a year and friends were not happy with their child being in one day a week for a year. That’s the big problem.

The bubbles involved were maximum of 15.

In secondary? Even with only 25% in they didn’t have this. And in class provision was very restricted and no where near enough.

Small bubbles with strict SD between them allowed for just 15 people to be sent home after a positive test - and these were rare. I didn't send any child home with symptoms, and no member of staff (every member of staff in the school was in except for shielders ) had to be tested. Both those are VERY different now.

Exactly. Symptoms were rare. Positive cases were rare.

Part time will not have stopped that in the first couple of weeks of term. The same number of positive cases and symptoms would have come in, even if one was afternoon / one morning. Or one Monday / Tuesday.

Part time would not have solved these issues.

@Keepdistance

Ok hands up who has maths past gcse level? Of course part time helps. The infectious is 2 day s before and 10 after. Doing part time reduces the likelihood of the 2 days before symptoms being in school. With this cold dc got ill saturday so if that had been her week off she may not have infected everyone else. it slows the wave yes they wouldnt get more hours in but they woukd directly have work set. And possibly would have had until nov rather than October. Just reading the thread of the woman in hospital getting it and have to wonder if the staff have become infected by their children.

What a horrible horrible thing to say.

I am appalled. Lost for word actually.

How a teacher could essentially put the blame on children for infecting a poor woman in hospital without having any knowledge of the situation - shameful!

Yes it would.
120 outbreaks (2+ some many)
Half of these infected kids wouldnt have been in that week.

Anyway as ive saud before most sense is to put siblings in together at least in primary.
That reduces contacts to probably half. Reduces risk to teacher.
If the teacher has it then only 15 families exposed. Taking the 2w off.
Also it's now 30 times you could have to SI.. Might well be as effective as part time. And has benefit of reducing contacts for before/after clubs. As siblings normally all go.

Half of these infected kids wouldnt have been in that week

Depends how it is set up.

The one I read was Mon/ Tues off then Thurs / Fri

That Wed for deep clean being the craziest part. A whole day.

As far as I can tell pretty much every single country is doing more than us to reduce risks in schools.

We don't know how much children transmit but we do know they can and do - so we should be precautionary. With the country on an exponential upward curve again, children over 6 should be wearing masks (like in Italy, Spain, parts of the US S Korea and on and on and on) if we can't do SD and smaller class sizes.

I'd rather have schools open with masks rather than 3 weeks without masks then lockdown.

The Director of the CDC said this week that masks might be better than a vaccine in terms of protection.

What the hell is wrong with this country?!

www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html

Putting siblings together in primary is a stupid idea. That’s not teaching it’s child care. So call it what it is. What they need to do is prioritise those poor kids they are hell bent on putting through exams this academic year and actually teach them. If that means primaries close for a bit, so be it.

The Director of the CDC said this week that masks might be better than a vaccine in terms of protection.

That’s some claim!

itsasecret so seriously damage a generation of kids in primary school....ffs every single year is important.

Not a teacher. I didnt say the kids 'did it'!
I mean it is a consequence of full time school has spread this to their parents and they work various places...!?
Wtf do you think happens people get it then it spreads. So all the nhs staff now looking for tests because their kids are ill is not happening. Im sure it goes the other way too the staff with have it give it to their kids who take it into school.
The reason im saying this is because i think the infections in care homes have also shot up.

We cant think this will just affect kids and parents.

medium.com/@drhassaballa/new-research-on-masks-show-they-can-act-like-a-vaccine-5dbde9398dd4

[quote IloveJKRowling]www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html[/quote]
That’s interesting

Re schools my son has sensory issues and is exempt from masks but he’s been trying his hardest to keep his on. He’s even started wearing it in class as he finds that better to cope with than taking it on and off. Bless him. Sadly many other kids aren’t even bothering to wear them the bare minimum.