How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@MarshaBradyo

Repeat fair enough

What years are they?

I have a scattering but none in primary now (no school run anymore )

@MarshaBradyo

Education doesn’t have to mean being in school, it can be done in many ways, caught up on etc.

Too many children are let down this way. It’s a severe under prioritisation of a low risk group.

So how do we manage to achieve this, given that what everyone in education wants is sustainable in-school education for everyone?

If teachers have Covid symptoms, what should happen? Should they go home and get a test (which may take days to get and more to get back), or should they stay in school?

If they have to go home, who should cover the class? Most schools cannot afford supply. There are no spare staff in schools, and TAs are increasingly rare - especially as the few class TAs who remain are increasingly being used to cover 1:1 TAs, as the close contact involved in the 1:1 TA job makes them particularly vulnerable to infection.

If there is no adult available to be with the class, what should happen to the children within the class? Do they go home, do they join another class, or should a self-isolating teacher somehow teach an unsupervised class remotely?

Equally, if a child has symptoms of Covid, should they be sent home? If they test positive, should contacts be sent home? Should the whole class / bubble be sent home - as obviously 1-6 hours in the same room with no SD with an infected individual is likely to result in transmission? Or should all / most children remain in school, despite being infected, until they in turn show symptoms? Is it reasonable to expect any adult to be in front of a class under such circumstances?

You can't just shout 'prioritise children; they are at low risk'. There is no effective infection control or SD in schools, and adults are required in schools to deliver education.

Part-time in school would allow us what we had in primary in June - genuinely SD learning for most, genuine infection control and therefore less illness. It isn't the BEST option, but it is amongst the least worst. I would much prefer, for example, to see a vulnerable child every other week for a week than to see them intermittently over a few in-and-out 14 day isolations or worse, a full lockdown.

@RepeatSwan

I think the schools plan as it stands is letting my children down, sadly.

But we will all have to just see how things progress!

I agree. It is so rickety and uncertain, and so obviously risky, that intelligent secondary pupils - and IME upper KS2 children - can spot the issues. They know that a case will send them home again.

Whereas when in the summer we had properly distanced in-school learning, with measures children were familiar with from outside school, even though it was not full time, they were happy and relaxed that the adults were taking proper care of them.

Part-time in school would allow us what we had in primary in June

Cant what happened in June when there was a positive case? From googling articles it appears bubbles and indeed whole schools were sent home. We must have been more vigilant back then.

Anyway part time does not stop community cases coming into the school, so it won’t stop disruption.

Primary age SD isn’t foolproof, children get close enough.

I’m not convinced part time will lower overall in school hours and still not stop disruption.

The best way forward is testing.

The best way forward is testing.

So you keep saying. However, in the real world we don't have testing. So what do you suggest we do?

Whereas when in the summer we had properly distanced in-school learning, with measures children were familiar with from outside school, even though it was not full time, they were happy and relaxed that the adults were taking proper care of them.

Community cases were so low in June. It is not comparable.

I bet the children ft in small classes liked it but it wiped out too many years, terrible solution.

What do I suggest?

Not do part time it will not solve your issues.

OF COURSE it would be better if we had the 24 hour turnaround, fully available testing system for children and teachers that we were faithfully promised.

We don't.

What happens next?

Let’s see what happens after initial start of term colds die down.

Even Berlin had this with their excellent testing.

Marsha, sticking your fingers in your ears and crying 'I don't want part time, I want testing' isn't going to help. We don't have testing, and it is causing schools to close through lack of teachers.

If we move to blended learning, then at least WHILE we are not testing there is not ALSO a huge exponential rise of transmission within and through schools.

@MarshaBradyo

Let’s see what happens after initial start of term colds die down.

Even Berlin had this with their excellent testing.

Sadly, the concurrent exponential rise in cases is going to mean that out testing will never catch up, because the numbers of people who need to be tested will continue to rise massively.

If there was a huge rise in testing demand but a drop in the number of positive cases - ie it was just that children with colds were being tested, so a higher proportion were negative - i agree it would die down.

Sadly, the number of cases is taking off - with many more being missed because people give up on getting a test - so this is going to get out of hand very fast.

Cant I’m not crying for anything, just suggesting. You seem more uncomfortable with current situation than I am.

You can go on and on about part time all you want but that’s not happening either. Is it? So what.

I have my dc in, they’re happy. I will cross bridge when I come to it.

Secondary has good online back up for closure and I trust them, they have been excellent so far. Primary I will do as before. Still glad they are in and taking each week at a time,

If cases continue to rise exponentially, schools will close regardless of whether the government says they are open or not. They will not have the staff.

I’m SLT in a London primary and I don’t have a class of my own. There are two of us like this. Currently we have four teachers isolating waiting to get a test (or more likely off for the whole isolation period as they can’t get one). Both of us are covering classes and TAs are covering the other two. But that’s it now - there is no more cover. My oldest DC is developing what looks like a cold with a snotty nose today. I hope it doesn’t develop into a continuous cough. I will take it seriously if it does as youngest DC is previously shielded.

I’m also desperately hoping that his bubble at school does not close in the foreseeable future as he is 6 and can’t be left alone. DH is a teacher too so either way classes will be impacted.

If there is more staff absence, we will have to start turning classes away. We are in one of the boroughs with the highest number of cases and many children are off too. Several neighbouring schools have had positive cases.

And this is theoretically happening at just the beginning of the exponential curve.

Oh, and we never received any Covid testing kits. Apparently they are on their way now, where they will be kept for staff members to use.

But they have been failed. Most people dying are over 80. No one wants anyone to die but you can’t jeopardise the life chances of a generation of people for the sake of people who have already lived most of theirs. Ideally none of it would be happening and we wouldn’t need to make choices but education needs to be prioritised way more than it has been.

@MarshaBradyo

Cant I’m not crying for anything, just suggesting. You seem more uncomfortable with current situation than I am.

You can go on and on about part time all you want but that’s not happening either. Is it? So what.

I have my dc in, they’re happy. I will cross bridge when I come to it.

Secondary has good online back up for closure and I trust them, they have been excellent so far. Primary I will do as before. Still glad they are in and taking each week at a time,

Marsha,

The thing is, I am concerned because i know what it looks like 'from the inside'. I am in a school, I know what it looks like in a school even in a very low incidence area - something that schools are hiding fairly effectively from parents at the moment, though that may not be sustainable for much longer. I can understand that from your perspective, it may look 'fine' - it probably does for our parents, too, at the moment.

DD's secondary has had 3 cases so far; year groups closed. A couple of year groups out in another secondary so far, more every day. Almost all primaries are really, really struggling for staff. Another fortnight, and unless 24 hour turnaround tests come in on Monday, we'll see a mess even in low incidence areas. Birmingham, Preston etc already in that phase.

Education doesn’t have to mean being in school, it can be done in many ways, caught up on etc.

Oh do explain how this applies to children with complex special needs and/or sitting exams in a few months. Maybe if your kids are still at the colouring in and Biff and Chip stage of schooling but mine are way, way beyond that.

Still glad they are in and taking each week at a time,

Yes. I take every day as it comes, and stuff as much as I can into this likely-to-be-brief period of in-school education for my class. Of course i wish it was ALSO a sustainable situation, which it could have been had better plans been made by the government. As it is, every day is a bonus for the children.

Cant but do you really think part time will solve it? That’s the bit I don’t agree with.

What happened in June with a positive case?

Because the only way disruption will decrease is if we don’t send everyone home in a bubble.
.

@MadameBlobby

But they have been failed. Most people dying are over 80. No one wants anyone to die but you can’t jeopardise the life chances of a generation of people for the sake of people who have already lived most of theirs. Ideally none of it would be happening and we wouldn’t need to make choices but education needs to be prioritised way more than it has been.

Do you have a relative in this age group? Or even close to it? Am I supposed to sacrifice my parents for the scum in this country who don't believe its real. Every one take a look at the NHS workers thread please!

Plus blended learning won’t be happening. It’s part time school because teachers can’t exactly split themselves in multiple pieces to deliver teaching in school to kids there and support for online. If you’re going to bang on about how wondering it is at least call it what it is.

Because the only way disruption will decrease is if we don’t send everyone home in a bubble.

That's an obvious fallacy.

If a child in my class is positive, we share the same room for 6 hours a day. SD is impossible because there is quite simply no space. saying 'Oh well, I won't send everyone home, because it is too disruptive' just means that it drags on over weeks, with children gradually falling sick, parents getting ill, grandparents getting ill.

In secondary, unless forms are kept together in the same room, chains of connections means that only a very tiny number of a year group would not be in contact at all with a positive case. DD's school tried to bring back part of a year group who 'hadn't been in contact', only to have to close the bubble in full again because of a second connected positive case.

My parents are in their 70s and taking measures to protect themselves and all of us have followed all rules throughout. None of this means it’s OK for children not to get a proper education.

I agree education need to be prioritised. Children need to be in school, socialising and learning. I am up for full classrooms, it’s brilliant if testing supports it. The problem is, it doesn’t. I echo other posters in schools, skeleton staff already and it’s just the beginning. Something needs to be done and now. The current Yr 11 and 13 have been failed more than any other year group. They are still expected to sit exams fgs. They need prioritising right now. I would also agree with the view point, we are sacrificing the futures of this generation for the one that came previously. By all means lock down care homes and shield people, do that but don’t steal the futures of the children. I hope they remember come voting time, as they will be eligible then.