How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

The childcare comment is a lazy argument which stirs ill feeling.

Absolutely.

It also betrays such crashing ignorance about how society is structured. Of course parents need childcare (as well as education) so that they can fulfil their own roles in society, whether that’s supplying other vital public services, or in the private sector, raising revenue that ultimately funds education budgets and people’s salaries.

Given that, until this year, pupils between 5-16 were legally mandated to be in school most of the day, no private provision has existed. And provision to fill a gap cannot spring up overnight.

Teachers themselves need the ‘childcare’ to do their jobs fgs.

@Scantilydoesit

'A vast amount of parents are less concerned about their children's education and more concerned about access to childcare (which they think schools are there for). The amount of times I have heard parents refer to schools as childcare is astonishing. I understand people's struggle if they work - I am one of those people - I have taken a career break because of the uncertainty around schools - financially it will be difficult - but I've made this sacrifice during this really difficult time.'

Others (like me) are aware of the rising competition in the workplace which will only get harder as students are all pushed into going to university. A degree is worth nothing now. I want my children to not have to struggle as they become adults and I'm trying my best to encourage the best education for them as possible.
PS: I'm on my own with three children and I work. Yes, my work needs to be done and yes, we need to live but to say that is the only motivation of most parents is frankly, wrong. Do you think this about all parents who are encouraging schools to stay open or maybe you are looking down on other parents who have to work and can't afford to take a 'career break' assuming they are all don't give a toss about their child's education.

Just a polite reply: I think you need to re-read my post slowly and clearly and it will answer the questions you have raised as you have obviously misread my post. You are using words I have not even said in your argument. I am happy to clarify points that may confuse you, but it is unfair to say I have said or implied things that I clearly have not.

A vast amount of parents are less concerned about their children's education and more concerned about access to childcare (which they think schools are there for). The amount of times I have heard parents refer to schools as childcare is astonishing. I understand people's struggle if they work - I am one of those people - I have taken a career break because of the uncertainty around schools - financially it will be difficult - but I've made this sacrifice during this really difficult time.

What are you “sacrificing”? A roof over your head? Food on the table? Having to choose between heat and light? That is going to be reality for a lot of people, probably mainly single mums, with part time school. That’s not to say it shouldn’t happen if required but to be so dismissive of parents who need their kids to be in school so they can work is ridiculous.

I’m so fed up with the “schools are not childcare” argument. Modern society is geared up around parents working and to do that their children need to be somewhere else with other adults. So patronising as well with the “teacher’s (sic) are trained” comment.

I notice as well the blended learning fans seem to be assuming it will mean half time in school whilst ignoring that for many, many children they will be getting only just over 25% of time in school and
no support the rest of the time as the teachers will of course be teaching the other groups of children. Blended learning is not going to be happening. It’s part time school, and woefully inadequate in many cases.

FWIW, my kids are in secondary, I wfh, and our school plans would have had them in part time, so it’s not all about self interest here.

Part time = half time

[quote Kingsley08]@MarshaBradyo I believe exam year children should be prioritised. Full time for them, clear out classrooms, reduce disruption. Then take it from there for years who are not in a critical year.

Having all children in school full time, means many exam children will be on/off, subsequently, their education will suffer, and their final exams will reflect this. Whereas a similar exam year child, in a different setting -low cases, private education - will experience disruptions and do better.[/quote]
I agree with much of this.

We can't have everything we used to have, we either get lots of virus spread with disruption from that, or we limit virus spread and get disruption from that.

Tbh 'normal' school failed a lot of people, there are always winners and losers, state is always struggling with fewer resources than private. There's no perfect solution, but limiting virus spread is vital for health and economic recovery, both this year and going forwards.

All education can be caught up, if we give resources to it.

@MadameBlobby

Part time = half time

Yes, to some extent, but full time does not equal full time if it is bubbles closing, teachers off etc.

Personally reliable predictable part time is better than chaotic full time.

Especially as small groups learn more, so you could probably get three quarters of the work done in half the time, and then do some homework for the remaining quarter.

@Char2015 good for you. You do realise that not everyone can afford to make that "sacrifice" don't you?

How would it work for keyworkers?

No provision because of you do then you cannot really offer the part time learning.

What about the parents who are working out of house. Who looks after their children? Grandparents?

What about the children who are already so far behind as a result of lockdown?

What about the children who's mental health has been severely impacted by lockdown?

I guess it will have reduced the risk for some whilst increasing it for many more.

How long is it acceptable for us to go on like this? 6 months, 1 year, 2 years?

Sorry @RepeatSwan that post was trying to correct something in my previous post.

Many authorities in Scotland published their blended learning plans. For some areas this involved high school pupils in exam years being in for only 1 day a week. 20% of time in school to study for 5 highers. Not even remotely feasible.

I hope the young don’t forget how the older generation let them down and they continue to remember it when the current middle ages making the decisions are old and relying on the current young people to keep the country going. I’ll never let my children forget how they were failed and let down to save old people.

[quote Waxonwaxoff0]@Char2015 good for you. You do realise that not everyone can afford to make that "sacrifice" don't you?[/quote]
Yes I do realise this because I am not stupid or naive in thinking we all live alike with the same income, same responsibilities etc. This was a sacrifice I chose that suited me and my children. Can I afford to? I will struggle more than I can explain, but as a single parent, who is going to look after my children if schools close again? How many times will I have to isolate if my kids become unwell? Government advice was to reduce amount of contact they had with others including care before and after school which meant I had to end the contract I had with the childminder. Who was going to take my children to school then? My Dad who normally would pick my children up, his shifts have changed due to covid-19, so who was going to pick my children up? Giving up work for 6 months, was my sacrifice to ensure I reduce the contact they have with others, and to ensure they can get to school and be picked up on time.

We can all make sacrifices to suit the needs of our family - I am not for a second saying they need to be the same sacrifices that another family makes. But if schools close again, which is looking highly likely that at some point they will, we will all need to re-think our situations to accommodate this. This is the reality of the situation.

I’ll never let my children forget how they were failed and let down to save old people.

This doesn't compute with me and my children, I wouldn't want them to grow up in a society that didn't want to save old people.

Tbh I don’t want my dc to feel like they’ve been failed. Even though my primary interests are their education and well being.

Very much agree with Pom

The old people don’t care about education it’s just childcare trope is old, tired and incorrect.

Even people who received childcare for their dc (KW) will want education.

@MadameBlobby

I hope the young don’t forget how the older generation let them down and they continue to remember it when the current middle ages making the decisions are old and relying on the current young people to keep the country going. I’ll never let my children forget how they were failed and let down to save old people.

What about encouraging resilience in your Children and reassuring them??!!

Instead intend to "never let them forget" how they were failed??

Ok then

I've lost over £500 a month in income due to this, and I'm now on the breadline. There's no answer to this that will suit everyone, we just have to get on with things the best we can. I think online learning would be best, with essential Childcare for younger children set up. Would require some funding That's just my opinion though.

Further clarification to the pre-school opening question do children become infected.

@RepeatSwan

I’ll never let my children forget how they were failed and let down to save old people.

This doesn't compute with me and my children, I wouldn't want them to grow up in a society that didn't want to save old people.

Me neither. I’d be mortified if my children thought that.

Education doesn’t have to mean being in school, it can be done in many ways, caught up on etc.

Education doesn’t have to mean being in school, it can be done in many ways, caught up on etc.

Too many children are let down this way. It’s a severe under prioritisation of a low risk group.

Too many children are let down this way. It’s a severe under prioritisation of a low risk group.

Absolutely this.

@MarshaBradyo I'm sorry if you have worries about your own children.

Parents can only say how things are for them. My kids are not at educational or mental health risk, so I am happy for a) them to get 'less' than they did previously and for b) other children to get more than mine do if needed.

What would benefit all children most, especially for older children, is the virus under much better control, but if there are children who need more support I would hope they can receive that.

[quote RepeatSwan]@MarshaBradyo I'm sorry if you have worries about your own children.

Parents can only say how things are for them. My kids are not at educational or mental health risk, so I am happy for a) them to get 'less' than they did previously and for b) other children to get more than mine do if needed.

What would benefit all children most, especially for older children, is the virus under much better control, but if there are children who need more support I would hope they can receive that.[/quote]
Not especially different ones Repeat!

I have an exam year child who is doing complex subjects, further maths in particular, he really needs to be taught this. The other subjects aren’t as vexing.

I also have a yr6 child who can easily learn at home with me but loves school and thrives around his friends. Ditto above.

I am happy to hold back on various things so they can access this. Yr5 child last year was excluded for the whole term and it was not a good solution.

My post was actually more general than my dc. We cannot let children down to the extent we did last term and I’m much happier than Chris Whitty says the same.

Than - that

I think the schools plan as it stands is letting my children down, sadly.

But we will all have to just see how things progress!

Also it took a term for government and Whitty to say it, but the message is key and right.

Repeat fair enough

What years are they?