How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

At my school, we are being asked to prepare to deliver lessons from home in the event of self-isolation and school bubbles collapsing. I think its probably the best option, but given the size of my house and the fact that other members of my family are quite likely to be present, I hope people do not expect silence, a lack of interruptions or an immaculately tidy house. It won't happen.

@neveradullmoment99

I have two secondary children. I am most afraid they bring the virus home. Their education can be caught up on. Their are other ways of learning.

Have you considered home schooling?

My lowest worry is the virus being brought home.

Hours of online learning is no substitute.

Agree with Friends on all points

Learning via a screen is nowhere near as effective as face to face teaching, the on line learning is entirely substandard in every way to normal school life

My friends with children in private schools say there provision was good. Sadly 'normal school life' isn't an option this term, it appears.

There/their

Private schools do online teaching and they are present, they are not teaching the other half of the school as would happen in state.

Repeat when a school got a positive case in June did they only send that student home?

All articles I’ve read indicate drastic action was taken. Bubbles closed but also schools.

@MarshaBradyo

Private schools do online teaching and they are present, they are not teaching the other half of the school as would happen in state.

We could do that then?

The issue is what posters seem to want is normal school and I think they are asking for the impossible.

My least preferred option is full occupancy school, high transmission, risk of bubble closures.

Repeat I’m not sure how in state?

If half class in the teacher is with them. Then other half ditto.

In private the teaching resource is attached to the group of students whether they are home or in school.

. I think its probably the best option, but given the size of my house and the fact that other members of my family are quite likely to be present, I hope people do not expect silence, a lack of interruptions or an immaculately tidy house. It won't happen.

Well yes I would expect it.

I am being told that my Y1 can easily be taught by a teacher whilst I am working from home with me only popping in occasionally

No, of course it will be difficult for teachers to do this. And teachers kids are probably not going to fare any better than mine.

@MarshaBradyo

Repeat I’m not sure how in state?

If half class in the teacher is with them. Then other half ditto.

In private the teaching resource is attached to the group of students whether they are home or in school.

Sorry, what we mean is, if people think private did a good job with all at home, why do they also object to all state pupils being at home?

What I see is people objecting to everything.

So we have full time school with high transmission and bubbles shutting.

And that puts state way behind private, because they won't have bubble closures.

There's no normal.option.

@Timeforanotherusername

. I think its probably the best option, but given the size of my house and the fact that other members of my family are quite likely to be present, I hope people do not expect silence, a lack of interruptions or an immaculately tidy house. It won't happen.

Well yes I would expect it.

I am being told that my Y1 can easily be taught by a teacher whilst I am working from home with me only popping in occasionally

No, of course it will be difficult for teachers to do this. And teachers kids are probably not going to fare any better than mine.

I'm sorry, I'm not getting from this whether you think it's reasonable to expect your primary kids to stay in a separate room and not come and pester you over an entire day, or not?

Repeat all at home makes me shudder. All that screen based learning. Children zone out.

If there is two weeks isolation for everyone then that is the time to switch to very good online as a substitute. It won’t stack up completely but will avoid long term screen-based lethargy. And it means education doesn’t have to stop.

Then actually, state could get some insight from private on how to do it well.

Nellodee

This is what I got told upthread. Their behaviour was mentioned subsequently.

Are you saying that you couldn't oversee your children? Pop in to check on occasion that they were on task? Noone was asking you to teach them!!!

@neveradullmoment99

I have two secondary children. I am most afraid they bring the virus home. Their education can be caught up on. Their are other ways of learning.

i have two year 10s, I'm least afraid the virus is bought home. Their education cannot be caught up at this age. Six months of patchy home learning and now more absences from school already (see below).

One is currently off due to somebody testing positive and after 3 days he is not accessing the sane level or volume as his peers.

brought home.

I wish some posters would understand that the argument for blended/remote learning is temporary. No one wants their children to be educated through a computer screen for eternity.

It’s a temporary measure during a pandemic. It’s about having a plan that is sustainable. If bubbles are bursting and children being sent home and teachers self isolating, children are not being educated as before. It’s fractured and disruptive.

@Kingsley08

I wish some posters would understand that the argument for blended/remote learning is temporary. No one wants their children to be educated through a computer screen for eternity.

It’s a temporary measure during a pandemic. It’s about having a plan that is sustainable. If bubbles are bursting and children being sent home and teachers self isolating, children are not being educated as before. It’s fractured and disruptive.

An exam year child will be impacted hugely if we are dismissive of their need for education - that is not screen based.

If you think the right way to go is to opt out for the pandemic the government has funded Oak Academy for another year. So you can take that option.

Apologies if this has been said up thread but my worry about the bubble closure system is that it will disproportionately affect many of those vulnerable children who we are keen to keep in schools. Presumably most of the closures will happen in the areas with a higher R number generally and these are focused around areas with high levels of deprivation, multi generational housing, high density houses etc.

The whole local lockdown and bubble closure smacks a little bit of 'I'm alright Jack' (and I live in a leafy suburb in the south with a low R rate so it's all actually fine here so far).

At least part time schooling would allow for social distancing and enable schools to have sight of those children. It would be boring as teachers, but if we all worked to a truly national curriculum which tied into Oak Academy or similar then it might do something towards not widening the gap.

Blended learning surely has to be the safest option at this stage. It's not going to work having a full school open with all kids in, kids spreading viruses, then having to isolate and wait to see if you can get tested then wait for the results and bubbles having to isolate if someone is positive. I think a fair amount of people think oh well if a bubble has to close its only two weeks then they can return. The same bubble could be back a week before having to then close again. Blended learning would mean SD could be achieved more so than with a full class, they still have access to teachers face-to-face and this would lead to lower numbers of children passing nasty bugs to others in the school. Even half-time in school, doesn't mean children full behind. Yes a school day is generally around 6.5 hours a daily - but I would say at least 2.5 hours of that is lunchtime, break times, registration etc (obviously this will vary from school-to-school). Home-schooled children on average are only educated for 3-4 hours daily and they have shown to produce similar outcomes to those in full-time school education.

A vast amount of parents are less concerned about their children's education and more concerned about access to childcare (which they think schools are there for). The amount of times I have heard parents refer to schools as childcare is astonishing. I understand people's struggle if they work - I am one of those people - I have taken a career break because of the uncertainty around schools - financially it will be difficult - but I've made this sacrifice during this really difficult time.

We all need to realise that teacher's are trained. Whether they teach in a class, online, or providing additional teaching methods, they will ensure children do not full behind. I think this year they are well prepared with any school closures, compared to when back in March when there was very little notice. We all need to make sacrifices one way or another to accommodate any changes to education or other measures implemented.

@MarshaBradyo I believe exam year children should be prioritised. Full time for them, clear out classrooms, reduce disruption. Then take it from there for years who are not in a critical year.

Having all children in school full time, means many exam children will be on/off, subsequently, their education will suffer, and their final exams will reflect this. Whereas a similar exam year child, in a different setting -low cases, private education - will experience disruptions and do better.

Can’t read the whole thread but I have two kids in independent schools. They are socially distancing somewhat and mask wearing outside the classroom. If their year has to close due to a positive case in their bubble they will move straight to online learning immediately. The teachers are used to it and so are the kids/ they all have laptops/phones and communicate with teachers online anyway. Lessons will be a mix of recorded videos plus work set and live teaching. All the kids and teachers are happy to be back face to face for now but they know it could change overnight and they are prepared. Half kids in at a time when they don’t need to be would mean all lessons would be streamed and recorded live whilst 1/2 class sits at home. They would rather not do that as it is harder for the teachers that way. It’s ok if they are supporting eg 1 vulnerable child that way but not half the class. Because the campus is big there is no need for blended/half time learning and kids are enjoying all the Outside sports on offer. I really think every school is different and what works for one optimally won’t work for another - I do think people need to start trusting the heads to make the right decision for their schools rather than hoping for some all encompassing centralised government gospel guidance. It is also not just a state/private divide - plenty of state schools have delivered extremely well in lockdown and some private schools really haven’t despite parents forking out a fortune. Best to look to the actual school leadership team in each case - a good leader will make the most of the situation knowing the limitations of his staff and student body.

'A vast amount of parents are less concerned about their children's education and more concerned about access to childcare (which they think schools are there for). The amount of times I have heard parents refer to schools as childcare is astonishing. I understand people's struggle if they work - I am one of those people - I have taken a career break because of the uncertainty around schools - financially it will be difficult - but I've made this sacrifice during this really difficult time.'

Others (like me) are aware of the rising competition in the workplace which will only get harder as students are all pushed into going to university. A degree is worth nothing now. I want my children to not have to struggle as they become adults and I'm trying my best to encourage the best education for them as possible.
PS: I'm on my own with three children and I work. Yes, my work needs to be done and yes, we need to live but to say that is the only motivation of most parents is frankly, wrong. Do you think this about all parents who are encouraging schools to stay open or maybe you are looking down on other parents who have to work and can't afford to take a 'career break' assuming they are all don't give a toss about their child's education.

@Char2015i absolutely don’t need school as childcare. I need school help educate my children. I’m surprised parents refer to school as childcare- demonstrates a lack of awareness.

The childcare comment is a lazy argument which stirs ill feeling.

@Char2015
Agree with every word.