How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

It shouldn’t take a whole day Never better to clean through the day as is happening with extra cleaners at our school

splendidseptember

Those that can, with the lap tops, the WiFi and the resources, why can't they be taught like that?”

🤷‍♀️

Kids in Australia have been succeeding via CB radio for decades. One time good friend was a classic one, middle of nowhere, growing up in the 60s. We all met in London in the 80s after he’d made it to Oxford. His American wife did the whole Ivy League thing but he achieved a better degree.

He’s back in Australia now heading up the global trading system for one of their major banks.

Obviously, not everyone will achieve such dizzying heights, but may well not have anyway with uninterrupted teaching) anyway.

Millions won’t have the resources, but for those who do, it can only help those who have no choice but physical classes.

Since the default position here is for parents to wfh this would have enabled that.

How would it have enabled that?

Tell me please. If you tell me how its possible for me to have DC at home 60% of the time and not have to support them in their learning because of their age whilst doing a pretty intense job, when DH is out at work, then I may be more supportive.

Its not ideal, granted but could have been made really good. The plan I think was for staff shielding to do the online bit. It could have worked. It could have been made really good but you see it didnt fit in with the gov narrative as they wanted all the children back so that parents could go to work. Thats why it didnt happen.

@RepeatSwan

Yes with SD in secondary you could assume others could stay in school imo, with exception of close contacts outside lessons. FE colleges doing that. More like workplaces.

Primary can't distance really due to playing.

Ok so in primary the disruption would not be reduced by much but negative impact is big.

@Timeforanotherusername

Since the default position here is for parents to wfh this would have enabled that.

How would it have enabled that?

Tell me please. If you tell me how its possible for me to have DC at home 60% of the time and not have to support them in their learning because of their age whilst doing a pretty intense job, when DH is out at work, then I may be more supportive.

Are you saying that you couldn't oversee your children? Pop in to check on occasion that they were on task? Noone was asking you to teach them!!!

In secondary it could be argued for lower grades not exam years. But I don’t have dc in those grades and think every child should get same access. Unlike last term which excluded so many.

Or is it their behaviour that is the issue?
If the focus was on the systems and they were tight i really do not see an issue.

@MarshaBradyo

I have always only favoured PT in secondary because a) they can more easily study remotely b) disruptions have greater impact due to exams etc and c) their non-school independent socialising makes them risky for transmission anyway.

Oh and i have children!! I teach [ and had to manage my class during lockdown] and my dh has a job too!!
Its not ideal but nothing is.

Learning could have been maintained and some form of consistency could have been achieved.
This approach will end up in largely inconsistent teaching. Fragmented with families falling ill.

every child should get same access is a real barrier to sustainable answers.

We need to say 'what does this group of children at this stage need'.

One size fits all is actually turning out to be one size fits no one.

The appoach we have now just to be clear will have maximum disruption! It will get worse!!

never but who's teaching my child?

If the teacher is also teaching the children who are in school?

[quote RepeatSwan]@MarshaBradyo

I have always only favoured PT in secondary because a) they can more easily study remotely b) disruptions have greater impact due to exams etc and c) their non-school independent socialising makes them risky for transmission anyway.[/quote]
Repeat I’m most worried about PT for yr11 dc. I can handle it for yr6. Although both are so much better in.

Part time is fewer teaching hours not some hours in class, some taught online. And I can see us sleepwalking into another A level fiasco where state receive half that of private.

@RepeatSwan

every child should get same access is a real barrier to sustainable answers.

We need to say 'what does this group of children at this stage need'.

One size fits all is actually turning out to be one size fits no one.

Totally!

Never what are the age of your children?

@RepeatSwan

every child should get same access is a real barrier to sustainable answers.

We need to say 'what does this group of children at this stage need'.

One size fits all is actually turning out to be one size fits no one.

Then by all means prioritise exam year as ft.

I’ll be happy but can’t speak for others and I don’t blame them.

What happened last term was ridiculous. Schools as childcare for many, whole years excluded.

I have two secondary children. I am most afraid they bring the virus home.
Their education can be caught up on.
Their are other ways of learning.

ts not ideal, granted but could have been made really good.

It would never have been any good at all, even with the all the money and resources in the world. Learning via a screen is nowhere near as effective as face to face teaching, the on line learning is entirely substandard in every way to normal school life, when you consider the impact on children not socialising, no school routine, physical education is not possible, no team sports and the experience of shared learning together in person can not be replicated. Not to mention the health impact of sitting in front of a screen for 6-8 hours on a child, we have no way to know the longer term damage to the brain and development of a child learning in that way.

It is totally unacceptable to even consider schools being anything other full time and fully inclusive, we would be doing the children are huge disservice, and the long term impact on them will be enormous.

I haven't even touched on the mental health of children - and those from abusive households. Quite rightly the government have ruled out closing schools.

Sorry there are other ways of learning. We are in unusual times. Nothing is normal!!

Could not agree more Friendsoftheearth

I think we're facing a truckload of disruption either way. And my kids are disadvantaged vs private, undoubtedly. They will be whether full time or part time, because private has more space and fewer kids. Private is less likely to shut bubbles, due to smaller classes.

My preference is controlled and planned disruption over uncontrolled and unplanned disruption. But I don't feel there is an undisrupted option.

@Friendsoftheearth

ts not ideal, granted but could have been made really good.

It would never have been any good at all, even with the all the money and resources in the world. Learning via a screen is nowhere near as effective as face to face teaching, the on line learning is entirely substandard in every way to normal school life, when you consider the impact on children not socialising, no school routine, physical education is not possible, no team sports and the experience of shared learning together in person can not be replicated. Not to mention the health impact of sitting in front of a screen for 6-8 hours on a child, we have no way to know the longer term damage to the brain and development of a child learning in that way.

It is totally unacceptable to even consider schools being anything other full time and fully inclusive, we would be doing the children are huge disservice, and the long term impact on them will be enormous.

I haven't even touched on the mental health of children - and those from abusive households. Quite rightly the government have ruled out closing schools.

Oh ffs. I give up. Health of your family, children relatives or education. Thats the choice. End.

What is an acceptable amount of years for children to be behind?

How do they catch up when they are back?

What happens to the children that are perhaps only a year behind (when they return to full time schoolimg) when over half the class have not really done any learning at all?