How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@Splendidseptember

I'd be interested to know, why dc with lap tops and a willing parent can't do some days at home, watching the teacher remotely?

Eg I work from home 2 days per week, I'm happy to have my youngest dd on those days, she could follow the classroom from home.
The dp I know have all been working a few days from home.
Those that can, with the lap tops, the WiFi and the resources, why can't they be taught like that?.

Remove bodies from the classroom where possible. Many dp are sahm too. The dc are also in a win win being taught properly, keeping up with the curriculum, and still going into schools to physically see their friends?

Exactly this. A sustainable approach that could have seen us through the worst of this with little disruption to children.

Its baby sitting @notevenat20 because how can a teacher teach children when they are not all at school?
The way it works is that if children are absent it means that they have catch up to do. How do you propose teaching can go ahead when child A is off for 14 days, Child B is off the next day and so on and so forth. It will fragment. As well as all the other school pressures and covid how will teachers manage this balancing act when they have 30 plus children in class. How will that work?
You have unrealistic expectations!!!!!

@MarshaBradyo

My dc are being taught currently not babysat.

The issue that mostly disrupted the schools here were colds etc forcing tests.

That is now. This is the beginning.

Never how does part time school solve it?

You’ll get some students who do work at home and others who do none.

You’ll still get community cases coming in to the school and have to isolate and miss out.

Part time isn’t a block against the problems. In same cases heightens them with greater learning gap.

Or are you pro another solution?

[quote Remmy123]@RepeatSwan whole schools have not closed!!!

I have 3 children in 3 different schools - large schools? Not one year has closed.[/quote]
I'm glad for you. But in my town year groups are starting to be sent home, and I am aware staffing is getting to be a worry.

By school.closures I didn't specify whole school or part school, I think both would be disruptive.

I just don't think anyone can expect no disruption, whichever way we go.

@MarshaBradyo

How do you see full time schooling working with higher levels of covid around in say four weeks?

I understand why people wish full time would work, but I don't see how practically you think it can.

[quote RepeatSwan]@MarshaBradyo

How do you see full time schooling working with higher levels of covid around in say four weeks?

I understand why people wish full time would work, but I don't see how practically you think it can.[/quote]
Repeat it depends on what Johnson decides upon this weekend re extra measures and the re-prioritisation of testing.

It’s such a shame that early term colds etc have disrupted the system to this degree. Berlin had disruption in early term but levelled out. Sadly we are not Germany but with some measures in place we have more of a chance (but keeping education going and economy).

I do question part time as some sort of solution to the issues. The issues would remain and in some cases be worse.

If children are coming into school anyway, and teachers are teaching anyway, how does part time schooling affect anything??

It will do nothing to minimise the 'risk' as you are either in contact or you aren't.

Higher levels of covid does not mean we have to close schools, it may mean that the shielding and the elderly (over 70) will need to shield again, it may mean that routine surgery may be paused, it may even mean socialising is stopped altogether, at no point has SAGE or the government suggested school and work cease. Not in anything I have read and researched today does it state that.

The main effect of part-time is to destroy women’s careers.

...and widen the educational gap

And ruin children's education and future.....apart from that it is a great idea

I think year groups closing is less disruptive than whole schools working remotely or part time learning

@Friendsoftheearth

If children are coming into school anyway, and teachers are teaching anyway, how does part time schooling affect anything??

It will do nothing to minimise the 'risk' as you are either in contact or you aren't.

Higher levels of covid does not mean we have to close schools, it may mean that the shielding and the elderly (over 70) will need to shield again, it may mean that routine surgery may be paused, it may even mean socialising is stopped altogether, at no point has SAGE or the government suggested school and work cease. Not in anything I have read and researched today does it state that.

Yes but many teachers are shielding. Doesn't that mean you would have even more staffing issues at school and effectively they would be forced to close? This is March again.

Are there a large number shielding ? That's surprising, currently less than 1% shielding in a large NHS trust. Have risk assessments been carried out? Hopefully any shielding staff are helping to prepare for the inevitable blended learning.

@Pomegranatepompom

Are there a large number shielding ? That's surprising, currently less than 1% shielding in a large NHS trust. Have risk assessments been carried out? Hopefully any shielding staff are helping to prepare for the inevitable blended learning.

For some reason MN is full of people who teach in schools with “multiple teachers shielding”

@MarshaBradyo

Never how does part time school solve it?

You’ll get some students who do work at home and others who do none.

You’ll still get community cases coming in to the school and have to isolate and miss out.

Part time isn’t a block against the problems. In same cases heightens them with greater learning gap.

Or are you pro another solution?

In my local authority the plan was to have small classes. That his how!! Teachers were set to have lets say 7 children on rota basis. It meant the children could socially distance. Less impact. Monday ~Tuesday - some children in school. Wed was a deep clean day Thurs Friday, other children in school. The rest of the time children were not in school, they would do learning online. They were in two days a week. That is the blended learning approach. Less children in, less risk. Maintaining contact with their piers and teacher. Since the default position here is for parents to wfh this would have enabled that. If this had been the position, learning could have ticked along without any disruption or very little.

I know i would have felt so much safer. Its not ideal but nothing is.

@neveradullmoment99 some authorities could only have kids in school with SD less than one day a week on average. Even senior kids in exam years.

There a lot of very emotive language about part time schooling.

I don't think anything has to 'ruin' education, 'destroy' careers etc.

I think we somehow need to dial it all down a bit.

I have lots of experience with very disadvantaged families. I know what support they need.

We face a lot of disruption. We need to accept that, own it and mitigate it. Nothing needs to be ruined or destroyed.

I do appreciate there's a lot of fear of change about.

A whole day for a deep clean that’s insane. What a waste of precious education time.

But for the rest did this extra SD mean that a positive case would go home alone? And rest stay in?

It was at least sustainable. It could have seen us through but parents lobbied the government and we ended up with everyone back. No SD from each other and lip service being paid and totally fake to imagine that this happens in a primary class!!!

Yes with SD in secondary you could assume others could stay in school imo, with exception of close contacts outside lessons. FE colleges doing that. More like workplaces.

Primary can't distance really due to playing.

I'm 99.9% sure Schools won't close down fully again. Bubble closures - yes, partial closures - possibly, part time schooling - possibly if things are really bad. but they won't close them all again, they can't.

@MarshaBradyo

A whole day for a deep clean that’s insane. What a waste of precious education time.

But for the rest did this extra SD mean that a positive case would go home alone? And rest stay in?

I reckon there would have been a lot less cases of covid if they had done this. The children were in bubbles of 7 and certainly no more than 10. The seating was L or T shaped. LIke the lovely pictures you see in the news. The deep clean was so classes could be used again with other children.

DD Headteacher is currently isolating at home with a daughter with symptoms.

Her solution was to bring in a substitute supervisor to the classroom and deliver the lesson remotely.

DD said after the initial weirdness it was fine

A child sitting 5 highers in school for 4 days every 3 weeks is not sustainable for anything other than extremely short term which it was never going to be, had it gone ahead.

I was quite happy with our part time school plans kids would have been in alternate days so 3 days one week 2 the next. But other areas were rubbish

@MarshaBradyo I agree the day closed for a deep clean was ridiculous. It only seemed to be the primaries that were going to have been doing it here not the high schools.