How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@MarshaBradyo

Time I know it’s so tough.

Personally I can take a lot of sacrifices but children are low risk and it’s too much to keep heaping this on them and what they miss out on

But they don’t exist in isolation. They need their vulnerable parents and grandparents. Some of the most vulnerable are being brought up by their grandparents. So many people are currently being thrown to the wolves.

I want schools to be open, my children are in critical years. I wanted to go back, argued for it even. I love being back, however I didn’t account for the balls up with testing.

You may or may not realise it, schools require adults. They simply cannot close, or they’d better stay open is laughable. There is COVID in the local schools already and we are in a low prevalence area. You may not know it as schools are good at carrying the can. Local schools are close to staffing collapse. Can’t get tests/they are sick/family members are sick. Staff are all over different bubbles at the moment covering for sickness/staff awaiting tests for themselves or family. So if that bubble pops, it will by proxy pop another bubble as adults are having to cover what they can.

They must stay open shows such a farcical misunderstanding of the absolute shit show happening right now. They will close and it will be very soon if this continues.

@LouiseNW

Just to clarify, said above my husband is a “very important” public sector worker.

Not saying he, personally, is a very important person but the role he fulfils extremely effectively is.

If you see what I mean. I’ll get my coat

I knew what you meant, I’m sure he’s both, go with your gut, I think it will only be another three weeks of education.

@Itisasecret

I want schools to be open, my children are in critical years. I wanted to go back, argued for it even. I love being back, however I didn’t account for the balls up with testing.

You may or may not realise it, schools require adults. They simply cannot close, or they’d better stay open is laughable. There is COVID in the local schools already and we are in a low prevalence area. You may not know it as schools are good at carrying the can. Local schools are close to staffing collapse. Can’t get tests/they are sick/family members are sick. Staff are all over different bubbles at the moment covering for sickness/staff awaiting tests for themselves or family. So if that bubble pops, it will by proxy pop another bubble as adults are having to cover what they can.

They must stay open shows such a farcical misunderstanding of the absolute shit show happening right now. They will close and it will be very soon if this continues.

Yes to all this 😢 Boris needs to be transparent and start sorting things out instead of playing for time.

Independent SAGE recommend funding schools so they can have smaller socially-distanced classes and provide digital resources for all students.

@ChavvySexPond

Independent SAGE recommend funding schools so they can have smaller socially-distanced classes and provide digital resources for all students.

What they say hasn’t had any effect on government so far

@ChavvySexPond

Independent SAGE recommend funding schools so they can have smaller socially-distanced classes and provide digital resources for all students.

I wonder what the wraparound help to enable people to self-isolate would look like?

Just been looking back, Boris only announced the shutting of schools on March 18th last time. They shut on 20th March.

We saw it coming because teachers had to make two week learning packs. This wouldn’t be necessary this time as online provision in place for those self isolating.

Here's a graph of where we are compared to March for those who think the numbers are small and don't warrant action. Numbers always look small at this point on an exponential curve. But they don't stay small. (From Christina Pagel at UCL.)

Ps I want sustainable school for those that need/want it but how they are treating shielders is unforgivable so I’m also rooting for a return to shielding / resolution re schools so that they can be protected again.

This wouldn’t be necessary this time as online provision in place for those self isolating.

So many schools have this in place? I know our academy school hasn't..

there is 1 community centre and a church near our school.

Oh and 2 other schools within a very small radius. Ours a 3 form entry, the other two are 2 form entry.

Where does all the space come from.

Oh and the staff?

Its all very well Independent Sage (who have an agenda btw) coming up with all these great ideas - but where is the detailed plan.

I would love if it could be done. I would love that more money got spent on education. But many decided that Brexit (which is going to fuck up the lives of our kids even more) was the most impkrtant thing and voted him in.

Slumptous, it’s just done by a guy who travels through everything, as the government try and keep everything quiet.

I think he can’t keep up!

Trawls!

‘We can't compare confirmed cases in March to now
The March figures were in reality 20-50 x bigger than the cases found
and that was the hidden iceberg

Hospitalisations and deaths skyrocketed after that, because cases were on the high gradient part of an exponential curve’

I just borrowed that from a very clever poster on Graphs thread. It’s late so running out of steam but I highly recommend reading BigChoc’s posts on there

@MarshaBradyo

Being yes we had that in a March the week before

But shielding came in I think? Which impacted. Plus no tests back then

Testing is key

Yes, and we don't have testing - it is unavailable in a sufficiently timely manner to keep a sentient adult in front of every class over the coming weeks as cases grow exponentially.

The unavailability of testing also means that infected children are being sent into school because parents are unwilling to mention the symptoms that would put the whole family into isolation for 14 days, whereas they might well have tolerated it for a couple of days (1 to test, 1 to get result).

Shielding will quickly re-start as cases get higher. Even at a much higher threshold than before, it will still further reduce available staff.

I hate this. I want to be in school, and with a child in Y13 I want her to be in school too - however in an area with a tiny incidence, there have already been 3 positive cases in her school and I expect her bubble too to close within the next week or so, leaving her to prepare remotely for her A-levels next year

The unavailability of testing also means that infected children are being sent into school because parents are unwilling to mention the symptoms that would put the whole family into isolation for 14 days

Aren’t the symptoms picked up on pretty quickly in school?

It depends. if a parent doses a child up well in the morning, temperatures are very unlikely to be picked up, for example.

@ChavvySexPond

Here's a graph of where we are compared to March for those who think the numbers are small and don't warrant action. Numbers always look small at this point on an exponential curve. But they don't stay small. (From Christina Pagel at UCL.)

Do you think that because it’s happening over a slightly longer time frame (9 days as opposed to 5 between those two dates with arrows) that they’re hoping to be able to cope with the turnover? 😢 Which is a horrible thought given they aren’t supporting shielders at all and are actually forcing them into dangerous positions?

Cough, yes possibly - though I could send every child but 2 in my class home at the moment, because they all have coughs that appear to be cold-related, as there are also oceans of snot. I have taken children to the 'triage' person and had them sent back to me as 'yes, theer's a cold going round, don't worry'.

Temperature and sense of taste / smell - not so much, especially if a parent is liberal with the Calpol bottle, or simply keeps a child at home with a 'cold' for a couple of days and then brings them back in - we cannot demand a negative test.

cant if you tell me how it would work without impacting the mental health of my kid

And how DH and I can work (him out of home and me in home) in pretty stressful full on jobs in industries that have continued to operate and indeed be busy throughout the pandemic, see that the kids are taught without us having a mental breakdown.

Please tell me how we can do it as I'm desparate to know.

@Timeforanotherusername

cant if you tell me how it would work without impacting the mental health of my kid

And how DH and I can work (him out of home and me in home) in pretty stressful full on jobs in industries that have continued to operate and indeed be busy throughout the pandemic, see that the kids are taught without us having a mental breakdown.

Please tell me how we can do it as I'm desparate to know.

I can tell you IF you can tell me how to teach children in school with no staff, and without passing on infection between children?

cant i can't of course

All I can do is make sure our actions outwith school mean that we will hopefully not be responsible for any outbreak.

And if kids do get it in school then hopefully it does not get spread by our family due to the actions we are taking.

But I am now really thinking why should I even bother.

Many schools had already closed down due to lack of staff in March before the government closed them down.

This is bringing the school system into the public eye. Teachers have been highlighting this issue for months, and to sort out childcare for when finally schools will reopen because they will close down.

What parents/guardians fail to realise is that normally when the teacher is off and no cover, the kids are split amongst other classes. CV this can not happen. The teacher is off, who do you expect to be in charge of the class, the most sensible pupil?

Because it seems to me you are either asking teachers to teach classrooms full of children with Covid symptoms - and active Covid infections - without SD or PPE, OR you are asking teachers to teach when they have potential or actual Covid symptoms themselves.

Thanks to the government, there aren't any other options.

24 hour, instantly available, tests for all teachers and pupils would help if available from tomorrow. any later and this will be too far out of control to recover from.