How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

This wouldn’t be necessary this time as online provision in place for those self isolating.

Really? First I'm hearing unless you are talking about Oak and bitesize. These are inadequate for GCSE/A Level

Never mind a large number of pupils don't have access to laptops. Yes I know, laptop scheme from the government. Not all laptops were delivered to students before July. Is this still even going because of the insistence that schools will remain open?

Then of course, lack of funds to the schools and families.

@cantkeepawayforever

Because it seems to me you are either asking teachers to teach classrooms full of children with Covid symptoms - and active Covid infections - without SD or PPE, OR you are asking teachers to teach when they have potential or actual Covid symptoms themselves.

Thanks to the government, there aren't any other options.

24 hour, instantly available, tests for all teachers and pupils would help if available from tomorrow. any later and this will be too far out of control to recover from.

The question is about shielding teachers. Will they risk their health? This is unfair to them and their families.

@Timeforanotherusername

cant i can't of course

All I can do is make sure our actions outwith school mean that we will hopefully not be responsible for any outbreak.

And if kids do get it in school then hopefully it does not get spread by our family due to the actions we are taking.

But I am now really thinking why should I even bother.

I wonder, equally, why I should bother putting my health at risk - I am clinically vulnerable - and why I should restrict my life so much (I isolate, except for in work, and have done so since March except for a single visit to my parents after 2 weeks of really struct quarantine in july after being in school from June 1st) since everything that I see about the behaviour of my pupils and their parents outside the school walls seems designed to spread the virus. Not to mention the fact that everything the government, and much of the public, says, belittles my role and my safety.

The question is about shielding teachers. Will they risk their health? This is unfair to them and their families.

It is also unfair to shielding parents, elderly grandparents, those who go in to work every day with the vulnerable etc etc.

cant our teachers do have some PPE.

I would not expect a teacher to teach when ill.

Its the lack of empathy and understanding of how difficult blended learning is for many children and families that frustrates me the most.

People have been carrying on as normal throughout the summer. Yet now they are shouting for blended learning.

If we had kept the infection rate low then it could have been managed.

I am angry at the government of course but really I didn't expect anything less. Its not as if Boris Johnson's appalling work ethic and shocking lack of morals was not there for everyone to see.

I am sure many teachers must have voted Tory........

cant our teachers do have some PPE. I would not expect a teacher to teach when ill.

We have no PPE at all - primary. Children wear no masks, and my nearest child is a few tens of cm from me.

All of us are working with colds, or the school would be shut fully already.

That includes the teacher in mid cancer treatment, just out of shielding, the teacher who is the lone carer for a very elderly parent, and those of us with underlying conditions.

We want the children in school, so we risk ourselves. We do not suggest blended learning lightly, but we are scared -for vulnerable children, for our friends and colleagues, for ourselves, for our families. it is increasingly likely that I will not see my elderly parents in person again.

Its the lack of empathy and understanding of how difficult blended learning is for many children and families that frustrates me the most.

It is not lack of empathy but looking for the solution in current climate. The schools cannot carry on as they are. The government is not making changes to ensure they can stay open as a full time provision. No tests and no security for teachers and learners. It is incredibly stressful time for all.

cant i can't criticise you for putting your own needs 1st.

But a teacher poster earlier called parents selfish for not wanting blended learning.

How am I being anymore selfish than others who are wanting to put their health over the health of my DC?

As I said already we are doing all we can do. We wear masks at school.drop off, we socailly distance, we don't socialise with others.

We would probably be fine if we got the virus but we don't want to put others at risk.

I accpet that schools probably will close at some point but it doesn't mean I agree with it.

Not when pubs are still open.

I cannot believe how selfish parents are being.

Yeah this is a great example of empathy!

,Not when pubs are still open' this is the biggest problem that the education is put first in writing and speeches. They should close before schools but I am afraid that it would be too late.

@Timeforanotherusername

I cannot believe how selfish parents are being.

Yeah this is a great example of empathy!

Because some parents are selfish. Sending their children with temperature. No isolation. Visiting friends and play dates. Going to parks and playgrounds when having Covid symptoms.

Time have you written to your MP?

Tell him/her that the government MUST follow scientific advice on safer school reopening (small class sizes - use community halls or portacabins), masks, social distancing. It has been shown to work.

These are the only ways schools will remain open full time.

Parents and teachers arguing is exactly what the government wants. Let's all focus on telling the government that we can see THEY are failing children, parents and teachers.

Fact is, if infection continues rising as it is, and testing remains this crap, schools will close one way or another (lack of teachers, too many bubbles closed).

Ilove been there and tried that for other matters.

He is all about his career.

He even condoned what Cummings did.........

If the belittling and lack of support continues, chances are more in education will quit.
How many were waiting to see how much they are thrown under the bus when the doors were reopened?
How many schools are facing additional issues because their support staff quit?

REgardless of the profession, if they don't feel safe and nothing is being done to protect them, then why are they going to stay there?
This isn't a profession that comes with a lot of risk normally, yet here they are.

They will be facing more pressure from slt once they start taking time off because of the pressure from parents to keep them open. It will go on deaf ears that if the kids are coming in ill then of course there's a risk of catching various things.

During the closure, did we finally manage to eradicate nits from classrooms?

@Timeforanotherusername
“If we had kept the infection rate low then it could have been managed.”

I appreciate the reasons for the increase could be any number of things, however they did coincide with the reopening of schools.

One of the ways to keep them open and secure is start fining parents for sending in their ill kids. Slap some extra on for the calpol dosers!!

Yes I know, low income families need to work. Hardly fair to the other low income families in the class is it? Forced to stay home and isolate because of your choices.

This is the dilemma millions of parents are put in every year because they have a child who is vulnerable as a result of their health. Bad enough trying to work and attend all their various appointments, but then having to take endless amounts of time off because some plank sent their ill kid in.

I read somewhere that the highest number of pupils on FSM are from homes where the child has medical needs. Many of these are also from one parent families.

It is fucking disgraceful in 2020 kids who miss school because of health have no education. This is all down to the government. It's not like this issue is a new thing.

Cases were rising before the kids went back to school.

Schools returning may be adding to the infection rate, but they are not the reason for the beginning of the exponential rise.

@Timeforanotherusername

cant our teachers do have some PPE.

I would not expect a teacher to teach when ill.

Its the lack of empathy and understanding of how difficult blended learning is for many children and families that frustrates me the most.

People have been carrying on as normal throughout the summer. Yet now they are shouting for blended learning.

If we had kept the infection rate low then it could have been managed.

I am angry at the government of course but really I didn't expect anything less. Its not as if Boris Johnson's appalling work ethic and shocking lack of morals was not there for everyone to see.

I am sure many teachers must have voted Tory........

Teachers voted Tory? Now I know you’re being facetious.

The infection rate was increasing before schools opened. It’s coincides with eat out/staycations.

@Timeforanotherusername

Cases were rising before the kids went back to school.

Schools returning may be adding to the infection rate, but they are not the reason for the beginning of the exponential rise.

Cases were gradually increasing through August, (don’t forget Scottish schools started mid August) the larger increases started on the 6th September.

Canni

You have to remember dp have been brainwashed into sending dc into with all sorts of illness backed up with fines for too many missed days. You have seen posts on here where dc with on going totally unavoidable health issues have been penalised by schools and been sent nasty threatening letters.

To then flick this switch back doesn't work.
Our school has been very clear they can only follow guidance from doh.
New symptoms that emerge for dc eg rash or extreme fatigue cannot be used as reasons to keep dc off school. Only official covid symptoms.
They have not said... Err on the side of caution, if your not sure and..
Don't worry, we won't fine you!

No... No reassurance so yes... Dc will be sent to school with all sorts.

Does it really matter if it's restaurants, raves or schools driving it?

Schools can spread it, we've seen that already.

Something needs to change - hands, face, space - except for schools where there's no space or face and just hands didn't work in March. Conditions in schools need to change. The easiest thing would be masks, but longer term ideally SD too.

Why is using village halls / leisure centres / unused meeting rooms / portacabins not an option? Never seen a good answer.

@IloveJKRowling

Does it really matter if it's restaurants, raves or schools driving it?

Schools can spread it, we've seen that already.

Something needs to change - hands, face, space - except for schools where there's no space or face and just hands didn't work in March. Conditions in schools need to change. The easiest thing would be masks, but longer term ideally SD too.

Why is using village halls / leisure centres / unused meeting rooms / portacabins not an option? Never seen a good answer.

Op is suggesting the rise only really started when schools went back. We know this is not the case.

One comment I do have about schools using other facilties.

How safe are they?

God forbid we had an evil person determined to.do harm to our kids, are these places secure enough to ensure their safety?

And then there is the staffing issues.

And also, even if they were safe, is there really enough facilties that would be available?

@IloveJKRowling

Does it really matter if it's restaurants, raves or schools driving it?

Schools can spread it, we've seen that already.

Something needs to change - hands, face, space - except for schools where there's no space or face and just hands didn't work in March. Conditions in schools need to change. The easiest thing would be masks, but longer term ideally SD too.

Why is using village halls / leisure centres / unused meeting rooms / portacabins not an option? Never seen a good answer.

That’s just the thing, something needs to change but dare say this won’t happen until it’s far too late.