How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

I’m sure parents would support blended learning if the experience in lockdown hadn’t been so poor for many.

Timeforanotherusername

Wholeheartedly sympathise. That’s the problem with this bastard thing, we are most of us faced with impossible choices.

Do we send our (asthmatic) 17 year old into College or keep him home and risk screwing up his future because of something he may ride out? Do we send him in knowing that if his dad, my husband, contracts it he will almost certainly die because of a genetic condition so rare I won’t name it because there are less than 400 people in England with it? As he’s a very important public sector worker, working from home generating and safeguarding literally hundreds of thousands of other public sector workers’ pensions with his very specific expertise and almist impossible to replace on a public sector salary , I don’t think he is. I, obviously 🤪, care very much about him but I care about them, too.

This is a million shades of grey, there are no easy answers. Confidence in our leadership would be a start (I voted for them, once and only, bummer).

Time I know it’s so tough.

Personally I can take a lot of sacrifices but children are low risk and it’s too much to keep heaping this on them and what they miss out on

@beingmums

This is exactly what I fear will happen and have since reopening plans were announced, a total disaster that requires full closing of schools, but I think when it happens it’ll be much longer than 3 weeks. When it does I don’t really see reintroduction until after the Easter holiday.

I 100% appreciate the difficulties that part time would cause many families but it must surely have better than none at all?

@Pomegranatepompom

I’m sure parents would support blended learning if the experience in lockdown hadn’t been so poor for many.

Our school actually did great and the content they provided was top notch.

But you can't just leave a 5 year old too it.........

We did a lot over lockdown and the kids completed their schoolwork every single week.

Perhaps we did too much. I am pretty sure some who had a lot more time than us did considerably less, but its our DC's education so we had too.

I am sure we would try it again. It would probably make us ill though.

How can we have blended learning where the parents work? It does not work! Plus our experience of home schooling was just dreadful. I do not want to go back there.

@MarshaBradyo

Time young and older students are let down by part time school. Hopefully Johnson will stick to his claim made today that schools will stay open.

The problem is that keeping schools open requires staff.

Staff who catch Covid; staff who have symptoms that look like Covid; staff who have family members who may exhibit Covid-like symptoms.

Unless schools become safer for staff, and unless there is a mechanism whereby all school staff and their families have access to testing turned around in 24 hours, schools will close because there are simply no staff to man them.

At the moment, a sick member of staff (or living with someone who shows symptoms) can deprive a class of a teacher for up to 14 days, because there are no tests. 95-98 of every 100 members of staff will in fact be negative BUT at the moment every single one of them will have to isolate because there are no tests.

So 100 classes will close for 14 days per 2-5 positive members of staff. Whatever BoJo says, this will close schools - not because of policy, but because of simple numbers.

Just to clarify, said above my husband is a “very important” public sector worker.

Not saying he, personally, is a very important person but the role he fulfils extremely effectively is.

If you see what I mean. I’ll get my coat

I was advised against working in schools by my consultant. Probably, I am not the only one.

Completely agree @cantkeepawayforever .

Cant the answer is testing I agree. More so than part time learning as you’d still have disruption from community cases and issues with tests.

To put it another way, given that the average primary has 14 classes - the equivalent of 7 primary schools will close per 2-5 teachers who test positive for Covid, simply because of lack of teaches to stand in front of classes. Yes, we can spin a smokescreen for a while, with a bit of unaffordable supply, a smattering of unqualified TAs, a few lessons of mixed classes in front of a screen in the hall, but ultimately unless we either stop staff becoming ill by making schools safer, or get 24 hour turnaround testing for teachers up and running again tomorrow, we're heading for disaster.

Your school may not be affected yet - but it is coming.

@MarshaBradyo

Cant the answer is testing I agree. More so than part time learning as you’d still have disruption from community cases and issues with tests.

Yes but the testing is shamble. No tests and the transition goes out of control.

Testing was battered by start of term. This is very unfortunate but hopefully not the thing we fall down by.

Prioritisation should include teachers.

I think this article sums up the chaos in schools at the moment:

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/sep/18/pupils-off-in-four-out-of-five-schools-in-england-waiting-on-covid-tests

If we cannot have 24 hour turnaround for teachers and their families from tomorrow - and i do mean tomorrow - the schools situation will spiral out of control everywhere other than the very remotest regions within the next couple of weeks.

BopJo may say that the schools are 'open', but in reality, although they will be 'allowed to pen', most will be closed to most children. except the private schools with small classes, and their access to their own tests (e.g. Eton, who tested all their students on arrival), who will be fine.

They simply cannot close unless the workforce is allowed to stay at home again, otherwise childcare will be completely impossible.

@LindaEllen

They simply cannot close unless the workforce is allowed to stay at home again, otherwise childcare will be completely impossible.

So, at the point when staff are isolating for 14 days at a time due to symptoms, and students are testing positive, how do you suggest they stay open?

Stay open despite infection?

Stay open despite wildly unsafe staffing levels?

You can't just demand that schools stay open when they realistically cannot.

@cantkeepawayforever

To put it another way, given that the average primary has 14 classes - the equivalent of 7 primary schools will close per 2-5 teachers who test positive for Covid, simply because of lack of teaches to stand in front of classes. Yes, we can spin a smokescreen for a while, with a bit of unaffordable supply, a smattering of unqualified TAs, a few lessons of mixed classes in front of a screen in the hall, but ultimately unless we either stop staff becoming ill by making schools safer, or get 24 hour turnaround testing for teachers up and running again tomorrow, we're heading for disaster.

Your school may not be affected yet - but it is coming.

So true.

@MarshaBradyo

Testing was battered by start of term. This is very unfortunate but hopefully not the thing we fall down by.

Prioritisation should include teachers.

It will be what we fall down by. Cases are growing exponentially and testing has been completely overwhelmed. There isn't a way out from here - testing will now not catch up again with rising cases, and we will have to close society and schools because we will not have a clue who is infected, and possible cases will be multiplying.

@cantkeepawayforever

To put it another way, given that the average primary has 14 classes - the equivalent of 7 primary schools will close per 2-5 teachers who test positive for Covid, simply because of lack of teaches to stand in front of classes. Yes, we can spin a smokescreen for a while, with a bit of unaffordable supply, a smattering of unqualified TAs, a few lessons of mixed classes in front of a screen in the hall, but ultimately unless we either stop staff becoming ill by making schools safer, or get 24 hour turnaround testing for teachers up and running again tomorrow, we're heading for disaster.

Your school may not be affected yet - but it is coming.

Supply is a huge issue. Our school has a deficit budget and has been told by the LA not to use supply. The government might promise that ‘money will be made available’ or some such statement but my HT doesn’t believe anything they say any more.

We will end up closing as we can’t afford to cover ill or absent staff-we don’t really have any TAs left who might have been able to do it either.

They simply cannot close unless the workforce is allowed to stay at home again, otherwise childcare will be completely impossible.

There is no ‘simply’ about it.

If they can’t staff the classes, they’ll have to close.

It was more shielding and lack of testing that hit staff absences in March?

Case numbers were very high then

@MarshaBradyo

It was more shielding and lack of testing that hit staff absences in March?

Case numbers were very high then

My local schools sent the letters to parents a week before the lockdown that they had to reduce the number of learners due to staffing issues.

Being yes we had that in a March the week before

But shielding came in I think? Which impacted. Plus no tests back then

Testing is key