How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

I am always bemused by the people who think the virus is going to slow down in crowded, indoor environments because parents find it tough if their kids are home.

Schools going back as they are in the UK give a golden opportunity for the virus to replicate.

Community levels weren't low enough when they went back, and schools aren't covid secure (or even close). Plus no functional test and trace

Working parents who are worried should be lobbying MPs for money for safer schools, and to fix test and trace.

Because as things are we're heading for March again whether that fits our lives or not.

@IloveJKRowling

I am always bemused by the people who think the virus is going to slow down in crowded, indoor environments because parents find it tough if their kids are home.

Schools going back as they are in the UK give a golden opportunity for the virus to replicate.

Community levels weren't low enough when they went back, and schools aren't covid secure (or even close). Plus no functional test and trace

Working parents who are worried should be lobbying MPs for money for safer schools, and to fix test and trace.

Because as things are we're heading for March again whether that fits our lives or not.

This.

@IloveJKRowling
Add to that the 5 requirements, 3, 4 and 5 are not currently being met. Yet the schools carry on as normal.

Whether it causes the virus to spread or not schools can’t keep closing. It’s bloody ridiculous.

3 cases at DC school, pupils told by teachers high likelihood of hearing before Monday that they won't be going back in
And this is an area with low rates.
They need to change the threshold for bubble closures or change to week on/off or something so that the kids don't spent from now until next summer at home in isolation.

Learning from home but allowed to go out for walks is preferable to being sent home regularly for 2 weeks isolation where you can’t even leave the house

The 5 tests:

To make sure the NHS can cope by providing sufficient critical care across the UK.

To see a sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates with confidence the UK is beyond the peak.

Reliable data to show the infection rate is falling to manageable levels.

There is enough testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) to meet future demand.

Any changes in restrictions would not lead to a second peak.

In fact none of them are being met at the moment.

No 1, if NHS not at risk of being overwhelmed then why has NEC nightingale just been put on standby?

No2, deaths are rising at the moment and not falling.

No 3, testing situation at the moment?

No 4, cases are doubling every week.

No 5, schools clearly contributing to increased cases.

I think at some point the Gvt realised the consequences of not opening up though

Which is why we are going I think to try and find a balance

That list correlated to opening up after first peak

But you can’t guarantee declining death rate without closing down economy, which is not possible.

@Areyousureted

Learning from home but allowed to go out for walks is preferable to being sent home regularly for 2 weeks isolation where you can’t even leave the house

Not for my son it’s not. Only child 7 years old. He was so worn down between match and July from seeing no other children and so off learning without any teacher input and with dh and I wfh. Soon as children were allowed to mix (3 July in Scotland) he came back to life. I’d much rather he was in and out all winter than totally home learning.

Thought this might be of interest.

Current schools affected by Covid
www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/school-cases-after-12-8-20/?fbclid=IwAR3UEadOwObXJfBdc0yZNqLYT-Jx1Ofe3k-ETBMLcnymGCPp3FRXlDvtCTE

Whether it causes the virus to spread or not schools can’t keep closing

If schools were driving transmission, why would we keep them fully open? That's the whole point of the half in, half out model surely - so some schooling happens without spreading the virus. Because all those childrens' parents would be unable to work, and how does that help?

There's no route through this without limiting spread.

*Thought this might be of interest.

Current schools affected by Covid
https://www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/school-cases-after-12-8-20/?fbclid=IwAR3UEadOwObXJfBdc0yZNqLYT-Jx1Ofe3k-ETBMLcnymGCPp3FRXlDvtCTEE

It is interesting, but missing SO MANY schools. I'm in Birmingham and there are about 7 more schools that I know of that aren't on the map and there are bound to be many more that I don't know about.

I can see that the only way to save schools is to have 3-4 weeks lockdown or until they get their tests sorted and transition down. Going as we are now, would get us even worse than during lockdown. Additionally, there would not be enough teachers and TAs.

Blended learning. Its the only way.

@neveradullmoment99

Blended learning. Its the only way.

Yes I was stating that previously, but looking at the transmission now, I feel that it would not stop the spread unless the schools are closed for 3 weeks.

I am a parent and a teacher.
I cannot believe how selfish parents are being.
Yes, I want my children to learn. No I don't want them isolated but quite frankly, im 53. My dh is mid 50's. I'm worried. They don't want us ill or worse either. They are worried in their little minds. Education can be caught up on. Parents cannot be replaced.

I'm not fussed for home learning but the environment in schools was never safe. It was a narrative. Business and money is all that matters to the tories. Without school everything falls apart.

But it will anyway as teachers will fall ill and who will teach the children?

The main concern at my school (village primary) is that if one of us gets symptoms and has to isolate until we get a test, who will teach our class? Budget is perilously stretched so we would normally cover in house but with separate supervision for each class for lunch and break times that’s tricky...

I’ve missed one orthodontist appointment so far this term, but will have to get my brace repaired soon. I refuse to miss IVF appointments though, so I don’t know how that’s going to work.

Believe me, it is MUCH easier to teach in person than online. Teachers do not want schools to close, we just want a testing system that matches the self isolation rules!

OK well clothes schools completely for this year. Start again next year.

Yes it will be shit for the children, but it's clear that's not really a concern for MNetters.

I can plonk my kids in front of tv whilst I work. I can make sure they are fed and watered.

I cannot do blended learning again.

Maybe if my kids were older. But they're not. They need my full attention and I cannot teach them whilst I am in meetings most of the days.

I could give up my job i guess........

I cannot believe how little empathy some people have.

They shout for blended learning and now other parents are selfish but they give little thought to how many families lockdown broke.

How many parents are children suffered deterioration in their mental healths.

@neveradullmoment99 it's not selfish to be concerned about your own family's needs first. Blended learning would mean me losing my job and my home that I've worked so hard to buy, I'm a single parent and my income is the only income. I cannot work from home so I would end up on benefits or something. Everyone's situation is unique. My DS is my priority, just as your children are yours.

Time young and older students are let down by part time school. Hopefully Johnson will stick to his claim made today that schools will stay open.

Marsha I know.

I am just appalled at being called selfish for not wanting blended learning.

We have done everything we can to keep ourselves covid free and to enable kids to vo back to school

We have made sacrifice after sacrifice and followed every rule.

More so I am sure than some calling for blended learning.

Yet I am selfish.

Beggars belief