How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@canigooutyet

Had results, we are all stunned. DS has tested positive. Yet living with me 24/7 from March - June he didn't get the virus when I had.

Someone mentioned organ damage, that's interesting, are there any links? Not only has my latest liver function test come back with some issues, a friend of mine was hospitalised and it required draining. Liver tests for both of us have always come back fine. Although admittedly mine could be because I did have a booze problem, but been sober for years. (will talk to gp in a months time when I finally have an appointment)

His immunity levels may have dropped enough if he was asymptotic and did have it when you had it and now has a slightly different strain. We are seeing occasional reinfections.

Will have a hunt for links on organ damage although, as of yet, to my knowledge whether it’s irreversible or not isn’t know.

I see we're still being negative and defeatist.The Department of Education has a legal obligation to educate our children and that's what they will have to do. If the country can afford to give millions to dummy companies for hand sanitiser, and waste millions on apps, PPE, immunity passports, "pregnancy style" tests and antibody tests that don't exist or don't work then we can put resources into our children's education.Stop saying it can't be done, and start telling the government to do it.Why are you accepting this farce where your children will be off almost as much as they're at school?Exponential curves are highly predictable. And we're on one. Again.

Great post Chavvy, and you're right, again.

I've been writing to my Tory MP a lot and he writes back with platitudes and/or never replies.

But I think if enough of us do it they can't ignore it.

I'd protest about this. With 29 others (outdoor, SD, masks). My banner would be 'Why is this illegal when my kid's crammed indoors with 29 others 6 hours a day?'

Italy paid for 40000 more teachers and took over any available public spaces to instigate social distancing.

That's impressive.

Yeah and a right wing government ( I think??? My knowledge of Italian politics is a bit limited)

They also delayed the opening of schools by 2 weeks whilst waiting for delivery of social distancing desks.

Boris just shoved everyone back

@SunbathingDragon

I should have clarified he was also tested when I had a positive test.

Thankfully for him, it's just like a cold, the same as a friend over 50 described it as a few weeks ago. My hope now is if I get it again, it will be mild.

And thank you for digging out any links you have for me. Hopefully it is irreversible, I already have a fucked kidney through illness which isn't irreversible lol. (I can laugh now, just about on a good day)

He could have caught it from school. Already had it in his system. From the person that coughed as they passed each other on the street last week. He's never met my friend, and I haven't seen that person since last year. Or from the deliveries last week.

I'd heard about Italys approach as well and such a shame that BJ stamped all of this out. China iirc have gone further and the kids are sitting in perspex boxes.

BJ only relented with the masks at the last minute because of increasing pressure from people.

I'm not accepting this farce. I have been writing to various local and government officials for months. I'm very active about this on SM. When the government did the make a t-shirt into a mask, I was very vocal about this and found lots of credible links to say err no it's unadvised. I've signed petitions. I've got involved with the school when they have asked for support and ideas with how to safely open. I lead a local campaign to get old unused laptop/desktops/tablets into schools. As well as asking government, I've been publicly questioning why money was wasted on a track and trace system when this already existed at a global level, why do they want to mine our info. Why the NHS once it got levels down did various departments and gp surgeries remained closed, and still are even in areas that have low numbers. And a whole lot more.
What have you been doing @ChavvySexPond

Canigoutyet, she’s probably ignoring the quite obvious facts as her kids have to be back at school come what may, accompanied by foot stamping.

We know they have a legal right to education. It’s the government messing this up, not the schools.

Lol probably.
That's one of the many questions I have asked MP's - how do they propose the legal education bit be upheld? There is no legal right to attend school but to receive education and how do the plans ensure this?

I get gumph about the bubbles.
I send them links to schools globally that have tried and failed to open without anything in place
I get send back the bubbles and SD.
I attach pictures of my sons school (on their website) of them not SD'ing
I ask how do they propose the school do this?
Only response has been the school have been given guidelines to sd etc.
I very nicely went through this, highlighting the areas of issue and the problems faced and sent it back. As the bubbles are closing in his school I email them and highlight these are not isolated incidents.

On a side note, it will be interesting to see how many of these kids decide to take legal action against the government.

canigooutyet Well done for doing so much.

If you have any suggestions about what I can do beyond writing to my MP and writing to head teachers of my children's schools then do suggest and I'll do my best.

I wrote to both heads explaining how far short their plans for reopening fell from the recommended scientific advice. They both responded to say they had no money and they were aware how limited the risk reduction they could achieve was. It's particularly disappointing as one school had DD back with all years SD in small classes for 4 weeks in June/July - said they had extra money then for extra TAs. I don't know where they got that money from. The difference between then and now is really very stark - and not lost on DD. She had a lovely time in her small class in summer term and felt safe with the SD in place. Not now.

I know head teachers can't do much, but I hope that at least having something in writing from parents might help them feed dissatisfaction back up the line.

ILoveJKRowling

I've been writing to my Tory MP a lot and he writes back with platitudes and/or never replies. “.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t. His secretary or research assistance prints off one of various stock replies and sends it to you.

@IloveJKRowling

Italy paid for 40000 more teachers and took over any available public spaces to instigate social distancing.

That's impressive.

It is good and better than nothing. Think it cost €2.9bn

Trouble is that’s one extra teacher and a bit per school here. So you can spend a lot and still not go far with extra resource.

Keep emailing them.
Talk about it openly.
Pull them up on their BS publicly with credible sources and always go back to the main source.

When emailing government about education do put in ideas that would realistically work for your children's school. One suggestion that comes up a lot is to use outside space - marques, portacabins, community centres etc. IF schools were given more money would these be feasible? No point giving them ideas that won't work, history shows this will be the chosen route.

One question that has them stumped -
If the existing policies with regards to truancy and at risk are there, then why aren't these used alongside parental/guardian contracts to give us the choice of blended or fully in schools.

Some schools clearly have the online stuff for remote learning already in place, why not "store" this remotely. Government have already given Google a contract for NHS, why not extend this to store comprehensive existing lesson plans from teachers for everyone that needs access to them for example. Stored somewhere completely different to schools so breaches, gpdr etc aren't an issue. Teachers don't have to take credit on the site for their plans if they don't want to, could be overseen by ex teaching staff to ensure plans are valid.

canigooutyet
Hope his is mild.

I wrote to dc school too.
Dc1 got a cold (sore throat/fever/cough) after only 8d back.
So bad to have a test. Definitely got this at school.
Anyway ht has decided to increase bubbles 30 to 60. I said to school in waiting for a test do you really think that's a good idea? No response to that and they did it anyway.
They have also chosen to run before and after clubs by key stage.
If schools can't stop well probably millions catching a cold what chance do they have with these measures stopping covid.
We also have a case in the local secondary

3392 new cases today and 21 deaths. Hospitalisations were 194 today for a weekly average of 154. The weekly average to September 1st was 52.

1118 schools now affected, this falls short of the number I quoted a couple of weeks ago for this point which was 1380. Which is 81% of that figure.

So I’ve miscalculated this or:

Many people are currently unable to access testing, a suspected case would only require isolation of the individual and wouldn’t add to any statistics.

Of those that have been tested it is taking up to 3 days to get the results at the moment. Potentially any school cases reported today could have been off the back of testing from Monday.

Some schools, particularly those in London, are not forthcoming with information.

The last reported attendance was 88%, I assumed 100% when I made calculations on the 24th of August. This adjusted for 100% would have been 1270 schools and 92% of that figure reached.

Moving forward, due to the testing issues I don’t know how the figures will present. I suspect school outbreaks will stop climbing as steeply due to children having to isolate as unable to obtain a test and know one way or another. However I can see a sharp increase in hospitalisations and later deaths.

Keeping - yes mild thankfully so far.

Instead of finding out why some schools ignored the government and carried on teaching the curriculum, Ofsted will be inspecting schools remote learning. I don't need Ofsted to tell me why my sons couldn't do remote learning, I can tell them - underfunding, budget cuts and following the government's advice.

www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-williamson-some-teachers-didnt-do-much-lockdown?amp&__twitter_impression=true

BJ says pupils shouldn't be sent home until a positive test in the bubble. Does he really think that schools are closing bubbles down for bants?

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-children-should-stay-at-school-until-there-is-a-positive-test-in-their-bubble-pm-says-12073421

2X4B523P - The numbers could be skewed as schools aren''t being as open as they were.

Wouldn't surprise me if HT's have had memos from high up to stop posting on their sites about the closures.

I am always bemused by the people who think you are fine to supervise and educate kids just because you are working from home. Clue is in the name ‘WORKING’, not doing childcare. Obviously the default option for the stay at home mummies on here who think that working women should just sacrifice their careers in the middle of a recession. Bravo 🤦🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️

@tappitytaptap

I am always bemused by the people who think you are fine to supervise and educate kids just because you are working from home. Clue is in the name ‘WORKING’, not doing childcare. Obviously the default option for the stay at home mummies on here who think that working women should just sacrifice their careers in the middle of a recession. Bravo 🤦🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️

I work and I want the kids to be at home. My preference is blended learning.

Full occupancy school = widespread transmission.

Widespread transmission = increased hospitalisations.

Increased hospitalisations = increased deaths.

I'm also quite concerned about long covid, personally.

@canigooutyet
Yes, I’ve heard quite a bit of that now. Don’t know why we can’t have transparency.

Another rise in cases today of 4322 and 27 deaths. School outbreaks now at 1251.

Dublin has just announced a three week lockdown, including schools.

I've been back at a school 3 weeks albeit most kids have been back only 2 days on the first weeks.

Already have 2 year groups isolating, staff off for testing and at least one positive.

Every class I've taught has had at least 5 kids out.

With cases going up it will only get worse.

@walksen
Indeed, things are getting worse by the day. Feels very much like early March at the moment.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

In my area of Scotland the kids have been back 6 weeks with no increase in cases, no burst bubbles and no teachers dropping dead as some said. That’s both primary and secondary.

Thats because NS managed to get the virus low enough. The problem is that once growth happens in the community, it will be like England. In my area there have been schools - high schools and primary. Not as much as England but i also think they are not reporting them all tbh. The ONLY reason its not in schools is because the virus isnt in your school yet. It certainly is nothing to do with what they are doing in the school. I have children come up to me all the time. ~Right to my face. I have teachers failing to comply with distancing. Management failing to do remote meetings, wear masks in meetings. It is a joke. Watch this space. I am in Scotland too. Its a matter of time.

I’ll give it a week or two.

"The ONLY reason its not in schools is because the virus isnt in your school yet."

It's a bit like the hospital in tamesidr greater manchester. There were infections there which spiked GM deaths a week or two back. Clearly there were some procedured that weren't sufficient but the problem wasn't apparent until they were stress tested by higher infections.

Covid secure Schools are probably the same.