How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@Timeforanotherusername
That would be good but there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of official figures.

How hard would it be to give a daily breakdown of:

New cases
New hospitalisations
Serious critical
Deaths
School cases
School closures
Percentage of primary vs secondary

I've just tested positive after being sent home because the bubble collapsed on Monday. The school are being very secretive about it all... Several staff members affected

Freedom of information act Jeremyirons

I thought there would be a testing crisis by the three week mark, significant numbers of schools would be closed or close to it by half term and there would be a rethink (along the lines that all rational people suggested months ago) by Christmas.

How am I doing?

I see we're still being negative and defeatist.

The Department of Education has a legal obligation to educate our children and that's what they will have to do.

If the country can afford to give millions to dummy companies for hand sanitiser, and waste millions on apps, PPE, immunity passports, "pregnancy style" tests and antibody tests that don't exist or don't work then we can put resources into our children's education.

Stop saying it can't be done, and start telling the government to do it.

Why are you accepting this farce where your children will be off almost as much as they're at school?

Exponential curves are highly predictable. And we're on one. Again.

The Department of Education has a legal obligation to educate our children and that's what they will have to do.

I feel the issue is the DfE can say they are doing this, but there's been a significant breaking of the promise that testing would mean schools were moderately safe in virus terms.

If you don't have a relaxed attitude to your child/family contracting the virus, this testing fiasco is perhaps not too concerning.

But my view is the virus is a concern and it is better to avoid, so without testing the risk in schools has got uncomfortably high.

I feel like the deal was I send my kids and follow the rules, schools did everything they could on the cleaning/bubbles front, government provided testing to limit cases in schools.

The government have broken their side of the deal!

@ChavvySexPond

I thought there would be a testing crisis by the three week mark, significant numbers of schools would be closed or close to it by half term and there would be a rethink (along the lines that all rational people suggested months ago) by Christmas.

How am I doing?

We got to 9 days in school and the other DC's school is on the brink. We predicted this, yet a whole Government seems incapable of even anticipating what will happen tomorrow.

Actually, it was 7 days in year 10. 9 would be wishful thinking!

@Jeremyironseverything

I've just tested positive after being sent home because the bubble collapsed on Monday. The school are being very secretive about it all... Several staff members affected

We have more than 50 schools off by me. I know of lots others though, like yours, where it's hush hush. The figures we are getting in the media are only half the picture.

Our cases are falling where we live at the moment, (I get covid messenger). It doesn't seem right to shut schools in areas where it isn't necessary.

We do have loads of colds about though

Yes middle

Only half the picture.

And sorry, the schools aren't off as a whole, just groups. I work in education and it's a nightmare for schools and parents.

We are only going by who can get tested though...and most can’t now. Estimations put true cases at 38000 rather than the 4000 shown by testing. This is not working. Schools are not working like this.

*ChanceChanceChance

*Things are already pretty hairy in e.g. Bolton, but they haven't moved to the blended learning option yet, so I have no clue how bad it needs to get before they do that. “

Not in schools.
Our very large NW College has had blended learning since the beginning of term. 2 days in, 3 online.
Had a telephone conversation with the head 2 days ago who volunteered that they are planning and putting measures into place for full time home learning as and when it becomes necessary.
Not sure where you are, but most people here feel a widespread local lockdown is inevitable within the next couple of weeks.

I suspect a short national lockdown is coming

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

I suspect a short national lockdown is coming

I hope not.

When you play by the rules its really shit when eejits do not.

I am now starting to worry about this 'saving Christmas' idea that has started to be circulated and the government seem to have on their agenda.
The pandemic seems to involve many choices and priorities for the government.
But Christmas is the retail event of the year with most consumer money being spent then in terms of food and gifts.
Is this 'saving Christmas' idea for our mental well-being or retail?
And if we all have to lockdown now so that Christmas is normal, is it worth jeopardising our DC's education?
Will keeping schools open be sacrificed so we can 'save Christmas'?

Remember children don t spread it?

I don’t think it’s about sacrificing schools. Unless part time learning and social distancing is implemented schools will have to close anyway.

Not enough staff, too many infections. To have a ‘moral duty to open schools’ means doing it properly.

The government haven’t done it properly. No shit Sherlock...

TheEmoji kids need to be at school. Govt are incompetent and could have done it better, but they couldn't magic space or extra staff up.

Blended learning was not the option.

And primary aged children are less likely to spread it........

I predict the government will start manipulating us into whatever restrictions suit them and their donors by using the Christmas thing.
I love Christmas, but I would rather my sixth former can get the education he needs.

And tell me which percentage of the multiple infections were actually spread is schools.

Until we know that its meaningless.

If i have CV and give it to my 2 children, then that is a multiple infection for their school......

@Worriedmum999

We are only going by who can get tested though...and most can’t now. Estimations put true cases at 38000 rather than the 4000 shown by testing. This is not working. Schools are not working like this.

They should have to declare the number of schools affected in the daily numbers.

Given the rule of six includes children as they can spread the virus (as if we didn’t think this already) schools/colleges need to be looked at again urgently. Go part time or fully remote. Parents who were tentative about sending them back will start to pull them out again and more staff will quit or go off with stress.

Had results, we are all stunned. DS has tested positive. Yet living with me 24/7 from March - June he didn't get the virus when I had.

Someone mentioned organ damage, that's interesting, are there any links? Not only has my latest liver function test come back with some issues, a friend of mine was hospitalised and it required draining. Liver tests for both of us have always come back fine. Although admittedly mine could be because I did have a booze problem, but been sober for years. (will talk to gp in a months time when I finally have an appointment)

I totally agree that kids need to be at school.

But in a SAFER environment not in this shit show. And if staff are ill or isolating schools will have to close anyway due to insufficient staff.

Italy paid for 40000 more teachers and took over any available public spaces to instigate social distancing.

Boris just shoved everyone back. So don’t give me shit about kids need to be at school. We all KNOW that. But the government have severely messed up and schools may close.