How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

So to protect my elderly neighbours and relatives, currently dining al fresco and taking daily walks and excursions, my DC and I have to spend repeated periods of 2 weeks self isolating at home due to a bubble of 200-300 pupils bursting with a single positive case. In those repeating, maybe almost continuous, periods of 2 weeks at home, my DC and I can't even leave the house for exercise.

Something is wrong with this situation. My DC and I look likely to be locked up for periods of 2 weeks repeatedly for many more months to come simply due to needing to work and go to school, while the retired don't have to.

The DC won't be able to get the education they need for their chosen university course and career path. And we will all lose the will to live, getting fat and vit d deficient stuck at home.

Sorry last message should have read I hope this is a one off rather than due to the lag between testing and hospitalisations.

@Hereinthesticks

So to protect my elderly neighbours and relatives, currently dining al fresco and taking daily walks and excursions, my DC and I have to spend repeated periods of 2 weeks self isolating at home due to a bubble of 200-300 pupils bursting with a single positive case. In those repeating, maybe almost continuous, periods of 2 weeks at home, my DC and I can't even leave the house for exercise.

Something is wrong with this situation. My DC and I look likely to be locked up for periods of 2 weeks repeatedly for many more months to come simply due to needing to work and go to school, while the retired don't have to.

The DC won't be able to get the education they need for their chosen university course and career path. And we will all lose the will to live, getting fat and vit d deficient stuck at home.

People aren’t going to keep doing it. They need to rethink this “bubble” idea. There are kids in my kids’ years at school my kids have zero contact with at all. Not friends, not in same classes. That they should all be the one bubble is madness at secondary level.

@RepeatSwan

To be fair, I don’t think we know enough either way yet

We know cases are doubling again, and we know that test/trace/isolate has fallen over. We need a serious intervention.

I'm not in Scotland so hadn't considered the electoral issue there.

Yeah I don’t think it’s quite as bad in Scotland but still rising cases

Do we know what good if any the masks are doing? It’s somewhere between fuck all and “if we weren’t wearing them we’d be in lockdown already” I suppose

Yes, 1 case per 30 in primary where they spend all day in the same room is very different to 1 case in bubbles of 200-300 older secondary and sixth form pupils who may not have sat in a classroom with the infected person.

My DC school with one entires year group shut down everyone who was on the bus too does have communal area snd corridor mask wearing, which might have prevented the spread but the pupils are all still home for 2 weeks and not able to even leave their homes

@TheKeatingFive

Just posting for information. The Irish government published their ‘living with Covid’ plan today. It’s 5 stages that the country moves up and down within, depending on Covid impact.

Schools remain open across all stages. If we get to level 5, that’s basically the same as March/April lockdown, but the schools don’t close.

Ireland has a similar set up to U.K. in terms of class sizes, buildings, etc.

There are stages like this for the UK too but not as many as 5.

@Hereinthesticks

So to protect my elderly neighbours and relatives, currently dining al fresco and taking daily walks and excursions, my DC and I have to spend repeated periods of 2 weeks self isolating at home due to a bubble of 200-300 pupils bursting with a single positive case. In those repeating, maybe almost continuous, periods of 2 weeks at home, my DC and I can't even leave the house for exercise.

Something is wrong with this situation. My DC and I look likely to be locked up for periods of 2 weeks repeatedly for many more months to come simply due to needing to work and go to school, while the retired don't have to.

The DC won't be able to get the education they need for their chosen university course and career path. And we will all lose the will to live, getting fat and vit d deficient stuck at home.

It’s to protect both the vulnerable and the nhs though. Nhs gets swamped and everyone is at increased risk.

My school was back a week. One confimed case and whole year group off. But now confirmed cases in the feeder schools. Teachers are teaching in masks.

Boris needs to get a grip. Let those of us who are able to teach at home with online resources. Take the pressure off the numbers mixing in schools.

If they dont take action very soon this second wave will dwarf the first.

@Willyoujustbequiet

My school was back a week. One confimed case and whole year group off. But now confirmed cases in the feeder schools. Teachers are teaching in masks.

Boris needs to get a grip. Let those of us who are able to teach at home with online resources. Take the pressure off the numbers mixing in schools.

If they dont take action very soon this second wave will dwarf the first.

From what I have heard, teachers do not have allocated time to prepare activities for those at home.

Teachers who are covering classes for absent colleagues aren't going to have the time to do both, how could they? Schools are going to have to prioritise years 13 and 11 and the rest will have to get what is left over unless the government decide now that all exams next year will be solely based on teacher assessment.

But if fines werent imposed and parents who could were allowed to carry on at home then reduced numbers at school would mean less infections and less staff off sick....freeing up time to set work for home.

Just like in the previous lockdown

Just like in the previous lockdown

In the previous lockdown only a tiny percentage were in school. Under your plans, that wouldn’t be the case.

I have no problem with homeschooling and think parents should be allowed to do it. But they have to do it properly, commit to a year off (while retaining their place) no help from the school. Otherwise it’s far too disruptive for everyone else.

I'm not sure I can worry about home schooling being disruptive, it feels like the next six months will be absolute chaos.

No one has any clue what is coming, a couple of kids home schooling will surely be a drop in the ocean.

I'm not sure I can worry about home schooling being disruptive, it feels like the next six months will be absolute chaos.

Teachers have more than enough on their plate without accommodating little Theo bouncing in and out at the whim of his parents (and setting him remote work when he isnt there).

If parents want to do it, they need to take full responsibility for their children’s learning.

@TheKeatingFive it sounds like you have a dislike of certain parents more than a concern for either the children or the school tbh!

it sounds like you have a dislike of certain parents more than a concern for either the children or the school tbh!

Why would I dislike parents I’ve never met on the internet? People really need to engage their brain before they post.

It is not reasonable, however, for these parents to expect two kinds of provision from already stretched teachers as they yo-yo their children in and out of school based on some private criteria of their own.

However, I think they should have their child’s place retained until September 2021, if they want to crack on and homeschool themselves this year. That seems like a reasonable compromise.

@TheKeatingFive

it sounds like you have a dislike of certain parents more than a concern for either the children or the school tbh!

Why would I dislike parents I’ve never met on the internet? People really need to engage their brain before they post.

It is not reasonable, however, for these parents to expect two kinds of provision from already stretched teachers as they yo-yo their children in and out of school based on some private criteria of their own.

However, I think they should have their child’s place retained until September 2021, if they want to crack on and homeschool themselves this year. That seems like a reasonable compromise.

From your 'little Theo' comment, it seemed you had a type in mind. I'm not sure, personally who 'these parents' are.

One thing this pandemic has thrown up is lives are all being impacted in very different ways.

One thing this pandemic has thrown up is lives are all being impacted in very different ways.

Well of course. But that doesn’t mean it’s reasonable to expect a tailored ‘in-out’ education model delivered to each individual child.

I dunno really, I don't think it has to be tailored, I just think flexibility is what is going to help a lot of people get through this very tough winter with less fucked up kids and less stressed adults.

I'm really lucky because I have a lot of flexibility in my life anyway. I think we need maximum compassion and minimum badgering to get through.

I think we need maximum compassion and minimum badgering to get through.

But you haven’t given a seconds thought, clearly, to how that would be provided.

Maximum headaches, stress and a huge amount of additional work for the teacher.

When does the remote learning preparation get done? They’ve spent all day teaching their class and prepping for that work. Then what, remote prep, starts at 9pm? How’s that fair or acceptable?

Then think of the impact on the class. Little Theo’s out when they do fractions. He returns after 4 weeks, has no clue because his parents don’t either. Teacher has to start from scratch with him, but also move on with the others, because the curriculum has to be covered. Little Noah’s out for two months, has made progress in some areas, not others, teacher has to devote considerable time to understanding what. She’s just got him back on track, then he’s pulled out again.

Meantime, she’ll get assessed on their performance at the end of the year. With no control over their attendance and what they did outside of her classroom.

It’s totally unfair to put all that on their heads so that parents can have flexibility.

I agree Respect, there has to be flexibility. The current approach will not work heading towards winter. The entire system is getting overwhelmed.

Retention of the school place, no fines and some online support is the easiest way to do it. All my teaching friends agree and would feel safer with the reduced numbers.

@Willyoujustbequiet

But if fines werent imposed and parents who could were allowed to carry on at home then reduced numbers at school would mean less infections and less staff off sick....freeing up time to set work for home.

Just like in the previous lockdown

At our school, even if home schooling without fines was optional, I think at least 90% of parents would send theirs in. Before summer our school managed to get every single year group back in and uptake was close to 100%. So wouldn’t save them space or time to organise home learning for the 10%.

Nearly 4000 new cases and 20 deaths today.

Schools affected now stand at 1011. The percentage of those with multiple cases is at 12%. A figure that is growing every day and points to transmission within schools rather than isolated cases being taken in.

Another development is schools may need to close bubbles or the whole school in lieu of confirmed cases due to the testing issues. My assumption would have been that the cases would have gone unnoticed and further drove spread, that might now reduce but many schools will find issues over what would have been common colds.

I think we would need to see data regarding multiple cases on schools.

When have the cases been identified?

What percentage of multiple cases involve siblings.

How many bubbles have multiple cases - and is there good reason to suspect transmission without the bubble.

I am not for 1 minute saying there is no transmission - there probably is.

What percentage are primary or secondary.

But we need data. And i don't think we have that yet.