How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

85o schools affected

How many cases though and how many are currently affected?

I know of several schools that had one or two cases and none more since.

This figure of total number of schools affected is completely meaningless

One death reported in Scotland today. A person over 85. Obviously a sad loss for that person’s family and care does need to be taken so it doesn’t go out of control again but are we really at a point where talk of closing schools is proportionate

@Hereinthesticks

Supermarkets don't close down with one case and they get visited by the vulnerable and old people. The affected person and anyone in close contact just self-isolate, I don't think they even bother with a deep clean anymore.

Because the infected person has left the building.

Schools are a constant group.

@canigooutyet

Yes totally agree but my setting IS doing blended learning, two days in one day at home. They went on line straight after lock down with minimal staff training.

Students who needed more support got it.. Ie lap tops.. Work rounds for WiFi.
It worked really well. They were proactive in asking parents and staff for help too...

The way some schools were allowed to drop the ball was disgusting.

We've now had a pathetic missive about dc sat on screens all day so should there be another lock down they will get minimal on line teaching. excuses, excuses.

It's appalling. Once again my dc will be dropped like hotcakes whilst their peers at forward thinking proactive schools will again forge ahead and indeed be ahead of the curriculum.

are we really at a point where talk of closing schools is proportionate

Deaths today relate to cases 3-4 weeks ago.

The question is how many cases are there today, how many by next week, and how many deaths 3-4 weeks later (by mid October).

It becomes harder to keeps schools open without test and trace working because you don't know what the flip is going on.

Cases are rising and hospital admissions are up. Tests are no longer available in my area and it's a widespread issue along with huge testing backlogs. Also the R number is now above 1. Local lockdowns still have almost everything going on as usual. Even when the time comes to close schools again the government won't do it.

@Popcornriver

Cases are rising and hospital admissions are up. Tests are no longer available in my area and it's a widespread issue along with huge testing backlogs. Also the R number is now above 1. Local lockdowns still have almost everything going on as usual. Even when the time comes to close schools again the government won't do it.

This is depressing, but potentially accurate

I wonder if parents will take their children out or just plough on?

I wonder if parents will take their children out or just plough on?

It will be different depending on view of the risk.

Some will withdraw now (ECV most likely). Majority will continue. Going by posts on here some non-ECV will start thinking about keeping dc at home. Although many will talk about it for a bit before doing it.

We have been talking about some of this on our school parents fb page today - I can't believe all those saying "scaremongering" and "doomongers" etc - can you not see the reality of what is happening here

We had parents from each and every year saying they had kids home waiting for tests - not one per year but several

It is fact. We have 2 full year bubbles home out of a R to 13 school after just two weeks. In secondary that could be several teachers to self isolate as well - that teach multiple years

I just can't see how we will even get to half term - and that is in a low infection rate area

The deaths that are reported are those who have died within 28 days of a positive test. The government website actually states that these deaths may not all be Covid.
So you can have a mild disease, test positive, recover, then be run over by a bus/ have a heart attack/commit suicide etc and your death is still reported as Covid. Why is that ?

Meanwhile my two sets of retired neighbours are currently enjoying a lovely meal together in the back garden. No work today, nice pension, no DC to try to get educated. Obviously they miss their family and have missed several holidays. I am happy to protect them and my own parents, but at this point my DC's entire life path is being jeopardised.

I had concerns sending them. I wish the government had tried with a blended learning model first. Especially for secondaries. They seem worst hit at the moment

I feel like a doomer but I'm really not. Wish this whole bloody thing would go away!

I found part time school last term dire for yr10. Now yr11 and glad he’s back in ft.

@Popcornriver

I had concerns sending them. I wish the government had tried with a blended learning model first. Especially for secondaries. They seem worst hit at the moment

I feel like a doomer but I'm really not. Wish this whole bloody thing would go away!

I don't think it is being a 'doomer' to look at data and state what you see.

The school plans were flawed - unless the intention was for covid to spread.

I was uncertain about sending mine, reconciled myself, but the failure of testing means I'm rethinking again.

It's not a virus to take lightly.

@Hereinthesticks

I think my DC, like many others, will not be able to go into their chosen profession due to this rule of 1 per 200-300 (rather than 30 like in primary schools). His university course will want 3 A* minimum, maybe 4 or EPQ. The course will fill its places with pupils from small private schools that have not been affected by the pandemic so much and pupils from abroad whose governments handled the pandemic better. Our normal large state school pupils will find it much harder than usual to get into highly competitive courses. Inside I despair, but I have to let him believe that this is something he can achieve, because if he were to receive a normal education he would be able to.

Yesterday I would have said you were wrong but today I despair of any chances for our exam year students 😢😢😢

@MadameBlobby

One death reported in Scotland today. A person over 85. Obviously a sad loss for that person’s family and care does need to be taken so it doesn’t go out of control again but are we really at a point where talk of closing schools is proportionate

Here they are struggling to get enough teachers to teach lessons and supply teachers don't want to work or are already self isolating. It's made worse by not being able to get tests or results being slow.

Just posting for information. The Irish government published their ‘living with Covid’ plan today. It’s 5 stages that the country moves up and down within, depending on Covid impact.

Schools remain open across all stages. If we get to level 5, that’s basically the same as March/April lockdown, but the schools don’t close.

Ireland has a similar set up to U.K. in terms of class sizes, buildings, etc.

@Hereinthesticks

Meanwhile my two sets of retired neighbours are currently enjoying a lovely meal together in the back garden. No work today, nice pension, no DC to try to get educated. Obviously they miss their family and have missed several holidays. I am happy to protect them and my own parents, but at this point my DC's entire life path is being jeopardised.

I know what you mean

It sometimes seems the people who are supposedly largely being protected by the Covid suppression measures are in general those least impacted by them.

True @littlemsattitude. That’s what will be the real scandal, if the reason schools have to close/we end up in lockdown is because the government can’t get a grip on the basics of trying to keep it under control.

I do feel pretty annoyed that high percentages of pensioner-age people respond to polls saying offices and schools should be open.

Here's hoping those worries about organ damage amongst mild cases are unfounded!

@RepeatSwan

are we really at a point where talk of closing schools is proportionate

Deaths today relate to cases 3-4 weeks ago.

The question is how many cases are there today, how many by next week, and how many deaths 3-4 weeks later (by mid October).

It becomes harder to keeps schools open without test and trace working because you don't know what the flip is going on.

They keep saying there’s a lag, but then on the other hand cases have been going up for many weeks now and no sign of deaths or hospital admissions - given they say it’s a week to catch the virus, a week to get seriously ill and a week to die then I’d have thought there would be at least some impact of the many weeks of rising cases now. It’s good there’s not of course!

But talk of closing schools and part time school when one over 85 year old person has died in the last week is going to be difficult to get the public on board with.

But talk of closing schools and part time school when one over 85 year old person has died in the last week is going to be difficult to get the public on board with.

Yes possibly, many people are kidding themselves that something is different this time

@RepeatSwan

But talk of closing schools and part time school when one over 85 year old person has died in the last week is going to be difficult to get the public on board with.

Yes possibly, many people are kidding themselves that something is different this time

To be fair, I don’t think we know enough either way yet.

Clearly we can’t just go “fuck it” and back to normal but equally the public need to be on board with the measures and just looking at the broad figures of 1 85 year old dying a week is not going to be enough to get parents on board with their kids’ education being disrupted. NS will also be mindful that she’s got an election in a few months as well and needs to keep the parents and exam years students (16 year olds can vote in Scottish elections) happy

@Hereinthesticks
@2X4B523P personally I think it is the returning from foreign holidays on mass transportation just before the start of term, but I know many won't agree with me.

Highly likely to contribute to some of the rise.

Over 3000 new cases again today and worryingly 27 new deaths. I hope this isn’t due to the lag of testing and hospitalisations.

To be fair, I don’t think we know enough either way yet

We know cases are doubling again, and we know that test/trace/isolate has fallen over. We need a serious intervention.

I'm not in Scotland so hadn't considered the electoral issue there.