How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

Here I agree it needs to be reassessed.

I put the same on another thread.

It is so sensitive to one case atm, with hundreds of students missing out.

It feels like 111 days when triage was set at the incorrect level.

Someone needs to assess it pdq

The threshold for mass yeargroup self-isolation needs to be higher for GCSE and sixth form pupils.
It makes sense for primary where pupils typically spend all day together in one room and there are only 30 of them, so one positive case is statistically justifiable. But if there are 200-300 pupils who don't even have all the same classes, the statistical threshold of just one case is much lower.

@Shooglywheel

6 deaths a day in the whole of the uk currently. They would be hard pressed to justify mass closures on that basis.

Hospitalisations and ventilation are rising again. They are rising more rapidly than they fell.

People are hoping for a miracle imo. The virus is spreading again and only good test/trace/isolate can keep the show on the road.

I bet you're fun at parties!

@Hereinthesticks

The threshold for mass yeargroup self-isolation needs to be higher for GCSE and sixth form pupils. It makes sense for primary where pupils typically spend all day together in one room and there are only 30 of them, so one positive case is statistically justifiable. But if there are 200-300 pupils who don't even have all the same classes, the statistical threshold of just one case is much lower.

You can only do this if you make the info know. I am not willing to risk my children's long term future for their short term future.

@Parky04

I bet you're fun at parties!

If that's aimed at me, I'm just looking at numbers, they are not good numbers.

I understand the hope, but it is a bit deluded.

If the numbers were good, I'd be happy.

@MarshaBradyo

I haven’t factored community transmission as such but for most of the period up to May half term the daily confirmed new cases were much higher than they are now.

There’s argument for what started the rise in cases recently but they did start rising in Scotland around the time that schools opened and then only recently elsewhere. How much of that could have come down to asymptotic transmission from school, to home and to the wider community?

[quote 2X4B523P]@MarshaBradyo

I haven’t factored community transmission as such but for most of the period up to May half term the daily confirmed new cases were much higher than they are now.

There’s argument for what started the rise in cases recently but they did start rising in Scotland around the time that schools opened and then only recently elsewhere. How much of that could have come down to asymptotic transmission from school, to home and to the wider community?[/quote]
The difference then will be testing triggering closure.

Map

85o schools affected

Supermarkets don't close down with one case and they get visited by the vulnerable and old people. The affected person and anyone in close contact just self-isolate, I don't think they even bother with a deep clean anymore.

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

Map

Hi can you link source so it’s interactive? Thanks

Judging by some of the comments from parents I've read on here today (refusing to test and/or isolate) it's looking pretty grim for schools

Hi,

Toryfibs on Twitter. I actually got it off a closed group, but they got it off there

@Hereinthesticks

Supermarkets don't close down with one case and they get visited by the vulnerable and old people. The affected person and anyone in close contact just self-isolate, I don't think they even bother with a deep clean anymore.

Yes but the customers stay 2 meters apart. The ventilation is different. There is more square meters per customer than in the schools. They have a maximum number of shoppers per square meter. They don't stay in a supermarket for hours.

@2X4B523P personally I think it is the returning from foreign holidays on mass transportation just before the start of term, but I know many won't agree with me.
I do think the policy of just 1 case in a secondary school or sixth form year group needs reassessment.
I don't want to catch CV or anyone else to, but if schools are going to be open for anything more than a few days later in the autumn and winter, something has to be done.
Also remember for someone in sixth form doing A levels, these next few months do actually affect their entire life, in educational terms.

If the letter we had today is anything to go by I'll give it a week, by half term more schools will be closed or partially closed then will be open.

Yes but the customers stay 2 meters apart. The ventilation is different. There is more square meters per customer than in the schools. They have a maximum number of shoppers per square meter. They don't stay in a supermarket for hours. I think everyone knows in reality none of that social distancing happens in a supermarket. I have been reading Mumsnet this summer and it is totally unrealistic.

@Hereinthesticks

Yes but the customers stay 2 meters apart. The ventilation is different. There is more square meters per customer than in the schools. They have a maximum number of shoppers per square meter. They don't stay in a supermarket for hours. I think everyone knows in reality none of that social distancing happens in a supermarket. I have been reading Mumsnet this summer and it is totally unrealistic.

But is still better than social distancing in school. Even if you pass the other customer, you do not stop chatting for more than 15 minutes. They all are required to wear the masks.

Ok found it on Twitter. Not interactive but

Source: Compilation of local newspaper reports, NHS reports, and school websites.

I think that’s a tall order

We need better data imo

I work in various supermarkets, customer do not pay attention to the two metres. Not at all.
We are not allowed to say anything either.
I wish they would stay away from me.

I think my DC, like many others, will not be able to go into their chosen profession due to this rule of 1 per 200-300 (rather than 30 like in primary schools). His university course will want 3 A* minimum, maybe 4 or EPQ.
The course will fill its places with pupils from small private schools that have not been affected by the pandemic so much and pupils from abroad whose governments handled the pandemic better.
Our normal large state school pupils will find it much harder than usual to get into highly competitive courses.
Inside I despair, but I have to let him believe that this is something he can achieve, because if he were to receive a normal education he would be able to.

Here I have GSCE child and I understand your feelings. Whereabouts are you, an area with high transmission? (I’m in London, it’s ok but rising)

No - barely any cases - we were in the press yesterday stated as a county with so few cases.
God knows how this one GCSE pupil managed to catch it. Statically very very low chance.

I now wonder if it's a false positive. Child was in last week but no other cases.
Still hundreds of pupils not in education for 2 weeks