How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

@herecomesthsun
Very true.

Also what it looks like on a map? As things stand, in my county, there is one school out of c. 500 who have had any cases in students or staff. ONE.

So whilst there may be closures in different locations (and even then, I think they'll only close due to staff shortages) I dont think we'll see a sustained national closure of schools again.

I just posted on another thread, but in England the mobile phone track and trace app comes out in a week or two.
Can schools relax their phone bans and make use of this app? It would ensure that only pupils who had sat near a positive case for a certain period of time would need to isolate.
It is designed to accurately identify contacts of a positive case. So why not use it in schools instead of sending several hundred pupils home for 2 weeks in the knowledge that some of them would have had no contact with the positive case at all (GCSE/A level options and sets etc).

@Hereinthesticks because there is no teaching if children have phone on them. Children hide them behind their desks, record other children, post it on social media and etc.

I know and I am not against mobile phone bans in 'normal times', but they can play an important role in protecting pupils and teachers (by identifying those who have been in contact with someone infected) and also keep as many pupils as possible in education.
Health and education are important. In most schools with mobile phone bans, the pupils will have a mobile phone on silent mode in their school bag/blazer pocket anyway. That is the reality.

The gap widened when some schools said screw what the government says, we will carry on teaching new things rather than work on areas that needed improvement with learners. revision etc.

Now every time a bubble shuts down, that's an average of 27 teens missing out on GCSE education for 2 weeks.

Schools were set up to fail.

Would love to know what the Educational minister and department have been doing since March. Or were they all put on furlough because little has been done and even then like everything else it's been a farce.

They already should have had data available to them about the spread of illnesses within education. They could have made back up plans based on those figures for a worse case scenario. They could have used figures of attendance from back in march and saw that schools closed due to staff shortages before they were told to close with the exception of kw and vulnerable.

THey could have worked with current and ex teaching staff to create a national database of lessons, especially at GCSE and beyond. THey could have given schools/leas powers to work in ways that suited that school community to minimise their disruptions to education.

Given the choice and with proper resources many of us would have homeschooled for a few weeks more. How many of us would have chosen blended learning if the school found ways that benefitted pupils and protected the community? Schools have policies in place to "target" families that need it.

There could have been conditions with us choosing this - if you're child isn't doing the work at home and not ill, permission is revoked type of thing. I would have happily signed a home/school agreement for this.

I have an email this morning from my sons school and they said that since they reopened they have had to send 2 children home out of the class with symptoms. They have had a test and now are back at school. Is this the policy of all schools.
Sal

The App is only available to over 18's.
Not everyone will download it.

A part of the APP will also ask for your personal details, and this will assess how much of a risk you are. It will monitor your every movement. You will be encouraged to QR scan places you visit, no idea if they have to be dynamic or static.

I won't be downloading it. We already had track and trace on a global level before CV.

If the children haven't got any cold symptoms, and gone 24 hours with a normal temperature without any intervention, they should be in school. If not, regardless of results, they have a bug and need to stay at home.

Link for infection periods
www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/how-long-is-someone-infectious-after-a-viral-infection/

OK, good points about the app, and in 'normal times' I would be firmly against tracking our children.
I am just getting desperate. My DC school have just sent home several hundred GCSE students and dozens more off a school bus for just one case in a GCSE student.
That student probably only had contact with half of those now sat at home for 2 weeks, and only prolonged close contact with maybe 20-30

At DD's school all of year twelve were sent home yesterday to isolate as 2 confirmed cases, thats 200 odd teens

@canigooutyet

If the children haven't got any cold symptoms, and gone 24 hours with a normal temperature without any intervention, they should be in school. If not, regardless of results, they have a bug and need to stay at home.

Is this not against the Covid advise. If you have temperature, isolate unless you have a negative test.

6 deaths a day in the whole of the uk currently. They would be hard pressed to justify mass closures on that basis.

Probably @beingmums

The tests are only accurate within a limited time frame. For many by the time they realise and get hold of a test they are nearing the end of that timeframe.

My first test was positive. I was only tested back then as in a why not just to rule it out as I was having a barrage of tests at the time and I had a new cough amongst other things.

Several weeks later because it was all still new, I was retested. I'd had a week symptom free, so the "new" cough etc warranted it. Plus of course research. It came back negative.

Whether or not the "second" time I still had the virus is debatable. What I went through was no different to the positive.

I'm not claiming I had it twice already, although of course once that immunity goes the risk it there again. The whole thing was a total head fuck and before the week break I would have randoms days without symptoms or not all of them.

Thought we were now up to 9.

Mass closures maybe inevitable because of the mismanagement from the government.

They told the nation hey if your overweight you're at risk. Oh and here you go, have some money on us so you can dine out.

Go on holiday, relax in the sun and when you come back, if you don't mind, SD on public transport then go and isolate. Want to get in your car to visit family, don't, stay at home (yea I know even that wasn't clear cut)

Schools have always been hotbeds for viral spread. Nothing new. Even if your child has a brilliant immune system, you will be aware of how quick things spread from their classmates. The posters/texts/emails alerts for nits, chicken pox, gastro, flu, hand and foot etc that popped up throughout the year.

What plans did the government put in place to cope with the impending demand for tests? Seemingly nothing as we have yet another shortage. If bosses want evidence staff will be forced to go into work. How long before some schools want to see evidence or they will issue fines?

Previously these would have been managed within the school to prevent the whole class from being sent home. Children put into other classes, sub teacher etc. Guidelines prevent the first, budget cuts and schools not being given any money for CV will prevent the latter for many schools.

There's also talk about support staff taking strike action. I can understand, they aren't teachers and many are being forced to take on the role of the teacher to keep the schools open at all costs. No offence to TA's, morally those studying GCSE/A level deserve a better education. Although you would think that teachers would have their lesson plans ready before the start of that lesson, not all do.

Another conclusion that can be drawn from the figures is what the likely affect of part time schooling would have had.

There was 3 outbreaks in schools from March through to June. When more children started to attend this went up to 197 up to breaking up for the summer holidays.

After a week and a half (for the majority of UK schools) and the number is 913 at 88% attendance.

197 in 13 weeks verses 913 in 1.5 weeks.

@2X4B523P

Another conclusion that can be drawn from the figures is what the likely affect of part time schooling would have had.

There was 3 outbreaks in schools from March through to June. When more children started to attend this went up to 197 up to breaking up for the summer holidays.

After a week and a half (for the majority of UK schools) and the number is 913 at 88% attendance.

197 in 13 weeks verses 913 in 1.5 weeks.

How can you not factor in the rate of community transmission now?

In the first week if half the children had gone back then it would have merely cut cases going in to school by half.

Part time school doesn’t stop community cases entering the school. The point of interest is whether it slows spread in the school or rather whether ft schooling causes higher spread.

Update on my DC school's closure of an entire year involving hundreds of GCSE pupils and dozen of fellow school bus users. A few hundred years down the road is a college where a staff number has tested positive: no students or staff need to self-isolate. Also apparently involvement of PHE. That cannot be true. One of the two establishments is not telling full truth or PHE is totally incompetent. Willing to believe either.

'yards' not 'years'
1 positive pupil = massive disruption for hundreds of people
1 positive staff member = no-one has to self-isolate at all except that person
Same PHE authority.

@Hereinthesticks

'yards' not 'years' 1 positive pupil = massive disruption for hundreds of people 1 positive staff member = no-one has to self-isolate at all except that person Same PHE authority.

I think it’s something to do with staff apparently being able to SD?

Even though they cannot always.

In the staff room? In the first few outbreaks at the start of term in Scotland and England, the cases were spread between the staff members.

@Hereinthesticks

In the staff room? In the first few outbreaks at the start of term in Scotland and England, the cases were spread between the staff members.

I don’t agree with it at all. But that supposedly is the reason behind it.

Whitty etc said adults stay apart, it’d be better if it was heeded.

I am just getting so upset and depressed by this. Just one positive pupil can cause so much disruption to so many without any evidence about who that pupil actually came into contact with. I accept that the workload if there were 20 positive cases would be very high, but not for just one pupil.
And as for the entire bus having to self isolate, that seems daft. The bus is not a long journey, some on the bus won't even have been on it 15 minutes, and there are upstairs and downstairs.
There needs to be more common sense about one positive pupil. In no other realm of society does one positive case cause so much disruption, not even in a healthcare setting.