How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

Agree those taking exams this year are potentially fucked.

The plan to open schools full time felt unicorn-esque. Maybe we had to go through with it to prove things one way or another.

School closures will be inevitable, it’s only a matter of time. You’d think the government would have a longer term strategy to aid catching up, repeating years where necessary etc. It’d remove all this angst about primary children missing out and the focus can be on secondary school/ exam years.

You’d think the government would have a longer term strategy

This could be applied to so many things

I can’t believe there are people out there who think primary should be prioritised over secondary, or vice versa.

They’re both as important as each other!! I’m sorry but one does not trump the other.

All school years are important.

Agree all school years important. I’m guessing a fair few teachers will also need the primary’s open to enable them to teach in the secondary schools.

Another case in our city . There are 6/7 secondary schools within a mile or so of each other. All being affected on a daily basis

twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=09

According to LBC no tests currently available in virus hotspots!

@EducatingArti

twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=09

According to LBC no tests currently available in virus hotspots!

Am how badly it is going.

Good to see Johnson is in parliament this afternoon focusing on Brexit and ignoring covid

Of course each child’s education is important, I don’t think anyone is saying otherwise. However there is no denying that primary aged children certainly early years have a far longer period in which to bridge a gap. And I’m saying that with dc who are 6 & 9. My youngest dc in particular has benefited hugely by the 5 months at home.

@RepeatSwan that's really bad.

@EducatingArti

twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=09

According to LBC no tests currently available in virus hotspots!

Childminders and some nurseries here now have a policy that children must have a negative test before being allowed back (14 day quarantine isn’t sufficient). This is so wasteful of tests and means people who need them can’t get them.

What a terrible situation we're in when people feel they have to fight for their children's right to education at the expense of others. Primary and secondary school pupils deserve full time, high quality education, urgently and equally. This should be a national priority with the requisite government funding and support.

My children are primary age and I am hopeful that primaries will continue to be prioritised (for economic rather than educational or social reasons) but I really worry for secondary students.

Rather than close schools, they've made it impossible to get a test so your child can attend school. Both mine caught a cold and last week the school demanded a test before they could come back. Fine, got tested and they attended Friday. Today they both have lingering coughs from the cold so the school wants ANOTHER test before they can come back 🤦‍♀️ I explained its from the cold they've already been tested for, but because it's a 'new cough for them' they can't come back. No tests available either.

@Macramacious

Rather than close schools, they've made it impossible to get a test so your child can attend school. Both mine caught a cold and last week the school demanded a test before they could come back. Fine, got tested and they attended Friday. Today they both have lingering coughs from the cold so the school wants ANOTHER test before they can come back 🤦‍♀️ I explained its from the cold they've already been tested for, but because it's a 'new cough for them' they can't come back. No tests available either.

This was my point, when I stated that the schools will not survive long without implementing measures.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54152867

850 schools now affected. 87 of those with multiple cases. Thats 10.2% of affected schools, last week it was 6% of affected schools which had multiple cases. London is an area with particularly bad reporting so figures likely to be much higher.

Today's figures for those not on SM

883 UK Schools now with Coronavirus infections among the school population

• 115 Scotland
• 70 Northern Ireland
• 61 Wales
• 637 England

I'm not in a hotspot. There are no tests available. I've been trying since yesterday to get one. The schools small supply ran out on day one and they have also been trying to get more.

Wonder how many billions will be wasted by government to create something like this. Lockdown checker that checks for restrictions in your area.

www.lockdownapi.com/

883 out of 32,000 schools in the UK.

Of course there were going to be cases in schools. Did anyone really think there wouldnt be?!

Just localised sporadic closures going forward, with almost all schools remaining open.

I'm also in a lowish infection area, albeit in the south east. No test sites available, at all.

Loads of schools impacted by me in Birmingham. More than 50 now and not all are reported.

Both my DCs' (y10) schools have a couple of cases. Areas like this will be hit hardest. Divides between different parts of the country. More inequality in education.

@Juststopswimming

883 out of 32,000 schools in the UK.

Of course there were going to be cases in schools. Did anyone really think there wouldnt be?!

883 isn't too bad at the moment but the majority of schools have only been open a couple of weeks. If the cases follow the trajectory I put in the op then by half term most schools would have been affected. A lot of the schools so far are isolated cases but the number of larger outbreaks are also increasing by the day. The biggest question of course is how all this will affect the national figures overall. How it could affect daily cases, hospitalisations and ultimately deaths.

Unfortunately we seem to be on track for the 1380 I quoted by the end of week 2 which averages out to Thursday at best guess, due to the various first days back up and down the country.

I really thought there would be a lot of cases.

However, lots of comments in advance (on here)

• children up to age 18 can't catch it

• children can't pass it on

• something or other about being hit by lightning was more likely

• no teacher ever got it in a school or something

Suddenly no one is saying any of this any more!

But what now?

There's more guidance due on Friday, I think.

Luckily for the government the shortage of tests keeps school closures down