How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

I completely agree Marsha but I’m adding some balance to all the teenagers should just study at home bollocks.

I view education as extremely important. Children of all ages missing months of education is a national disaster and should never have happened. Some children, especially from deprived back grounds, will never catch up. Some children have horrific home lives and school was their sanctuary.

I find it astonishing how many posters are quite happy to hand over other people children’s rights (and curiously it seems to be the age group that their own children aren’t). Some posters should be ashamed of themselves.

Drag I agree. All children have the same right.

Drag inactually agree with you there. I never once said Secondary age students should be at home! Or even have blended learning.

I simply pointed out that primary education was important also!

Others on the thread habe been very quick to suggest that primary school children should be a home to enable high schools to remain open.

As for blended learning / part time schooling - I can only speak from my own perspective. We made it work as best we could for the term and a half we had to do it. We managed but it was a real struggle and we were physically and mentally exhausted at the end if it. I am really worried that we wouldn't be able to manage it again.

While many countries don't start 'school' until 6 or 7 most of those kids are in a full time kindergarten spending time learning their letters and number through play.
They aren't sitting at home watching Cbeebies.

Nobody is saying teens should just study at home. People are saying its easier for them to do it than it is for younger kids.

Ideally schools should not need to close again but we aren't in ideal times. Adults aren't listening making their own risk assessments and thinking that if my kid can go to school with 30 other kids it fine to go about as normal.

Government need to be absolutely crystal clear about rules and why they are in place.

Lol @Bikingbear p6 maths homework (pre lockdown) just about broke me! And I got an A in higher maths back in the day

But why is it easier for teenagers to study at home?
I could teach a 5yr old (for the benefit of doubt I don’t want to) reading and writing but couldn’t support my teenager with higher physics.

Why so keen to sign teenagers education away? Is it because your children are at primary school?

A teen doing Higher physics should be capable of opening up a tablet reading what they are being asked to do and do it. If they are good enough to get on the course they shouldn't need too much parental support

A 5yo could hardly read what they are being asked to do. Nevermind get on and do it. Parents can easily f*up what they are teaching. Passing on their own bad habits, making it a nightmare for teachers to undo later.

Teen = independent
5yo = dependant on parents competence and time.

No teenagers need to be taught their subject, properly, with qualified teachers.

@Bikingbear

A teen doing Higher physics should be capable of opening up a tablet reading what they are being asked to do and do it. If they are good enough to get on the course they shouldn't need too much parental support

A 5yo could hardly read what they are being asked to do. Nevermind get on and do it. Parents can easily f*up what they are teaching. Passing on their own bad habits, making it a nightmare for teachers to undo later.

Teen = independent
5yo = dependant on parents competence and time.

Biking I disagree. A teen won’t need much parental support but they need to be taught complex subjects by a teacher, and this is more effective in class.

I know I could do phonics but it dies t mean I think reception should be denied school.

Why imagine what others should get on with and argue for a lack of provision?

@Bikingbear

A teen doing Higher physics should be capable of opening up a tablet reading what they are being asked to do and do it. If they are good enough to get on the course they shouldn't need too much parental support

A 5yo could hardly read what they are being asked to do. Nevermind get on and do it. Parents can easily f*up what they are teaching. Passing on their own bad habits, making it a nightmare for teachers to undo later.

Teen = independent
5yo = dependant on parents competence and time.

But even if they are really good at a subject they can’t teach themselves. If they could why do they bother with school at all?

Mine is brilliant at maths and on some sort of fast track programme. There are still things he gets stuck on and needs help with from a teacher. I can help with maths to some extent but not fully

Plus some secondary children are not independent. My youngest is autistic and needs constant encouragement

The challenges for primary and secondary with schools being closed are definitely different. On one level I am glad that if schools close I can work and leave them alone all day as I know I couldn’t if they were in primary. Ok my youngest would do bugger all work but he doesn’t require constant parental interaction

Tbh the big worry is the lack of ASN support. My youngest missed all his enhanced transition and is supposed to be in an autism base and he’s just been plonked in mainstream

I'm not arguing that secondary should close but secondary kids are better placed to learn independently than primary kids.

We can't assume that primary kids will have a parent able to help, either through lack of time or their own lack of ability.

Primary kids are also more likely to have preschool siblings who are viving for attention and trying to distract.

I'm not saying this because my kids are young. I know homeschooling isn't easy for any age group. But I know that they will end up altering the exam marking to account for the lack of learning in schools.
How many people actually use their Higher Physics without it being retaught to them at college or uni?

@Bikingbear

I'm not arguing that secondary should close but secondary kids are better placed to learn independently than primary kids.

We can't assume that primary kids will have a parent able to help, either through lack of time or their own lack of ability.

Primary kids are also more likely to have preschool siblings who are viving for attention and trying to distract.

I'm not saying this because my kids are young. I know homeschooling isn't easy for any age group. But I know that they will end up altering the exam marking to account for the lack of learning in schools.
How many people actually use their Higher Physics without it being retaught to them at college or uni?

Some secondary kids might be in some subjects. By no means all

You are absolutely saying it because your kids are young. I get it, everyone puts their own first but you have no rights to sign away teenagers education.
When you have teenager you’ll realise that, actually, they’re not all that independent and that’s why they go to school.

Biking if you don’t have a child that age it’s hard to imagine. You can only assume.

School is very important to exam years.

I agree. Just because teenagers don’t require constant parental input doesn’t mean that they can effectively teach themselves.

In my personal view, you cannot build the house without steady fundamentals. Unfortunately, not all parents are helping their children at home, but without the base they cannot help themselves via various technologies. I spoke with my friend (USA) that her child age 5 is in front of the laptop for 6 hours watching lessons. She doesn't get any of it. Children that age are learning via social interaction and play. Taking it away at such a young age might have serious implications both psychological and educational. Although, the former education doesn't start until 6/7 in some of the countries, the children are in nursery or kindergarten since they are 3. They also stay in the compulsory education until they are 18/19.

Being mums a 5 yo stuck in front of a laptop for hours really isn't great.

It's such a shit time for kids.

While I'm getting slated for saying secondary kids are more able to deal with homeschooling than primary. I never really thought about the social side. Again primary kids are more adversely affected again they don't have phones and social media to maintain relationships with pals.

If a primary parent doesn't understand what kids are being asked to do they can ask the question.
I guess it's quite embarrassing for a secondary kid "Hi Teacher, its Bob's mum here, can you help me explain x" as a primary parent you can kind of get away with it but there again I'd expect a secondary kid to be able to ask the questions themselves.

It does t have to be either / or.

Both ages - exam and early years are crucial. Of course each side will argue for resource when there’s a perceived lack. But better to agree we all should get the education needed.

So I can’t agree with all the points against exam years receiving full education in school.

I don’t think anyone is stating you @bikingbear it’s just a difference of opinion and perhaps also a slight lack of understanding at just what teenagers are like and what they need, even smart/clever/switched on ones (sorry if that sounds arsey, I don’t mean it to).

I know teenagers are so much more grown up than wee ones in primary but they still are only kids and can’t really be expected to work the way adults do. Look at the amount of adults wfh who struggle to get motivated and do it even when they have tons to do. You’re right that they can ask teachers questions themselves though but so can older primary school children.

I’m really worried for schools to close. I know some people found it easier to transition to homeschooling we didn’t.
I have a year 6 child who really found hard to focus just doing worksheets - I tried to bring in other sources but both husband and I also trying to work as well. I felt like I was being pulled every which way and failing everyone.
I also have a year 13 whilst she was able to do the work more independent and they had a few online lessons - I don’t know much about her subjects. So could offer little support.
I hadn’t had the time to get up to speed to prepare for the support and help that both my children needed and deserved for homeschooling- it was hard.
I’ve still got my job - I’m one of 2 the other is a male with no children - when redundancies happen (and they will) how do you select? The person who isn’t always contactable as she is also possibly trying to homeschool in the future and be a parent or the man with no ties :(

Secondary should be prioritised especially for 15-18yr olds

Agree. Primary classes were prioritised after May half term, so they had their turn. If a group needs to be prioritised this time, it should be Y13 and 11, followed by 12 and 10.

Sixth formers do need teaching. Otherwise we can do away with sixth forms and colleges and save oodles of money. However it doesn't work like that.

Exam years are screwed already. They were screwed before the school doors re-opened to everyone.

Remember we have a duty and a moral obligation to keep schools open at all costs. Nothing about education iirc in that speech.

Doing your exams this year/next year and they are fucked. How many secondary bubbles have now closed? Those won't be getting an education because the government said no to anything other than full time schools open.

Secondary mine is at, the work they are sending out if stuff they have already covered. Great start to the GCSE years. They don't have online presence other than the basics that OFSTEd require. The work is paper packs, and for the subjects far too many links if they are stuck. Getting support from some of his teachers won't be an option as they are ill.

If he was in school, he would see teachers a couple of times a week and would be able to ask questions directly.

Now email and hope your teacher isn't ill.

Not the schools fault and they are doing the best they can. They've been upfront throughout about the difficulties they face.

It's the fuckwits in government who decided to cut their funds.
It's the government fuckwits who decided that schools don't need any additional funding to pay for this.
It's the government fuckwits who have given zero thought about what happens when children are at home. I know this couldn't be planned for, however it's disgraceful that with all the tech we have, in 2020, any child who is off because of health falls behind because of those gaps in education.

@cologne4711

Secondary should be prioritised especially for 15-18yr olds

Agree. Primary classes were prioritised after May half term, so they had their turn. If a group needs to be prioritised this time, it should be Y13 and 11, followed by 12 and 10.

Sixth formers do need teaching. Otherwise we can do away with sixth forms and colleges and save oodles of money. However it doesn't work like that.

The disparity between secondary and primary was shocking. Primary had all these lovely online resources to turn to. Primary got mentioned a lot on the gov website Primary cobbled together leaving stuff

Secondary nothing. Forgotten about until after June but even then as a second thought because of the realisation that oh, year 6 need to do all their transfer stuff.

Only opening to 25% yr10 and 12 last term was a huge error. That was a lot of missed learning time. It was too low a threshold.