How long before schools are closed again?

[2X4B523P]

How long do we think it’ll be before schools are back to being closed to most children for the foreseeable future?

I, along with many other posters on here were advocating part time schooling to hopefully keep them going throughout the winter. As it is I couldn’t see them lasting much more than another three weeks.

On the 19th August I estimated there would be close to 7000 schools affected by the end of week four and the path to that figure is playing out at the moment.

I took the outbreaks reported in Scotland after one week of opening and scaled up for the difference in Scottish daily positive tests at that time and those in England. That gave a figure of 490 by the end of the first week. I didn’t differentiate between any nation, I just applied it into a UK total. I then calculated the figure if the cases were to double each week.

In excess of 490 schools were affected by Thursday 10th. That point was pretty much one week as for England no children started before Tuesday last week but I know of many schools which started back on the Thursday after two teacher training days. There was some children I know personally that didn’t start back until the Monday of this week. Also take into account that there will be a day or so lag in receiving a positive test.

I had no scientific fact to cases doubling each week in schools, just an opinion that this could happen due to the lack of any social distancing. This is playing out nationally with cases said to be doubling every seven to eight days at the moment. What makes it worse is there has been a recent increase in middle aged people becoming infected and could also start to affect the older generations with the associated high hospitalisations and deaths.

IF we get to 6900 schools affected by the end of week four I can’t see that schools won’t be on some form of national closure. Particularly if, heaven forbid, teachers and school staff start dying.

Using my formula the total figure at the end of each week would be:

Week 1: 490
Week 2: 1380
Week 3: 3220
Week 4: 6900
Week 5: 14260
Week 6: 28980

I’ve got 2 children in secondary, the youngest having just moved up, so I am more than well aware of the differences between primary and secondary education @Bikingbear. I still think secondary education, other than for childcare, is more critical and should be prioritised. Plus many secondary children cannot work independently due to ASN. My youngest son probably needs more support than primary kids 2/3 years younger.

Secondary kids doing subjects with a practical element or lab work cannot do this from home.

I used to work in both Primaries and Secondaries and from my experience the Primary would be probably prioritised.

Does anyone know how many full school closures there have been so far (as opposed to bubbles)?

Secondary should be prioritised especially for 15-18yr olds. Younger children can catch up but the exam years are extremely important.

@TheDragQueen

Secondary should be prioritised especially for 15-18yr olds. Younger children can catch up but the exam years are extremely important.

Agree with this

They need to be in school

@beingmums

I used to work in both Primaries and Secondaries and from my experience the Primary would be probably prioritised.

They will be for childcare but for education they shouldn’t be. Secondary is more important if there has to be a choice

Just because your kids are in high school, don't dismiss how critical it is for young children to be at school.

My DS missed over 1/2 his first year at school. He isn't getting that time back and him and his cohorts missed valuable time learning the basics.

Some children are already months behind and they may never get to the level they would have been without Covid when they leave school.

Blended learning doesn't really work for this age group.

Blended learning doesn’t work for anyone but it gets very tiresome reading how teenagers should just study online. And this is invariably posted by people with small children.

Teenagers deserve a proper education.

Yes, I do know. I remember my own children being in primary very well. But we cannot have exam years children being screwed again. It cannot happen. It’s too important.

@TheDragQueen

Blended learning doesn’t work for anyone but it gets very tiresome reading how teenagers should just study online. And this is invariably posted by people with small children. Teenagers deserve a proper education.

Exactly

If anyone can tell me how kids are meant to study advanced highers, not to mention practical subjects like art, PE, tech online, I’m all ears.

It’s a shit sandwich. All kids education should have equal priority. But I am fed up with the school of thought that secondary kids can just study online and primary needs to be prioritised, which seems to be largely for childcare, despite the “schools are not childcare” line that has been fed to parents for years.

Nobody is saying teenagers don't deserve a proper education but how can young children who aren't competent readers learn online?
Teens probably have better ability to use IT, send photos of their art to teachers and discuss with teachers too.
I can't imagine groups of kids are huddled round the bunsen burner anyway with the need for stuff to be sanitised between pupils.

In an ideal world all kids would be in full time education but we aren't in an ideal world in ideal times.

It's also easier to socially distance primary kids. Keeping one class together with one teacher.

You could argue that teenagers (especially 15-18yrs) could reasonably be expected to be able to socially distance and wash their hands properly and should be in school.
Primary school children won’t be able to do that and should be at home.

@Bikingbear

Nobody is saying teenagers don't deserve a proper education but how can young children who aren't competent readers learn online? Teens probably have better ability to use IT, send photos of their art to teachers and discuss with teachers too. I can't imagine groups of kids are huddled round the bunsen burner anyway with the need for stuff to be sanitised between pupils.

In an ideal world all kids would be in full time education but we aren't in an ideal world in ideal times.

It's also easier to socially distance primary kids. Keeping one class together with one teacher.

But if they are part time they won’t get to discuss things with the teacher because when they aren’t in school the teacher will be teaching the other half of the class.

Higher art and tech subjects really can’t be done from home. Kids don’t have the equipment to do it. My nephew is sitting higher design and manufacture. How on earth can he do that from home?

@Bikingbear I’d hazard a guess you’d manage to teach your kid to read better than I’d manage to teach mine Nat 5 chemistry and graphics

Teaching phonics is easier than helping with further maths

DragQueen this is true.
But people tend to be better at SD with strangers rather than friends. People seem to be complacent with friends.

I actually think the exam boards will end up having to make allowances within the marking process for the disruption to learning.

To answer you question OP:-

I think all schools will be closed in 5 weeks time.

Although I think we are all sick of prioritisation of education by year or occupation. My yr 5 didn’t go for six months to allow for small bubbles. It was shite and I get we’re all sick if it and want them to be in ft.

Marsha but that is what you and others have been doing on this thread.

How many hours a day did you habe to spend teaching your yr5?

Its all very well saying its easy to teach phonics.

But a 5 year old child needs a parent devoting all their attention to them when doing phonics, reading, writing, maths etc. They can't just get on with it themselves.

So even though it is 'easy its really not that easy especially when you are trying to support other children and you are both working.

[quote MadameBlobby]@Bikingbear I’d hazard a guess you’d manage to teach your kid to read better than I’d manage to teach mine Nat 5 chemistry and graphics [/quote]
Have you seen my spelling???

Loads of adults add constants to the end off vowel sounds which then screws up kids when they try to blend words together.

I managed to get the answer to a P4 maths question but no clue how to explain how I got there or what the right way was to do it. Teacher explained it online to me! DH shook his head when I told him

Don't fancy my chances with Nat5 anything. I'd be hoping DC can make sense of it or ask the teacher themselves

Time I am saying I get it. It’s a different point to earlier one re further maths. It’s in addition to not wanting to wreck exam years. I don’t actually think anyone should get more hours, it should all be ft.

They don’t even start school in some countries till they are about 7 so I’m sure that the 5yr old will be fine missing yet more school.

Although I firmly believe that all children should be at school full time.

I don’t agree re starting at 7 as a reason to not provide schooling. It’s important in U.K. to give young dc the same start across the board.

@TheDragQueen

They don’t even start school in some countries till they are about 7 so I’m sure that the 5yr old will be fine missing yet more school. Although I firmly believe that all children should be at school full time.

But we are not in other countries.

The education system here is for them to start at a much younger age.