Plan if cases increase exponentially again

[BlueBlancmange]

Cases appear to be rising rapidly again. If deaths start increasing dramatically again too, how we will be able to contain things again, as surely another national lockdown is not feasible? Also since it's looking like there is long term damage in a high number of cases, there could end up being a lot of people with ongoing, possibly permanent physical issues.

I am optimistic about a vaccine, but I am starting to worry it might not arrive quickly enough to prevent a large scale disaster as things spiral out of control again.

Just listen to the (free if you have a tv licence) BBC news this morning. 3,000 new cases a day for the last 2 days. They is now concern for a second rapid spread. Problem warned to "familiarise themselves with the rules again"'and that they relaxed "too much" over summer - although hardly citizens ' fault given the mixed messages over work and the economy and safety from the government!

What "mixed messages". Lots of things opened but everyone (staff & customers) were told to continue social distancing and wear masks. Unfortunately, far too many people couldn't be arsed to do that, so things will get shut down again. All pretty simple to me. Lots of pubs/restaurants opened safely with minimal cases - a few had lots of cases and had to close. That's exactly how it was planned. Lots of people have been socialising carefully (small groups, maintaining social distancing) and not caused any spikes. Unfortunately other groups/communities have regarded the relaxations as a free for all and completely forgotten/ignored social distancing. We've all know for months that a balance has to be struck - far too many people have taken it too far and caused numbers to rise - now is the time to reign that back before it gets out of control.

I don’t think there are mixed messages, the guidelines and rules are very clear. It’s people choosing not to follow them rather than mixed messages.

Sansa makes sense.

The guidelines aren’t that confusing imo but one area that has been mixed is wfh

Most companies will make their own decision though

Yes it does, although on a temporary basis as immunity from cold-coronaviruses only lasts a few months. There is a theory that London may be near (temporary) herd immunity as 17% have antibodies to Covid-19, possibly another 17% or so have t-cell immunity and then a proportion have immunity from other coronaviruses. This may be why London hasn’t seen any huge increases in the virus recently. N.B. I am only describing this theory and not saying that I necessarily subscribe to it.

There may well be some cross-reactivity, but it seems that most people do nonetheless create antibodies. There are various hotspots with 60+% of people with antibodies... 93% in one place in Peru I believe.

@puffinkoala

There are not a high number or percentage of people with long term issues from covid-19. For most people, it is mild. Don't catastrophise

Well unless you think around half a million people isn't a high number.

As we haven't even had half a million positive tests in the UK it does seem a very high number.

I'm well aware that more people than have tested positive have had Covid, but including people who haven't had a positive test in the numbers of people who have long Covid isn't particularly helpful. Particularly as post viral syndrome - to a whole variety of viruses - is a well known phenomenon and there have been other illnesses circulating during the pandemic.

What mixed messages? How about "get out there, eat out to help out, get back to your office, get on the train and commute - the cities need you" followed by today "everyone has relaxed too much over the summer"

I'm not one for doom and gloom, but I do understand how this is leaving people wondering what exactly is going on.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

I don’t think there are mixed messages, the guidelines and rules are very clear. It’s people choosing not to follow them rather than mixed messages.

I think if you actually read the guidelines about six weeks ago, you got a very different vibe than Johnson was giving out in speeches. That is what is confusing.

The tone was all 'get back to normal' even if the guidelines weren't normal at all.

Johnson, sadly, can't do serious, he can't do leadership, I'm not sure he's even moved by people dying.

UK, especially England, has been super unlucky to have this PM for this crisis.

@BlippiToys I wonder if you’re our neck of the woods. Is the school SW?

Friends of ours in their 40s, both healthy have struggled to to get rid of their covid symptoms and still have issues with breathing And lack of taste and smell.

I feel local lockdowns are inevitable but I think the government will try to avoid a national lockdown unless the vast majority of councils have rapidly rising cases.

Yesterday I compiled a table of the latest cases in each council in England. I've attached it here in case you find it helpful. Apologies it is very long - there are 316 councils in England.

You can see that there are a huge number of areas that are actually doing "ok", which is rarely mentioned in the media.

I run www.covidmessenger.com, a coronavirus data service (we email subscribers with the number of cases in their council each day - you are welcome to sign up if you wish www.covidmessenger.com).

There is no doubt that the number of low prevalence areas has been falling every week for the last few weeks so everyone needs to be vigilant. And the situation can change incredibly quickly as we have seen in a number of councils in the last fortnight.

--

Get coronavirus case numbers in your local council area straight to your inbox every day. Sign up at www.covidmessenger.com

Antibody tests show that 10% of people have covid antibodies. 10% of the population is six million people. Most have had it and had no idea.

@Graciebobcat

Antibody tests show that 10% of people have covid antibodies. 10% of the population is six million people. Most have had it and had no idea.

This type of comment falls under the psychological heading of 'rationalisation'.

Of course many people had no or mild symptoms. This doesn't change the facts about covid. Covid is new, so no community immunity. If allowed to run unchecked, very high deaths would occur.

In addition to over 60,000 deaths, we also had a report yesterday that a further 300,000 people had long focus, with 60,000 badly affected.

The best time to catch covid is in the future, when treatment is better.

What "mixed messages". Lots of things opened but everyone (staff & customers) were told to continue social distancing and wear masks. Unfortunately, far too many people couldn't be arsed to do that, so things will get shut down again.

There has been an awful lot of arsey nitpicking about the rules, and lots of people being prepared to flout them (even beyond Barnard Castle)

It is as if there are people who want containment to fail, and that makes for a difficult winter for all of us, and a tragic one for some.

Social distancing and hand hygiene are the only things that are likely to reduce transmissions, and as the chorus is is that it "can't be done in schools, but schools must be open" it means that everywhere else must be really diligent to counterbalance.

Fortunately, a lot of people do keep 2m away. Which is what we all need to be doing, unless circumstances make it totally impossible

What mixed messages? How about "get out there, eat out to help out, get back to your office, get on the train and commute - the cities need you" followed by today "everyone has relaxed too much over the summer"

a) they want you back in work (and for DC school)
b) they want you to use Covid-safe businesses, with proper hygiene/distancing, to minimise the number of people who go bust
c) those two things aren't really related to how people conduct their social lives and family gatherings, where things have been too relaxed

The data I have seen suggests that 10% of people experience 'long covid'
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-long-term

In addition to over 60,000 deaths, we also had a report yesterday that a further 300,000 people had long focus, with 60,000 badly affected

Yes, same as with pneumonia, flu and other viruses. I'm not trying to minimise, just be realistic. There is far too much hyperbole.

@Graciebobcat

In addition to over 60,000 deaths, we also had a report yesterday that a further 300,000 people had long focus, with 60,000 badly affected

Yes, same as with pneumonia, flu and other viruses. I'm not trying to minimise, just be realistic. There is far too much hyperbole.

It is not 'the same' with pneumonia and flu.

Pneumonia is pretty uncommon amongst healthy people, it doesn't spread like covid. I won't catch pneumonia if my colleague develops it.

Flu does not cause these symptoms in 10% of people who have it mildly.

There is no hyperbole. The facts on covid come from research scientists who themselves say covid is very concerning. But scientists are not generally hyperbolic.

There is far too much minimising going on in my opinion. I understand why, psychologically, people feel the need to downplay it, but it doesn't change the facts.

'Post viral' kind of self explanatory?

We just didn't care previously, as it was unlikely to affect us

It took me 7 years to fully recover from pneumonia, the first year was bad and the rest was just meh.

That's viruses for you.

Viral pneumonia is contagious btw

It is a mixed message, their comms are poor.

Meanwhile, racing at Doncaster with crowds goes ahead today.

@scaevola

You probably need t ,catch up,with latest figures then, as all started rising again within about a week of each other. There really isn't any significant difference on that. And the difference between Sweden and the next worst neighbour isn't really significant either.

But it is the second highest of the Scandinavian/Baltic states, by a significant margin compared to some.

It's interesting how reputations stick, even when no longer supported by the numbers. Back in April/May, India was the poster-boy for how to do it 'right' and now look. And the narrative about a once 'successful' country is completely different to that surrounding one which was hard hit from the off, or one in which the issue has been 'weaponised' into a domestic political issue

Sweden off the quarantine list today ...

There may well be some cross-reactivity, but it seems that most people do nonetheless create antibodies. There are various hotspots with 60+% of people with antibodies... 93% in one place in Peru I believe

Interesting but lots of evidence that the antibodies often don’t last long.

including people who haven't had a positive test in the numbers of people who have long Covid isn't particularly helpful. Particularly as post viral syndrome - to a whole variety of viruses - is a well known phenomenon and there have been other illnesses circulating during the pandemic

Virtually no one with long Covid will have had a test as they weren’t generally available in March/April.

Long Covid is very different from other post viral symptoms in lots of ways but particularly in the way you can get completely better for a few days or even weeks and then relapse again (repeatedly). The collection of symptoms (everything from Covid toes, and menstrual irregularities to breathing difficulties and chest pain) is also unlike anything you would get in flu or any other virus I’ve ever come across.