Plan if cases increase exponentially again

[BlueBlancmange]

Cases appear to be rising rapidly again. If deaths start increasing dramatically again too, how we will be able to contain things again, as surely another national lockdown is not feasible? Also since it's looking like there is long term damage in a high number of cases, there could end up being a lot of people with ongoing, possibly permanent physical issues.

I am optimistic about a vaccine, but I am starting to worry it might not arrive quickly enough to prevent a large scale disaster as things spiral out of control again.

Well yes but Mumsnet would be pretty dull if we all stuck to 'only discussing things we have received full government briefing on' 

It certainly makes for fun reading that's for sure. "I'm responsible for this...", "I know somebody that is researching this...". Hmmm really?

I'm just waiting for somebody to say their partner is on SAGE or whatever it's called.

@WALKING2 - she said 90k of the workforce, as in 90,000. I know the NHS is struggling but I hope that isn't 90% of them. Maybe read twice, post once?

@mac12

My husband works with someone currently researching Long Covid - they increasingly believe Long Covid is Covid & those who walk away unscathed are v much in the minority

Where did he research that..on a bit of scrap paper in the spare bedroom? That is utter rubbish. Hasn't zoe put it at 1 in 10 symptomatic cases have symptoms longer than 3 weeks and 1 in 200 have long covid for months?

@roses2

Interestingly macron has softened from 'therecwill be no second lockdown' to 'a second lockdown can't be ruled out'.

Somewhere the government of every country has a second lockdown emergency plan. They need it if hospitals get close to being overwhelmed because once that happens we are at societal breakdown.

Of course everyone wants that not to happen.

Does anyone else feel like things are getting worryingly out of control? The numbers are growing startlingly. Schools local to me have opened and yet after just a few days, year groups / key stages /bubbles are closing all over the place, and yet Matt Hancock still stands there telling us schools are safe and covid secure. How can they possibly believe or say that? Why isn't this being reported on correctly?

@BlueBlancmange @Isitisntit I’m sure I read at least 10% and tiger if you got to the point of being admitted to hospital. I can’t remember where I read it but I only tend to read credible stuff. I’ll try and find it for you...

Sweden

Sweden is where we end eventually, once we've twatted around for however long it takes for people to come to terms with reality

We can't call it the Sweden model of course

[quote ChanceChanceChance]@roses2

Interestingly macron has softened from 'therecwill be no second lockdown' to 'a second lockdown can't be ruled out'.

Somewhere the government of every country has a second lockdown emergency plan. They need it if hospitals get close to being overwhelmed because once that happens we are at societal breakdown.

Of course everyone wants that not to happen.[/quote]
The whole do we close pubs first debate was based on a quote of “Schools are the last thing we WANT to close”. A careful use of language I thought.
I feel like the things that he thinks he will do he makes sure he is sound bited as saying he doesn’t want to - so that people will think it wasn’t the plan / isn’t his fault.
Either that of they’re completely random. Where is Boris anyway? And if things are reversing and our quarantine restrictions are starting to look even more stupid etc, when are the daily briefings going to restart?

It is highly unlikely that we will see vast numbers of hospitalizations or deaths because the rise in cases is amongst younger adults.. They do not get so ill, they are mostly healthy, many recover quickly and fully.
Also as a virus progresses through a population it weakens or becomes less "deadly".. It adapts as it doesn't want to kill its hosts.. Or it would die out.
Thus the cases we now see are in younger fitter people, mostly getting a milder version.
I think that frankly we should let this happen.. We need to start looking at herd immunity.
Sweden that took a different approach now has low rates of cases and low rates of hospitalisation.. Possibly one factor is their young healthy citizens probably got covid, recovered and have a degree of immunity.
Though I accept this is simplistic and there are lots of other factors at play.
But by locking down and isolating our young healthy population we haven't got rid of this virus we merely put off that part of the population getting it..

I think 4

Wow @Feminist10101 is responsible for over 90% of the NHS workforce )hmmconfused.... is she the government

3m (that’s million, not percent ) people work for the NHS in the UK. So 90,000 isn’t that many overall, but probably more significant than most people’s friends and family group.

I do work very closely (daily) with government public health experts to ensure that the most up to date information is interpreted correctly and guidance for staff updated to ensure they (and therefore patients) are kept as safe as possible.

“I think 4”

Sorry, leant on my phone, didn’t mean to post!

@PremierInn

Sweden

Sweden is where we end eventually, once we've twatted around for however long it takes for people to come to terms with reality

We can't call it the Sweden model of course

We can't do Sweden.

They have so many advantages - already have so much space, better health, no crowded housing, small classes etc. 50% single occupancy in homes!

We would have to be like Sweden. Sadly we are not. We are closer to the USA really. It's going great there I see

@Theredjellybean

It is highly unlikely that we will see vast numbers of hospitalizations or deaths because the rise in cases is amongst younger adults.. They do not get so ill, they are mostly healthy, many recover quickly and fully. Also as a virus progresses through a population it weakens or becomes less "deadly".. It adapts as it doesn't want to kill its hosts.. Or it would die out. Thus the cases we now see are in younger fitter people, mostly getting a milder version. I think that frankly we should let this happen.. We need to start looking at herd immunity. Sweden that took a different approach now has low rates of cases and low rates of hospitalisation.. Possibly one factor is their young healthy citizens probably got covid, recovered and have a degree of immunity. Though I accept this is simplistic and there are lots of other factors at play. But by locking down and isolating our young healthy population we haven't got rid of this virus we merely put off that part of the population getting it..

900 hospital admissions per day in Spain. Why is the UK different?

I know 4 people who have had Covid and 10 who have tested positive for antibodies after being asymptomatic. None have long term affects that we know of. But that is my experience which doesn’t mean anything as it is a tiny sample.
Long term Covid does exist but we have no idea of the prevalence of it and the research around it is problematic:

1. We are not identifying everyone who has been infected with Covid due to the number of asymptomatic cases (we have research surveillance which gives us a guess but without identifying the cases we can’t follow them up)
2. It doesn’t have a fixed recognised definition- at the moment most research I’ve seen has considered that anyone with symptoms after 2 weeks has long Covid. Flu often takes more than two weeks to recover from so Covid taking longer than 2 weeks is hardly surprising. I think when you break it down it is very few who have symptoms beyond a month. Of course we know there are those who have symptoms for months and this is a worry and needs research but we are muddying the water by lumping these two groups together.
3. Lots of the research is using self reporting of symptoms and not actual diagnostic tests. Self reporting is important but is different to actual imaging that shows something for example scarring on the lungs.

I would assume that there would be local, small lock downs. Like in Manchester, etc. No going round peoples houses, possible shutting pubs and gyms if things get bad. But keeping offices, schools, other businesses open?

@JacobReesMogadishu

I would assume that there would be local, small lock downs. Like in Manchester, etc. No going round peoples houses, possible shutting pubs and gyms if things get bad. But keeping offices, schools, other businesses open?

Except they are not working

@ChanceChanceChance

Agree - because just harking back to the thread title, if cases are rising exponentially it means that all other control techniques have failed, so national lockdown is all that remains.

Estimates of what proportion of the population have had it vary, but isn't it usually under about 20%? It would be a very nasty outbreak if we saw exponential growth across c.80% of the population. Not necessarily deaths, but the impact of mass sickness over a couple of months.

There's no slack in NHS in winter. If we want to avoid the halting again of other treatments (that were Covid paused) then we really must not get to this point. And that means having to trust that the community realises the importance of transmission control measures and that there is a high level of compliance

It's all very well saying another lockdown is not possible, but if deaths rise rapidly again surely we will have to 🤷‍♀️

@Isitisntit

There are not a high number or percentage of people with long term issues from covid-19. For most people, it is mild. Don't catastrophise

There is a high percentage of people on this board who have to spin the worst case scenarios.

They were in March predicting rioting, the Army on the street, cuts in electricity and water supplies, morgues in Hyde park and deaths in the millions.

Then they moved on to berating everyone who dared step outside their house for being reckless and irresponsible. Lots of stuff about how the deaths were much higher than official figures.

Now the deaths are way, way down and the hospital admissions are tiny, they've moved to this idea that if you don't die now, you will in the long-term because everyone gets this long covid and have it FOREVER.

They're not happy unless they have something to scaremonger about.

There is no plan. We just have to get on with it - herd immunity, accept that people will die from it (and I say that as someone who was / is in the clinically vulnerable shielding group) and just live with it. That’s all we can do. There is no vaccine, there may never be a vaccine. So it’s either pack yourself and your kids away and have no life or just crack on and hope for the best.

All this “Covid-secure” crap is just that, crap. Nothing can ever be 100% secure. We need to stop brandishing the phrase about as if it means anything.

@Bagelsandbrie I think you are right.

[quote ChanceChanceChance]@roses2

Interestingly macron has softened from 'therecwill be no second lockdown' to 'a second lockdown can't be ruled out'.

Somewhere the government of every country has a second lockdown emergency plan. They need it if hospitals get close to being overwhelmed because once that happens we are at societal breakdown.

Of course everyone wants that not to happen.[/quote]
Yes you're right I forgot the first lockdown was to stop hospitals being over whelmed and not to stop the general population catching covid.

Except they are not working

We need to be doing as much as possible to find out why the populations in some areas aren't complying with local lockdowns, the problem isn't the approach imo it's not knowing why residents are ignoring the risks

The steaming horseshit being spouted all over this thread! 😂😂😂