Plan if cases increase exponentially again

[BlueBlancmange]

Cases appear to be rising rapidly again. If deaths start increasing dramatically again too, how we will be able to contain things again, as surely another national lockdown is not feasible? Also since it's looking like there is long term damage in a high number of cases, there could end up being a lot of people with ongoing, possibly permanent physical issues.

I am optimistic about a vaccine, but I am starting to worry it might not arrive quickly enough to prevent a large scale disaster as things spiral out of control again.

If numbers really begin to rise I think they will start to roll out vaccination ahead of the trials finishing. They have data, it's safe

I would assume that there would be local, small lock downs. Like in Manchester, etc. No going round peoples houses, possible shutting pubs and gyms if things get bad. But keeping offices, schools, other businesses open?

Is keeping schools and offices open preventing any improvement? No mixing of households or indoor meetings etc... except for when you are at school and all rules go out the window

@Bagelsandbrie

There is no plan. We just have to get on with it - herd immunity, accept that people will die from it (and I say that as someone who was / is in the clinically vulnerable shielding group) and just live with it. That’s all we can do. There is no vaccine, there may never be a vaccine. So it’s either pack yourself and your kids away and have no life or just crack on and hope for the best.

All this “Covid-secure” crap is just that, crap. Nothing can ever be 100% secure. We need to stop brandishing the phrase about as if it means anything.

This, 100%

"Now the deaths are way, way down and the hospital admissions are tiny, they've moved to this idea that if you don't die now, you will in the long-term because everyone gets this long covid and have it FOREVER.

They're not happy unless they have something to scaremonger about."

Don't be silly. Long covid IS covid...

Totally agree with you.

Long Covid isn’t that long yet of course- not when we know most pneumonia takes months to recover form and many viruses cause a longer term fatigue in some people

I know about 30 people who have had it or were tested positive asymptomatically as part of NHS workplace testing and only one was very unwell (although still not hospitalised) and is still out of sorts although is back at work part time.

Cars are rising- hospitalisation sand death rates aren’t.

Let’s see that as a positive

Hospitalisations are not rising because the age group most affected are younger, this happened in France, now over there, hospitalisations & deaths are going up as CV spreads into the wider community.

In mid july, france had 500 cases per day, now 7000! we recorded almost 3000 yesterday.

These are very worrying numbers, we are still not testing care home staff or nhs workers regularly and are pushing to reduce WFH.

I think the govt's plan is to see what happens and then look to blame someone else.

I’m responsible for 90k of the NHS workforce.

Must take a bloody long time to do their annual appraisals!!

Three months ago @AlternativePerspective posted this on another thread. I personally think it is still spot on:

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www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3940273-2-new-Covid-cases-in-New-Zealand

This potentially controversial, but I think that it’s actually possible that some countries shut down too early, as much as people want to blame our’s and other governments for not shutting down early enough. New Zealand and China have both had reoccurences of COVID, although relatively small outbreaks.

Not shutting down as early does mean that some people will have been exposed to COVID and may even have had it a-symptomatically without knowing and developed some immunity. If you cut that off before it has even spread a little bit, then you run the risk that when you re-open, you have an entire population who haven’t been exposed at all and who are all still as vulnerable as they were before the initial shutdown.

I had wondered whether the countries who shut down so quickly and who were praised for it were being a bit too confident about saying that they had eradicated the virus when other countries were still in the stages of fighting it. It was inevitable that some people would have gone back into those countries and taken COVID with them, and with an entirely untouched population this would spread.

I think that our shutting down later might actually end up being to our benefit in the long run. And before anyone jumps on me and suggests I think that the number of deaths is a good thing, of course it isn’t. But while shutting down early might have prevented deaths this time round, if we had done that and then opened up too early the number of deaths could have been far worse.

As for the vaccine, things have gone very quiet on that score for a number of reasons. Firstly because it’s perceived the numbers are actually dropping so quickly that it’s impossible to test the efficacy of a vaccine, and secondly because while there have been a number of trials, none of them have been effective in creating immunity against the entire virus.

The key is going to be effective treatment and herd immunity, so that less people are likely to catch it. But that is going to be a long-term thing. And in the meantime we as a world population are going to have to learn to live with COVID, or hope that it burns out, which is still a possibility.

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If cases rise exponentially again, I expect to see a flustered Matt Hancock on TV trying to avoid the issue of inadequate test availability. He'll tell us 'Cases are rising. How would we know they're rising if we weren't testing? If only the public didn't test for every cough or fever, then we could test the right people'

It would be interesting to look at the groups who are being routinely tested - sports clubs, film shoots etc and see how many asymptotic positive tests they’re picking up.

@Theredjellybean

It is highly unlikely that we will see vast numbers of hospitalizations or deaths because the rise in cases is amongst younger adults.. They do not get so ill, they are mostly healthy, many recover quickly and fully. Also as a virus progresses through a population it weakens or becomes less "deadly".. It adapts as it doesn't want to kill its hosts.. Or it would die out. Thus the cases we now see are in younger fitter people, mostly getting a milder version. I think that frankly we should let this happen.. We need to start looking at herd immunity. Sweden that took a different approach now has low rates of cases and low rates of hospitalisation.. Possibly one factor is their young healthy citizens probably got covid, recovered and have a degree of immunity. Though I accept this is simplistic and there are lots of other factors at play. But by locking down and isolating our young healthy population we haven't got rid of this virus we merely put off that part of the population getting it..

I said more or less this on another thread & got told by a poster that I didn't know what I was on about especially the bit 'Also as a virus progresses through a population it weakens or becomes less "deadly".. It adapts as it doesn't want to kill its hosts.. Or it would die out.' Well that usually happens.

I couldn't be bothered to argue with that armchair expert as had far more better things to do.

Cases are already increasing exponentially (as soon as R is above 1). They’re just increasing at a slower rate (doubling every three weeks instead of every three days).

They’ll tell people to ‘shield’ (a much wider category - the obese etc). Of course this will be ignored. Then the media will report no more hospital beds (the typical winter flu chaos but magnified) and people will be scared of their own accord, and minimise contact. That’s the best case scenario for the government.

In the meantime they’ll use this ruckus to push some Brexit monstrosity.

@Growgrassgreen

I would assume that there would be local, small lock downs. Like in Manchester, etc. No going round peoples houses, possible shutting pubs and gyms if things get bad. But keeping offices, schools, other businesses open?

Is keeping schools and offices open preventing any improvement? No mixing of households or indoor meetings etc... except for when you are at school and all rules go out the window

But the schools and majority of businesses need to be kept open firstly for the economy (parents can't work if looking after kids) and secondly for the education of the kids and their futures.

It would be stupid to throw both of those under the bus when deaths and hospitalisation are so low. As long as the nhs can manage we should carry on. Hopefully reducing some contacts by banning household mixings and mass gatherings such as concerts, clubs, maybe pubs then that will help slow the spread so the nhs can manage. Alternative is another full lockdown which we can't afford.

From the government, quoted in the Guardian this morning

"A government source said there was significant concern that the UK was “six weeks behind France”, where the trajectory showed more young people being infected, leading to increased hospitalisations of vulnerable groups"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/06/coronavirus-fears-uk-government-lost-control-cases-soar?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Those shouting about other people catastrophising are talking utter, uninformed, no doubt self motivated bollocks.

shedpaint indeed.
And as I said iptgread there are some groups being tested routinely - sports clubs, film sets etc we must add up to thousands per week.
It would be interesting to see the rate of asymptotic/extremely mild cases in that group.

And what is the current death rate in France?

@PhilCornwall1

I’m responsible for 90k of the NHS workforce.

Must take a bloody long time to do their annual appraisals!!

Mynameisnotmichaelcaine, interesting as 2 years is what I would say it took me to get back after adult chicken pox in my twenties

If anyone has illness I have heard doctor' s advice that you should never be tempted to "sweat it out" because of the risk to your heart, yes even in young fit people!

These are good reasons to not be blasé about catching covid.

@TheKeatingFive

And what is the current death rate in France?

As of yesterday, it was 0.3 per 100,000 (up from 0.1 a few days ago)

Spain is at 1.2 (up from 0.3 a few days ago)

(Source ECDC)

What they are seeing in death rates reflects transmissions approximately 3 weeks ago (about a week to symptoms, about a further week to hospital, and then another week to ICU and/or death)

Regarding deathbrate, here's what happened in Florida:

1. Lockdown lifted
2. Cv starts spreading, but that's ok its amongst the young and they get mild cases. Hospitalizations and deaths v low.
3. Average age of cv patients starts increasing, but that's ok, hospitalizations and deaths v low.
4. Oh look, hospitalizations are creeping up but that's ok, death rate is still very low (wait 3 weeks)
5. Oh shit, death rare soaring but that's ok, most victims are black

Sad, but true.

We cant stop spread entirely but neither is widespread infection safe.

fairly sure the government doesn't have a clear plan.
I do think the long term answer however might be regular testing (weekly if not more frequently) of EVERYONE. The quick saliva test which is being trialled in Salford (and perhaps other places) could be the key to this. But I don't think they're yet sure how reliable it is.

I had long Covid. It wasn’t much fun, and symptoms lingered for months.
5.5 months on I am now back to ‘normal’.
I had a very similar experience with flu when I was at uni... it took around a year to fully recover.

@PhilCornwall1

I’m responsible for 90k of the NHS workforce.

Must take a bloody long time to do their annual appraisals!!

Okay, if we’re being pedantic I’m responsible for the safety and well-being of 90k NHS staff during this pandemic.

What they are seeing in death rates reflects transmissions approximately 3 weeks ago (about a week to symptoms, about a further week to hospital, and then another week to ICU and/or death)

Cases have been rising for weeks and weeks now (7/8+)

Those death rates are still much, much lower than March-June.

Local lockdowns, not sure to what degree though as the Government have already said schools will stay open (whilst they have the teachers able to work that is!) and it's not looking likely that the economy can afford business' to close again..I'm not sure the Government do have a plan apart from everyone back to work & school.

If they ban all social contact outside of going to school or work that might do it. Would probably have to shut some businesses whose business is socialising too.