Plan if cases increase exponentially again

[BlueBlancmange]

Cases appear to be rising rapidly again. If deaths start increasing dramatically again too, how we will be able to contain things again, as surely another national lockdown is not feasible? Also since it's looking like there is long term damage in a high number of cases, there could end up being a lot of people with ongoing, possibly permanent physical issues.

I am optimistic about a vaccine, but I am starting to worry it might not arrive quickly enough to prevent a large scale disaster as things spiral out of control again.

@BlueBlancmange completely. People advocating for herd immunity & just letting this rip haven’t yet pieced together what we could be facing. Early on, around Feb I think, Benjamin Netanyahu said that if reinfection is confirmed then we could be facing the end of human civilisation.
I think it’s way too early to make that call & am hugely optimistic that science will find a solution to this, whether it’s behavioural (immediate fast testing) or vaccine/genetic medicine type solution.
In the meantime though, we should be seeking to limit infection as much as possible. We need to buy time for the science to solve this.

[quote mac12]@BlueBlancmange completely. People advocating for herd immunity & just letting this rip haven’t yet pieced together what we could be facing. Early on, around Feb I think, Benjamin Netanyahu said that if reinfection is confirmed then we could be facing the end of human civilisation.
I think it’s way too early to make that call & am hugely optimistic that science will find a solution to this, whether it’s behavioural (immediate fast testing) or vaccine/genetic medicine type solution.
In the meantime though, we should be seeking to limit infection as much as possible. We need to buy time for the science to solve this.[/quote]
Christ on a bike! The end of human civilisation, talk about catastrophising! It doesn't kill the vast majority of people infected. The pandemic of Drama Llama is really apparent.

if reinfection is confirmed then we could be facing the end of human civilisation

very dramatic! and yes it has been confirmed- and was very mild!

The pandemic of Drama Llama is really apparent.

Ain’t that the truth,

[quote mac12]@BlueBlancmange completely. People advocating for herd immunity & just letting this rip haven’t yet pieced together what we could be facing. Early on, around Feb I think, Benjamin Netanyahu said that if reinfection is confirmed then we could be facing the end of human civilisation.
I think it’s way too early to make that call & am hugely optimistic that science will find a solution to this, whether it’s behavioural (immediate fast testing) or vaccine/genetic medicine type solution.
In the meantime though, we should be seeking to limit infection as much as possible. We need to buy time for the science to solve this.[/quote]
The end of civilisation? Are you drunk? This is a mild illness in most who catch it.

[quote mac12]@BlueBlancmange completely. People advocating for herd immunity & just letting this rip haven’t yet pieced together what we could be facing. Early on, around Feb I think, Benjamin Netanyahu said that if reinfection is confirmed then we could be facing the end of human civilisation.
I think it’s way too early to make that call & am hugely optimistic that science will find a solution to this, whether it’s behavioural (immediate fast testing) or vaccine/genetic medicine type solution.
In the meantime though, we should be seeking to limit infection as much as possible. We need to buy time for the science to solve this.[/quote]
Yes I've also heard positive news with regard to potential therapeutics and rapid testing that could hopefully eventually be performed at home, so in addition to vaccines in development I would hope we will end up with a strong arsenal against the virus.

I'm not sure how much will be here this winter though, so we definitely all need to continue to play our part in limiting transmission as much as possible. But I definitely see light at the end of the tunnel.

[quote mac12]@BlueBlancmange completely. People advocating for herd immunity & just letting this rip haven’t yet pieced together what we could be facing. Early on, around Feb I think, Benjamin Netanyahu said that if reinfection is confirmed then we could be facing the end of human civilisation.
I think it’s way too early to make that call & am hugely optimistic that science will find a solution to this, whether it’s behavioural (immediate fast testing) or vaccine/genetic medicine type solution.
In the meantime though, we should be seeking to limit infection as much as possible. We need to buy time for the science to solve this.[/quote]
Oh for fucks sake. You are the poster who said that their husbands friends 'research' says that only a small minority of people don't get long Covid as well aren't you? Stop bullshitting and being such a drama queen. Jesus!

Clearly you missed the bit where I said I was hugely optimistic? And I was quoting the Israeli leader?
But if you think this is all a big fuss about nothing & we all need to go back to normal based on current IFR, then you’re missing the bigger picture.

@Delatron

What I will say about ‘long Covid’ is that it can’t be that long can it? The peak was March/April. So yes it may take 5 months for some to recover which is a long time but this can apply to other illnesses; Pneumonia, sepsis, flu all can take months to get better or can leave you with some inflammation, tiredness.

We aren’t years down the line yet. So we don’t know if these after effects will last for years do we?

Correct. We don’t know. So a bit of caution remains advisable over the “herd immunity” nonsense.

At the height of Israel’s battle against COVID-19 last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned several Knesset members from his Likud party that if reports from overseas of patients who had recovered from the virus again testing positive for it were accurate, humanity could be wiped out, a TV report claimed on Friday night.

“There are reports from overseas about reinfection,” Channel 12 news said the unnamed Likud MKs recalled Netanyahu saying. “If this is true,” the prime minister reportedly went on, “the significance could be the end of humanity.”

Others with whom the prime minister spoke to, the TV report said, do not remember him using that precise phrase, but say he warned that the pandemic could lead to “scenarios of global anarchy.”

www.timesofisrael.com/if-it-reinfects-virus-could-end-humanity-netanyahu-reportedly-warned-mks/

Well firstly some people says that Netanyahu didn't even say that. And secondly, even if he did, from that quote I would say he has about as much authority on the subject as your husband's mate. That statement he allegedly made has no basis in anything.

It's clear you don't know what you are talking about.

@Pixel77

Matt Hanjob trying to scare the young people with that perhaps, as they are in the majority of new cases. Noticed he also told them 'don't kill granny. Hmm.

On the immunity, some studies have shown people have immunity already from other viruses (T cell immunity) may be up to 45%. So need to add this to the others immune from covid, brings the 60% figure down doesn't it.

directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/07/28/immune-t-cells-may-offer-lasting-protection-against-covid-19/

No-one mentions Sweden anymore, but their rates are really low now - lower than other countries next to them..

Wonder why noone ever mentions Sweden?

You'd think that, with their non lockdown, the end of civilisation and streets filled with dead bodies, and flies, there would be a lot to talk about!

Apparently the four horsemen of the apocalypse are yet to make an appearance

Wtf does Netanyahu have to do with the price of eggs? We have our own actual experts on hand. What next? Trump says drink bleach so let's give it a go?

There are not a high number or percentage of people with long term issues from covid-19. For most people, it is mild. Don't catastrophise

Well unless you think around half a million people isn't a high number.

On the immunity, some studies have shown people have immunity already from other viruses (T cell immunity) may be up to 45%. So need to add this to the others immune from covid, brings the 60% figure down doesn't it

Yes it does, although on a temporary basis as immunity from cold-coronaviruses only lasts a few months. There is a theory that London may be near (temporary) herd immunity as 17% have antibodies to Covid-19, possibly another 17% or so have t-cell immunity and then a proportion have immunity from other coronaviruses. This may be why London hasn’t seen any huge increases in the virus recently. N.B. I am only describing this theory and not saying that I necessarily subscribe to it.

I know very few people who've had it, but two have long covid. Well one has recovered in the last week or so. The other has not, and is constantly having spikes in temperature etc. She thinks she got it in mid March. We are in September.

"On the immunity, some studies have shown people have immunity already from other viruses"

No, the studies have shown they might have, it's a hypothesis.

"There are also preliminary hints that some people might have a degree of preexisting immunity against the new coronavirus. Four independent groups of scientists—based in the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, and Singapore—have now found that 20 to 50 percent of people who were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2 nonetheless have significant numbers of T-cells that can recognize it. These “cross-reactive” cells likely emerged when their owners were infected by other, related coronaviruses, including the four mild ones that cause a third of common colds, and the many that infect other animals.

But Farber cautions that having these cross-reactive T-cells “tells you absolutely nothing about protection.” It’s intuitive to think they would be protective, but immunology is where intuition goes to die. The T-cells might do nothing. There’s an outside chance that they could predispose people to more severe disease. We can’t know for sure without recruiting lots of volunteers, checking their T-cell levels, and following them over a long period of time to see who gets infected—and how badly.

Even if the cross-reactive cells are beneficial, remember that T-cells act by blowing up infected cells. As such, they’re unlikely to stop people from getting infected in the first place, but might reduce the severity of those infections."
www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/

There was a study on USA, I am really sorry I don't have time to search for the link as it was ages ago I saw it, suggesting that in a prison population of mostly younger people the vast majority....I think 80 or more percent, were asymptomatic. But, more worryingly, of those asymptomatic cases a very high percentage (possibly a majority, can't remember) had suffered lung damage. I don't know what that might mean for their long term health. An absence of symptoms at the time of an infection does not mean an absence of damage to your body, in multiple possible ways.

I think I had covid back in April. I did not feel ill, just loss smell and to some extent taste, and don't consider myself to have long covid but at this point I still can't smell many things and what I can smell is revoltingly distorted. I wouldn't recommend even a mild case.

No-one mentions Sweden anymore, but their rates are really low now - lower than other countries next to them

ECDC data contradicts that (which might be why people aren't mentioning it)

by, country, cases per 100,000 and death per 100,000

Sweden - 19.7, 0.1

Norway - 17.3, 0.0
Finland - 6.4, 0.0
Lithuania - 16.0, 0.1
Latvia - 4.7, 0.1
EstonIa - 18.4, 0.1

The only neighbour who is higher is Denmark 24.5, 0.1.

I think (and I may be wrong) that Sweden is on a downward trajectory whereas the other Scandinavian countries, as they are opening up are seeing cases rising?

@Delatron

I think (and I may be wrong) that Sweden is on a downward trajectory whereas the other Scandinavian countries, as they are opening up are seeing cases rising?

Sweden is showing a jagged rise from their summer low (the figures do hop around a bit from day to day).

The others are not rising faster

@Pixel77

Matt Hanjob trying to scare the young people with that perhaps, as they are in the majority of new cases. Noticed he also told them 'don't kill granny. Hmm.

On the immunity, some studies have shown people have immunity already from other viruses (T cell immunity) may be up to 45%. So need to add this to the others immune from covid, brings the 60% figure down doesn't it.

directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/07/28/immune-t-cells-may-offer-lasting-protection-against-covid-19/

No-one mentions Sweden anymore, but their rates are really low now - lower than other countries next to them..

The T-cells research is being wildly misrepresented. The actual study says that T-cells MAY reduce disease severity, not stop people getting the disease entirely (that's how T-cells usually work).

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1293344524731691008.html

Having the cross reactive T-cells may benefit you, if you get less ill, but it doesn't benefit anyone else, as you still get ill and can still pass the disease on.

So you can't count those people towards herd immunity.

Herd immunity can't be achieved without a vaccine, it really is that simple.

The figures I saw for Sweden showed a continued fall, below levels in Norway and Denmark (which are rising after a lull in the summer)
As predicted by the Swedish model, basically. Play the long game rather than in and out of lockdown with ups and downs every time you stop/start

You probably need t ,catch up,with latest figures then, as all started rising again within about a week of each other. There really isn't any significant difference on that. And the difference between Sweden and the next worst neighbour isn't really significant either.

But it is the second highest of the Scandinavian/Baltic states, by a significant margin compared to some.

It's interesting how reputations stick, even when no longer supported by the numbers. Back in April/May, India was the poster-boy for how to do it 'right' and now look. And the narrative about a once 'successful' country is completely different to that surrounding one which was hard hit from the off, or one in which the issue has been 'weaponised' into a domestic political issue

Oh ok, this was three days ago. Its behind the times and telegraph paywalls though. Whats happened in three days? Or were the figures they quote wrong?