Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

But you can't reconcile those two things belina : all children returning full time requires all staff on site. I have no idea how Germany is managing this, but no UK school can afford to have essentially their shielding teacher WFH in some capacity and then hire schools to cover their normal timetable. That is why I said earlier I think essentially many vulnerable staff will hand in their notice.

The Times reports today that 6 teachers have died in the US.Obviously the link to school is not necessarily established before anyone says this but I am not sure how you can ever definitively prove this .

@whatsnext2 - I said that it was less likely in a primary school that one of two known children infected had access to 21 adult staff to be the original source than that one of the adult staff did. That is based on logic about access to people above the known scientific research that children spread less than adults. As I keep saying, this has happened multiple times now and highlights very clearly that adult to adult transmission looks like a big risk to adults in schools, so some schools need to change plans to be more careful with distancing of staff (not just teachers). I have not and would not say definitively who was the root of any infection, because I cannot know for certain. Your original point was that it was spread by children, so your backup point was there must be other infected children who infected all 21 staff without infecting each other, their parents, their siblings etc etc etc. Occam's Razor applies, I am sorry you don't like it but it's fair to point out that you are being illogical.

In fact reading further into the article is rather sobering. There is a claim that 210 teachers have died in the last school year (again many won't be occupationally related) and there seem to be more than the six stated cases recently.

The cases come against the backdrop of some Trumpian rhetoric over funding of schools.

@Piggywaspushed - Germany has far more teachers per student, which will give more scope. The comparison with France and Germany was quite shocking, I'm afraid I can't source the numbers for you right now but I think they are on statista.

The Times reports today that 6 teachers have died in the US.Obviously the link to school is not necessarily established before anyone says this but I am not sure how you can ever definitively prove this .

This rings a bell. I don't think many if any cases were linked to the school.

Their profession had not impact on their death.

A further nine people who tested positive for coronavirus have died in hospital in England, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals to 29,648, NHS England said on Friday.

A further nine people who tested positive for coronavirus have died in hospital in England,

Patients were aged between 79 and 88 years old and all had known underlying health conditions.

The dates of the deaths were between 8 and 10 September and seven occurred in the North West region.

No new deaths were recorded in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

The dates of the deaths were between 8 and 10 September and seven occurred in the North West region.

No new deaths were recorded in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

79 to 88 all with underlying health conditions...

time would we /do we say that of a bus driver or NHS worker, though?
certainly, one is said to have picked it up coaching children over the summer. They seem to know this definitively.

@Piggywaspushed

time would we /do we say that of a bus driver or NHS worker, though? certainly, one is said to have picked it up coaching children over the summer. They seem to know this definitively.

If a person catches the virus outwith their workplace then their place of work is irrelevant.

I don't understand what you mean?

Data for today still not out in cases.

Interesting about deaths above and that despite the huge rise in cases of younger people the deaths are older people.

I'd be interested to know the data on whether it's community acquired transmission, hospital or care home.

Because that would tell us if the high infections in younger age group are getting into wider community or not?

@Piggywaspushed

But you can't reconcile those two things belina : all children returning full time requires all staff on site. I have no idea how Germany is managing this, but no UK school can afford to have essentially their shielding teacher WFH in some capacity and then hire schools to cover their normal timetable. That is why I said earlier I think essentially many vulnerable staff will hand in their notice.

The Times reports today that 6 teachers have died in the US.Obviously the link to school is not necessarily established before anyone says this but I am not sure how you can ever definitively prove this .

... Germany has more teachers proportionally (retention is not a big problem, as German teachers are 4th best paid in the world)

and schools received more funding, both for extra staff and training for existing staff to enable online teaching (WFH & in case schools go pt again)

This issue is quite easily resolved by money

There is a thread here regarding the article on teachers dying in the US (or 4 of them at least) None of them caught it at school.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4019776-Four-teachers-have-died-of-Covid-19-in-USA

3539, and now saying please don't refresh until 16:47.

3539 new cases just announced on sky.

Indeed BCF which is not, sadly, what we will get here!

Does anyone know the percentage of positive tests please?
And also if the percentage is more relevant in relation to the WHO’s guidance stating it shouldn’t be above 3%.
My mum says she thinks she read it is 6% but can’t remember where she read it!

@MRex my point was that children can transmit the virus, and it is most logical that there was a mix of transmission vectors between staff and students. Your point was that it all had to be adult/adult staff which was Illogical. Occams razor too. We don't know who was infected in the wider community or how testing was carried out, or even what SD measures there were in place in the school.

I totally agree with BCF's statement that children transmit less due to ACE2 receptors, but I'm sure no teacher on here would feel 100% safe relying on that without any other measures.

my sister is a secondary school teacher in germany.
she teaches as usual. the classes are relatively small (24 pupils) and the room is quite bit, desks spaced out.
she is behind a clear shower curtain screen or wears a mask.
staff staying home for shielding reasons or quaratining are expected to mark and to provide online lessons for shielding pupils.
I don't know though if that's just her school in her bundesland.

@sunseekin that was shown in the slides by CW for the 19-21 age bracket

Overall the number is lower. I haven't seen what it is after last couple of days.

Ouch at today's cases figures. Don't think we are anywhere near 6% sunseekin. If you say we tend to process in region of 175,000 per day, 3500 would 2% but don't have the exact figure for today. France have been hitting 5% though.

Changing the subject, there appears to be something odd happening at tameside hospital. 39% of England's hospital deaths in the last 7 days (17/44) and some speculation it's due to spread in in-patients.

mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1304431000009805824

Looking at the graph on gov U.K. site the gradient on the graph is mirroring that of back in March when we had exponential growth.

I know back then it was registering only 5k cases when it's been calculated at possibly 100k.

But it's still very worrying. Not so much of a flattened curve.

Nearly right.... 17-18 with the 19-21 not far behind

@sunseekin 0.8%

@pinkbalconyrailing

my sister is a secondary school teacher in germany. she teaches as usual. the classes are relatively small (24 pupils) and the room is quite bit, desks spaced out. she is behind a clear shower curtain screen or wears a mask. staff staying home for shielding reasons or quaratining are expected to mark and to provide online lessons for shielding pupils. I don't know though if that's just her school in her bundesland.

I'm was never shielding but I have pretty bad asthma so CV.

I'm mixing with 4 "bubbles" of Sen pupils, including around 25 staff.

I'm very aware that I can transmit to them as well as potentially them to me.

We have no masks or visors nor is it possible to always SD (not at all with some pupils.)

@sunseekin sorry forgot the link

ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=table&year=latest&time=earliest..latest