Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@herecomesthsun - Any single case (teachers and admin staff, not just students) is already publicly logged as part of cases in the local area; you're right that an official log of number affected and number of contacts in isolation as a result is useful. There are two issues:

1. Figures for a single case (most likely acquired outside school) are being conflated with the term "outbreak", which is where there is transmission. We most importantly need to know if there is any transmission within schools, as with any other place, because that indicates risks that the practices in place aren't keeping people safe. Tracking single cases would be important for isolation and therefore education affected, but if they aren't leading to transmission then the risk mitigations have arguably been sufficient. Exciting "500" type of figures make people excessively nervous, while not contributing effectively to either of those two useful purposes.
2. That Facebook group is not providing balanced information, they are including articles about "suspected covid" - i.e. someone's ill, but not even a test so could be something else. They are including close contacts isolating as affected, without being clear those people haven't had positive test results nor symptoms. Verified data or sensible sources (scientists, official sites) are more useful or you don't actually know what the facts are.

DPH for Gateshead on BBC New Channels about ten minutes ago,

Steep rise in cases in Gateshead (as in many other places obviously)., however she then stated 1300 fewer individuals tested in first week of September as compared with the previous week. Gave average age of those testing positive as 37, implied (but not stated explicitly) that this based on those testing positive in the last week.

Just on different subject, and picking up on some earlier comments, whilst some may not like it we have to remember and above all respect that health is a devolved matter in the UK, and that it is not going to be changing any time soon at least

she then stated 1300 fewer individuals tested in first week of September as compared with the previous week.

What could be the reasons/ implications of this?

Not enough tests? Not getting all cases?

@NeurotrashWarrior

she then stated 1300 fewer individuals tested in first week of September as compared with the previous week.

What could be the reasons/ implications of this?

Not enough tests? Not getting all cases?

reading some testing related threads it's because test centres are too far away for many requiring a test.

Interesting article in that they're setting up a system for whistle blowing on unsafe businesses.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/no-p-around-gateshead-council-18913873

1300 is

Just on different subject, and picking up on some earlier comments, whilst some may not like it we have to remember and above allrespectthat health is adevolvedmatter in the UK, and that it is not going to be changingany time soon at least

If this was directed at me then yes, I do understand and respect that.

In fact I voted for it...........

@MRex

• I agree officially collected data on instances in schools would be great, but that doesn't seem to be available for some reason. The BRTUS stuff does provide some information about an important area, otherwise overlooked and so is of value.

• as you know, it is very difficult for people to actually get tested at the moment so knowing about areas of concern has a value, especially for the ECV who want to avoid areas where there may be a risk.

• we occasionally have fieldmice in the house (deep countryside). Hubby may catch one in his humane trap and takes it for a long walk in the woods, to recommune with nature. On his return, he tends to announce "I've got rid of the MOUSE".

Highly infectious disease transmission cases are a bit like mice, in that they don't originate de novo, and also they tend to give rise to other ones really quite fast. So by the time you have spotted/ caught one there are likely to be a few others running around.

Picking up one case should be a warning to look for, isolate, quarantine, test etc. It is really sloppy government thinking to say, oh we've picked up one, problem over.

(happy to discuss further)

As regards the possibility of transmission in schools, schools are not immune from the scientific principles of infection transmission. I can see no reason why 1 case found in schools wouldn't give rise to others. (& of course we need to look for them)

Conversely, 2 cases in the same school does not irrevocably prove they arose in school, they could have arisen on the bus maybe, or at a very limited and specific social encounter at the weekend, who knows, or by chance , from different sources, which will get more lively as community prevalence increases. To be sure, you would need a history of movements and possibly RNA sequencing.

ONS survey is out. It confirms an increase in community infections, predominantly in younger people.

An estimated 39 700 within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 30 August to 5 September 2020, equating to around 1 in 1,400 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 1,900 to 1 in 1,000).

•	The most recent modelled estimate suggests the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.
•	In recent weeks, there has been an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years whereas the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 50 years and over appears to be stable or declining.

I respect that too. I just think that a pandemic needs a joined up approach.

@Bercows

Well, I'm not sure this government are capable of a joined up approach. And possibly they do not want one.

ouch:
www.statnews.com/2020/09/10/hell-has-frozen-over-pharmaceutical-industry-stands-in-for-politically-impaired-fda/

The ONS survey report will in time cover reports in educational settings. The latest one is here but doesnt cover the period after schools went back. www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

In the absence of data there will inevitably be speculation and anecdote. When that means people becoming aware of a risk I consider it justified, not if that risk is being exaggerated or based on suspicions.

That's a savage takedown of the FDA. Good to hear the drugs companies are being cautious.

24th September for Track & Trace app in England

Very useful analysis, by Wellcome Trust & others, of possible COVID scenarios and future planning:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/looking-ahead-prepare-tomorrow-covid-19-futures-beth-thompson-mbe/

To create a unique long and deep perspective, we asked a group of experts from anthropology, economics, epidemiology, global health, public policy and virus biology to answer this challenge.

Together we developed four potential futures, based in coronavirus biology and medical developments, such as a vaccine.

•	Future 1 - “Vaccines work, antivirals fail”
•	Future 2 - “Antivirals work, vaccines fail”
•	Future 3 - “Medical interventions are effective and evolution works for us”
•	Future 4 - “Medical interventions fail and evolution works against us"

We combined these with five imaginary settings across the world, each with different political, economic and societal features – from a high income country to a refugee camp.

Combining the four futures and five settings, we look ahead five years to understand more about what the future might hold.

This thought experiment isn’t a prediction but a tool to imagine and explore what could happen.

[quote herecomesthsun]**@MRex

• I agree officially collected data on instances in schools would be great, but that doesn't seem to be available for some reason. The BRTUS stuff does provide some information about an important area, otherwise overlooked and so is of value.

• as you know, it is very difficult for people to actually get tested at the moment so knowing about areas of concern has a value, especially for the ECV who want to avoid areas where there may be a risk.

• we occasionally have fieldmice in the house (deep countryside). Hubby may catch one in his humane trap and takes it for a long walk in the woods, to recommune with nature. On his return, he tends to announce "I've got rid of the MOUSE".

Highly infectious disease transmission cases are a bit like mice, in that they don't originate de novo, and also they tend to give rise to other ones really quite fast. So by the time you have spotted/ caught one there are likely to be a few others running around.

Picking up one case should be a warning to look for, isolate, quarantine, test etc. It is really sloppy government thinking to say, oh we've picked up one, problem over.

(happy to discuss further)

As regards the possibility of transmission in schools, schools are not immune from the scientific principles of infection transmission. I can see no reason why 1 case found in schools wouldn't give rise to others. (& of course we need to look for them)

Conversely, 2 cases in the same school does not irrevocably prove they arose in school, they could have arisen on the bus maybe, or at a very limited and specific social encounter at the weekend, who knows, or by chance , from different sources, which will get more lively as community prevalence increases. To be sure, you would need a history of movements and possibly RNA sequencing.[/quote]
Totally agree. Had more or less same discussion with @MRex on previous thread on 30 Aug, so i doubt further discussion would be illuminating.

We seem have two polarised viewpoints in one camp believing that children cannot transmit this virus, unlike all other virus; and the other that schools are too dangerous to send children to.

"We seem have two polarised viewpoints in one camp believing that children cannot transmit this virus, unlike all other virus; and the other that schools are too dangerous to send children to"

I think most of us with a maths / science background take a pragmatic view in the middle, based on the evidence so far.

My personal view - which I would change if the evidence does:

For children pre-puberty it seems their much lower level of ACE receptor expression makes it more difficult for the virus to take hold - these develop more over the years after puberty until full adulthood.

The risk to children themselves is absolutely tiny, less than other circulating illnesses they face.
A very small % of children are at increased risk - compared to other children - but even for them, this risk is rarely higher than for adults < 40

However, children can transmit the virus to older people, but less than adults do, the younger the child, the less transmission risk on average

Despite this, imo parents should be allowed to keep home previously shielded children,

partly because we must usually ask parents' permission before subjecting their child to even the tiniest risks
but also because pragmatically if serious harm does come to any child, it is overwhelmingly likely it would be to a child would formerly be classed as shielded.

.

Spiegelhalter: Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/370/bmj.m3259.full.pdf

David Spiegelhalter@d_spiegel

My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate
the huge range of risks from COVID-19 experienced by people of different ages
...
Risk of catching and dying from Covid-19 doubles for each 6 years older,
all the way from childhood to old age, overwhelms other factors.

Extraordinary consistent gradient:
13% increase per year like some horrible form of compound interest
......
The risk of death from COVID-19 if infected,
roughly similar to the risk of dying from all other causes over the next year,
therefore essentially doubling the risk.

Bit more than a year's worth for over 55s,
less for under 55s
......
Conclusion:
dominating effect of age highlights the need for caution at intergenerational meetings.

As a simple guide, younger people should be particularly cautious around those over 55

(NB Only look at death: do not yet have good data on long-term morbidity)

I absolutely agree with bigchocs last post on schools/children. I would say previously shielding teachers should also be given the option to work from home (at least this term) with funding provided to make this happen.

Ultimately though I believe for the vast majority of children the benefits of schools being open full time outweigh the risks of covid-19

I also agree with @BigChocFrenzy and have posted exactly those points in the past. @whatsnext2 certainly did not find me saying "children cannot transmit this virus, unlike all other virus" on 30th August, nor at any other time, that is a blatant lie.

There are differences in risk by age, amongst other factors. It's reasonable to recognise those.

@MRex You insisted that the school outbreak in Scotland that I cited could only have occurred by staff to staff transmission and not via children.

Lockdown restrictions in Birmingham and other midland cities

About time IMO. They never had a good handle on it there

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-54117532?atcustom4=99572B28-F435-11EA-A6A8-067896E8478F&attmedium=custom7&atcustom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&attcustom2=facebookpage&attcampaign=64&atcustom3=BBC+News&fbclid=IwAR0rt8UVIPKQdmP4Wzmf1Oboh1J3K9CRnUZZgwpYk39qK21pt0DUP1WXAE&fbclid=IwAR3aqUdEgWh0oBfSjFelwA6bPXgYQG6JwNV0eHKKOLIYnGHi6z4sGw0vpr0&fbclid=IwAR2WvE5u7FtIpXg8ZGjgz4Y3EtOK9phoqAtxzDSKCGAavQS1iYZVnEQLcl8&fbclid=IwAR1LFGkrdeVTWXJOlTLZS-zlyQQ_B-dLX0yYld6MMzc9cm3U0A7rc1OAAcrE&fbclid=IwAR238Z1DzwxvnA6b1LVIkifg6-gAmfiwUenHQf5NB902yGf7bxhTucw1Ucc

At least we all seem to be agreeing that there is an increase in cases now.