Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote Littlebelina]Ouch at today's cases figures. Don't think we are anywhere near 6% sunseekin. If you say we tend to process in region of 175,000 per day, 3500 would 2% but don't have the exact figure for today. France have been hitting 5% though.

Changing the subject, there appears to be something odd happening at tameside hospital. 39% of England's hospital deaths in the last 7 days (17/44) and some speculation it's due to spread in in-patients.

mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1304431000009805824[/quote]
Yes saw the 2% but thinking given the trouble with getting tests at the moment a pillar 2 percentage would be very interesting. Pillar 4 and 1 could possibly dilute what is happening for a while?

If anyone knows if the data exists please let me know, otherwise I’ll try and have a dig later!

Today's figures are a bit of a shocker. I hope it doesn't keep on increasing at this rate.

Our pupils NEED to be in school. I'm concerned that lack of certain measures are going to make it much harder to continue to do this.

[quote PrayingandHoping]@sunseekin sorry forgot the link

ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=table&year=latest&time=earliest..latest[/quote]
Thanks! Do you know if it’s all pillars please?

I really think we need to move away from the focus on case numbers. Case numbers only matter if they are turning into hospital admissions and deaths.

Clearly there is a lag but there is no sign at all of that happening in the U.K.- only 6 reported today (some possibly not even due to COVID).

Deaths and hospital admissions have risen in countries like France and Spain but are still nowhere near what they were in April(only 25 in France). Only 6% of ICU beds in Spain are occupied by COVID patients.

@Ecosse I agree.... but....
Most of the cases are in the north west.... and the hospital rates on the north west are rising

Cases are important in terms of age groups. There's currently a large number of younger people catching it.

That could easily start to change which will impact hospitals.

Does anyone know when the Weekly CV Surveillance report will be issued - Govt website still showing week 36 and it's supposed to be available on Thurs unless they've changed it

Getting a little bit concerned as I'm north of Birmingham & south of Greater Manchester. Cases rising day after day after day.

Bercows - I hope you and DC are ok.

Ecosse in response to your comment.

It is only 1 Dr's opinion. But one person who is on the front line and the data is clear. The hospital admissions are rising.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/covid-red-alert-birmingham-hospitals-18912398

We can continue to stick our heads in the sand or we can try and put the brakes on this exponential growth.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/covid-red-alert-birmingham-hospitals-18912398

Hi @pussycatinboots

The figures today are a jump. I've not heard what GM's are today yet.

@Twindsworth

Hospital admissions up 81 in 3 days it's a steep rise

Wow yes that is a steep rise.

And dependent on how it's spread out it could show doubling every 3 days.
Do you have a breakdown of how many each day?

@NeurotrashWarrior

But there is just no evidence from countries like Spain and France which are weeks ahead of us that hospitals are being overwhelmed or hundreds of people are dying.

There is no evidence to justify crashing the economy or DC’s education which is what a second lockdown would do.

I don't think there's going to be any lockdowns unless hospitals do start to get overwhelmed. And schools aren't closing; the most is likely to be blended learning.

Schools have to limit infections quickly though. Or the school will close.

The priority is to to protect hospitals and schools.

Hosptials near me in France are under pressure and intensive care is full. Dont fall into the trap ( easy I know) of thinking this wont transfer into admissions.

I can't imagine anyone on this calm and rational thread advocating for another lockdown @Ecosse

However, the posters here do understand exponential growth and the need to cut it off with new measures when it starts. They are also aware of the lag between the curve of cases rising and the curve of hospital admissions and deaths.

Hipussycat!

@Ecosse

I really think we need to move away from the focus on case numbers. Case numbers only matter if they are turning into hospital admissions and deaths.

Clearly there is a lag but there is no sign at all of that happening in the U.K.- only 6 reported today (some possibly not even due to COVID).

Deaths and hospital admissions have risen in countries like France and Spain but are still nowhere near what they were in April(only 25 in France). Only 6% of ICU beds in Spain are occupied by COVID patients.

The lag in Spain has been about six weeks.

We can't compare the figures now and the figures in April, because the true numbers of infected people in April would have been in the 100,000s- they just weren't detected.

The situation now is more like the situation in mid February IMO, when we could have taken steps to prevent a full lockdown and didn't. If we continue to do nothing, or very little, it's likely we will end up with death numbers that are comparable to April again- but they will happen in November, as winter flu is also kicking in.

Pre print, so caution, study of household contacts showing equal transmission by children and adults.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.10.20169912v1

Just checked data and a week ago there was 79 admissions. Today 141. So close to doubling in a week.
Over the week it has fluctuated in numbers between 67-99. So from 99 to 141 that's quite a jump in a day along with another 700 odd cases.

Watching.

Surveillance report out at last.

Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in household and community settings in the United Kingdom

Transmission calculations - age, incubation time, attack rate etc BEFORE lockdown
Dataset was people who developed symptoms between 24th January 2020 and 13th March 2020

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.19.20177188v1

"In the UK, prior to the implementation of social and physical distancing measures, we estimate an

overall household SAR of 37% < secondary attack rate = probability of transmission between first case and each household contact>
a serial interval of 4.67 days < incubation period >
an R0 of 1.85
and a household reproduction number of 2.33

We find lower secondary attack rates in larger households

There is some suggestion that where the primary case is a child,
household SARs are higher and the serial interval is shorter.

Conversely serial intervals were longer if the household contact was a child or an older adult.
Using point source exposures we estimate a mean incubation period of around 4.5 days.

Hmmm... very interesting.

Is this suggesting that people need to distance more in their households (especially if someone is poorly?).It is, of course, impossible to distance oneself from an ill child.

"SARs were highest when the primary case was a child"

Does this mean that children appeared to be MORE contagious than adults?