We need to start measuring the impact of Covid-19 in a new way now - years of life lost.
Initially we used the death rate. Now the death rate is extremely low, but restrictions are still in place that causing massive harm to the economy, jobs and mental health, possibly worse than the direct effect of Covid itself.
For example, if a 78 year old dies of Covid-19, who could have been expected to live to 82, that's 4 years of life lost. An 18 year old who takes their own life because of not getting the A-levels has lost 64 years of life.
The loss of jobs, education and opportunities is going to lead to a surge in poverty that will take years off the lives of millions of people in this country, and is going to far outweigh the direct impact of the virus.
The initial lockdowns were in response to the need to protect the ventilators, as we watched the Italian situation unfold. We were never completely overwhelmed in the same way in the UK.
It's unclear now what the end game is. If it's to eradicate the virus, that's never going to happen. The idea was to protect NHS beds, but now cases are at an all time low and routine activity has not really got going again, patients have had operations cancelled and the waiting lists are getting even longer.
My biggest concern is local lockdowns. Many of the upticks are in areas where there is already lots of poverty and deprivation. Oldham, one of the poorest towns in the UK was threatened with a local lockdown which could have closed businesses again. The damage would have been unfathomable.
Compared to the beginning stages, when there was no community testing whatsoever (only severe cases in hospital were tested) we are better placed to deal with this now. I think it very unlikely we will a second wave like the first now that anyone can get a test and with contact tracing of some form in place.
My suggestion would be a flexible reintroduction of shielding in areas with an uptick of cases, but to introduce it generically for all patients above a certain age - perhaps 65, and those with health conditions that were on the original shielded list. When there is a spike in cases, the shielded group would be advised to limit unnecessary travel, avoid indoor contact with other households, avoid gyms, restaurants and other high risk activities.
That would seem more sensible to me than shutting down whole areas.